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If Not Artemi Panarin, Then Who?


Phil

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I'm weary of putting Point in the highest tier worth 4 1sts.

 

That's where I'm at, too. his point production over the last three years:

 

40 in 68 games

66 in 82 games

92 in 79 games

 

Is that natural progression to where he's going to level off, or a huge jump in production on a juggernaut team and outside of that he'll regress some? How much regression?

 

It'd be a risky proposition to sign that player at $10.5Mx7 or trade four first rounders for him if he were on a potential bargain contract of say $8Mx7. But to give up the assets AND pay top dollar as if he were a UFA?

 

I'm passing.

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Essentially the Bickel-for-Teravainen approach? I like that idea.

 

Sorta, yeah. I don't know if there are teams that would off an asset of Teravainen's quality here, but on July 2, there will be at least three teams that are desperate to shed cap space. If we've struck out on 7/1, we should be calling the teams that didn't, or that might already be up against it.

 

If we're emptyhanded on 7/2, I could be persuaded to eat the rest of Kesler, Getzlaf, Perry, Marleau, Demers, Goligoski, Colin Miller, Eakin, Callahan, Bjugstad, Reimer, Niskanen, and maybe a few others. Seeing as without those big names, we're not likely to be competitive before 2021, let's eat space and get paid for it.

 

The 2020 FA class is not exciting to me. There's nobody in that group that instantly makes us infinitely better. Just eat the garbage contract, get an asset for it, and live with the cap constraints while we've got 10 key players on ELCs.

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Haven't read the article yet, but personally I'm not convinced at all about going after Duchene in free agency.

Is he good? Yes. Is he elite? No, he's not. I'm not comfortable with the idea of a 33/34/35 year old Duchene on big money. He also strikes me as more of a wagon than a truck, to borrow a term from a podcast I listened to the other day. I.e., he's a very good player in the right situation but I'm doubtful he's the kind of guy that puts a team on his back. Panarin is, imo.

I don't really get the distatste for Duchene, he would be a great get for the Rangers precisely because he could be a "wagon" as the 2c behind Zib. Especially considering our hole at C, he could be an excellent add. Panarin at $12m might not be a better signing than Duchene at, say, $8m, without giving up RFA compensation. The problem is that someone is likely to pay Duch as a high-end 1c.

 

I think the conversation around NYR hasn't shifted enough to address the massive hole at C, or the fact that Kakko solves a lot of the issues on the wing. The Panarin talk started long before the lottery, and getting so lucky changed a lot of that, or should have.

 

Are we sure that a top-9 of:

 

Kreider - Zib - Buch

Kakko - Duchene - Chytil

Lias - Howden - Kravtsov

 

would be worse than:

 

Panarin - Zib - Buch

Lias- Chytil - Kakko

Lemieux - Howden - Kravtsov

 

I mean, is Panarin at $12m better than Kreider AND Duchene at $14m? I'd have a hard time buying that argument, especially when you haven't solved 2c with Panarin.

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I don't really get the distatste for Duchene, he would be a great get for the Rangers precisely because he could be a "wagon" as the 2c behind Zib. Especially considering our hole at C, he could be an excellent add. Panarin at $12m might not be a better signing than Duchene at, say, $8m, without giving up RFA compensation. The problem is that someone is likely to pay Duch as a high-end 1c.

 

I think the conversation around NYR hasn't shifted enough to address the massive hole at C, or the fact that Kakko solves a lot of the issues on the wing. The Panarin talk started long before the lottery, and getting so lucky changed a lot of that, or should have.

 

Are we sure that a top-9 of:

Kreider -Zib - Buch

Kakko - Duchene - Chytil

Lias - Howden - Kravtsov

 

would be worse than:

 

Panarin - Zib - Buch

Lias- Chytil - Kakko

Lemieux - Howden - Kravtsov

 

I mean, is Panarin at $12m better than Kreider AND Duchene at $14m? I'd have a hard time buying that argument, especially when you haven't solved 2c with Panarin.

 

All lefties.

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I'd argue this one, actually. For 2020, you're almost assuredly right - I can't argue that.

 

However, for two or three years down the line?

 

You'd be talking about a top of the lineup that looks something like this:

 

Kreider-Point-Kakko

Kravtsov-Zibanejad-Chytil

 

Miller-Fox

Hajek-Rykov

 

Georgiev/Shesterkin

 

Hard to imagine that top of the lineup not being competitive - not including Buchnevich in here, or Andersson, or any of the other pieces we'll pick up on the way.

 

I consider phrasing the question as "Would you give #15 in 2020, #24 in 2021, #32 in 2022 (hey, let's get some optimism), and #24-32 in 2023 for Point?" and I've gotta say...that's not a tough sell in my book.

 

Agreed. The firsts should certainly become less valuable year over year.

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I don't really get the distatste for Duchene, he would be a great get for the Rangers precisely because he could be a "wagon" as the 2c behind Zib. Especially considering our hole at C, he could be an excellent add. Panarin at $12m might not be a better signing than Duchene at, say, $8m, without giving up RFA compensation. The problem is that someone is likely to pay Duch as a high-end 1c.

 

I think the conversation around NYR hasn't shifted enough to address the massive hole at C, or the fact that Kakko solves a lot of the issues on the wing. The Panarin talk started long before the lottery, and getting so lucky changed a lot of that, or should have.

 

Are we sure that a top-9 of:

 

Kreider - Zib - Buch

Kakko - Duchene - Chytil

Lias - Howden - Kravtsov

 

would be worse than:

 

Panarin - Zib - Buch

Lias- Chytil - Kakko

Lemieux - Howden - Kravtsov

 

I mean, is Panarin at $12m better than Kreider AND Duchene at $14m? I'd have a hard time buying that argument, especially when you haven't solved 2c with Panarin.

 

Right now? Absolutely yes.

 

I wouldn't call it distaste for Duchene as much as you don't know what you're getting with him. Are you getting 70 point Duchene from last season or are you getting 55 point Duchene from basically the rest of his career? Hard to know if he's hitting a stride of consistency at a high level or if he just peaked and that's all you're paying for. Locked up to a 55 point player for 7-8 million over 5-7 years is big trouble. That's part of the reason why they traded Stepan.

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Agreed. The firsts should certainly become less valuable year over year.

 

Yup, and over the next few years, the deadline market is not exactly going to be littered with big prizes.

 

I'd also caution us to remember that cap realities change fast; we might not need to pay out 4 1st round picks for some of these players.

 

We'd also likely need to work out re-acquiring our conditional pick from Carolina if that's the case.

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Quality > quantity. Four firsts, traded separately, are unlikely to land you a 23-year-old point-per-game player.

 

Ok. So pretty much every gm ever disagrees with you. That’s why an offer sheet like you are recommending has never happened when 4 firsts was the compensation. If you are opening up a bid for 4 first round picks you will have more options than point. Money is also not a problem because that is already on the table because you are offering it to point to trigger the picks. Four picks has more value than point. Period. Four first picks can pretty much get you any player in the league, at least in terms of value.

 

Also are the rangers done rebuilding? Already? Trading or losing four first round picks when you are still rebuilding seems really smart. This is not the nba folks.

 

Seems odd that all these future first round picks are so easily disposed as lottery tickets. Yet all the previous first round picks of the past couple of years are obviously locks to become our nhl core. How exactly does that work?

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No to trading four 1sts for someone like Point.

 

If panarins not available then I’m fine staying the course.

 

Trade for Trouba. Sure up the D. And this team will be in the playoff hunt. I don’t need to spend 9m on Duechene or Skinner or any of the secondary options who aren’t game changers.

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Ok. So pretty much every gm ever disagrees with you. That’s why an offer sheet like you are recommending has never happened when 4 firsts was the compensation. If you are opening up a bid for 4 first round picks you will have more options than point. Money is also not a problem because that is already on the table because you are offering it to point to trigger the picks. Four picks has more value than point. Period. Four first picks can pretty much get you any player in the league, at least in terms of value.

 

You're arguing something entirely different than Phil is. Phil's saying that, separately, those four first round picks (as in what we did from like 2013-2016 where we traded four first rounders for MSL and Yandle), don't land you in any way a 23 year old PPG player.

 

I'd also argue that four 1sts doesn't get you anyone in the league, but that's another story. If we're sitting there thinking "yeah, we want to deal four 1sts and that gets us anyone", we'd be stupid not to call up Edmonton and ask around McDavid, or Florida and ask about Barkov. Both teams say no right off the bat, because a bird in the hand is worth four in the bush.

 

Also are the rangers done rebuilding? Already? Trading or losing four first round picks when you are still rebuilding seems really smart. This is not the nba folks.

 

If we end up with Panarin and/or Karlsson? Yeah, we're probably at the inflection point between "rebuilder" and "playoff team". The rebuild likely doesn't "end" until these players are in the NHL, but we'd be well within our right mind to say that we're no longer in "sell everything for futures" mode.

 

Seems odd that all these future first round picks are so easily disposed as lottery tickets. Yet all the previous first round picks of the past couple of years are obviously locks to become our nhl core. How exactly does that work?

 

Quite simple: we have much more information on K'Andre Miller than whomever we're going to pick with the 22nd overall in 2021. We also know that while drafting since the cap was instituted has largely been better than in the past, and gets better every year, we're HIGHLY unlikely to draft a player of Mitch Marner's or Brayden Point's caliber in the late 1st round or beyond.

 

Why choose the mystery box when you have, say, Point under contract until 2026 at a rate commensurate with a 2019 ppg center, and he doesn't even turn 30 until his contract ends?

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No to trading four 1sts for someone like Point.

 

If panarins not available then I’m fine staying the course.

 

Trade for Trouba. Sure up the D. And this team will be in the playoff hunt. I don’t need to spend 9m on Duechene or Skinner or any of the secondary options who aren’t game changers.

 

I don't want to trade for Trouba short of a steal of a deal.

 

I think he goes to arb w/Winnipeg and gets a monster 1 year like Stone did, then walks next year. No sense in moving on Trouba when you know leverage will move in your favor later on in the process.

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Ok. So pretty much every gm ever disagrees with you. That’s why an offer sheet like you are recommending has never happened when 4 firsts was the compensation. If you are opening up a bid for 4 first round picks you will have more options than point. Money is also not a problem because that is already on the table because you are offering it to point to trigger the picks. Four picks has more value than point. Period. Four first picks can pretty much get you any player in the league, at least in terms of value.

 

Also are the rangers done rebuilding? Already? Trading or losing four first round picks when you are still rebuilding seems really smart. This is not the nba folks.

 

Seems odd that all these future first round picks are so easily disposed as lottery tickets. Yet all the previous first round picks of the past couple of years are obviously locks to become our nhl core. How exactly does that work?

 

never been signed*

We dont know if theyve been offered.

 

Also, this season, we have not seen this many competitive teams at the cap ceiling with high-level RFAs

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Right now? Absolutely yes.

 

I wouldn't call it distaste for Duchene as much as you don't know what you're getting with him. Are you getting 70 point Duchene from last season or are you getting 55 point Duchene from basically the rest of his career? Hard to know if he's hitting a stride of consistency at a high level or if he just peaked and that's all you're paying for. Locked up to a 55 point player for 7-8 million over 5-7 years is big trouble. That's part of the reason why they traded Stepan.

I don't really know what math makes that true...

 

Could say the same about Panarin. Is he an 87-point player or a 76-point player? It's not like Duchene has never been a 70+ player before.

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never been signed*

We dont know if theyve been offered.

 

Also, this season, we have not seen this many competitive teams at the cap ceiling with high-level RFAs

No team has signed a player that required four first round picks as compensation and then was matched. That we do know. We do not know if teams ever negotiated to try and sign a player. Regardless the end result of a player leaving has never happened.

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[Re: All Lefties in a starting line-up

 

 

Lefty-Righty DOES matter—how do you not see the importance of positioning on the ice, PP, passing out of your zone on breakaways, etc..

 

 

Sent from my iPad using Blueshirts Brotherhood mobile app powered by Tapatalk

That is so insignificant as to not matter when you're talking about constructing a group of forwards. It's more of an issue on the backend.

 

You only need 1 righty for the PP, which they have.

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No team has signed a player that required four first round picks as compensation and then was matched. That we do know. We do not know if teams ever negotiated to try and sign a player. Regardless the end result of a player leaving has never happened.

 

Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong, but...

 

Shea Weber - matched.

Thomas Vanek - matched.

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That is so insignificant as to not matter when you're talking about constructing a group of forwards. It's more of an issue on the backend.

 

You only need 1 righty for the PP, which they have.

 

It's a lot easier to defend a team when the whole team is shooting from the same side of the ice.

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I don't want to trade for Trouba short of a steal of a deal.

 

I think he goes to arb w/Winnipeg and gets a monster 1 year like Stone did, then walks next year. No sense in moving on Trouba when you know leverage will move in your favor later on in the process.

 

I don't agree. You don't know what the landscape will be in a year, you don't know what kind of year Trouba will have, what if he has a monster year and prices himself out?. If he's available now, get him now. The team needs NHL defensemen and that's what he is. I don't see any positive in waiting.

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I don't really know what math makes that true...

 

Could say the same about Panarin. Is he an 87-point player or a 76-point player? It's not like Duchene has never been a 70+ player before.

 

Just look at the stats. If you really want to break it down calculate the standard deviation for each.

 

Duchene: 13.01

Panarin: 4.95

 

There is a much greater range in production from year to year with Duchene. You can tell this discrepancy just by looking at year over year production.

 

This doesn't take into account potential progression upwards either. Panarin is still on an upwards trajectory. Duchene is up and down. Hard to tell.

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I don't agree. You don't know what the landscape will be in a year, you don't know what kind of year Trouba will have, what if he has a monster year and prices himself out?. If he's available now, get him now. The team needs NHL defensemen and that's what he is. I don't see any positive in waiting.

 

I can see enough: Trouba will likely be the #1 free agent in the pool, and if we lose out on Panarin (as is the case in your scenario), we have a crapton of cap.

 

Further, why trade now for a player that's:

  • On a team with serious imminent cap issues
  • About to go into arbitration for the second time in two years with the same team
  • Literally doubled his production this season versus last (though he missed 27 games last year)

 

They've literally been trying to get him on a long-term deal for two seasons. He's probably looking at an 8-ish million award on a team that probably can't afford to accept that award.

 

Waiting is prudent. Winnipeg will almost assuredly have the screws put to them with Connor and Laine due new deals and several others needed to actually ice a team.

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