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Rangers Acquire D Adam Fox from CAR for 2019 2nd Rounder, 2020 Conditional 3rd


Phil

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Of course you are. It was three years ago. He is now and was then a very good offensive player. He was then at least very spotty in his own end and suspect in his decision making regarding risk worth reward. Again it was three years ago. Just trying to provide some thought to temper expectations at the very least. He’s a very good prospect, there is no denying that which I am not. He plays defense and his defensive play needs work. Maybe more work than people think.
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According to TSN's research, two 2nds has roughly a 20% chance of producing an NHL player.

 

https://www.tsn.ca/playing-the-percentages-in-the-nhl-draft-1.206144

 

http://images.tsn.ca/images/stories/2015/2/12/yost-draft3_53999.jpg

 

That's the wrong chart. The odds for one out of the two making it is actually 70% (2+2)

 

http://images.tsn.ca/images/stories/2015/2/12/yost-draft2_53987.jpg

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This can't be right. Over 30% chance of getting atleast 1 NHL player out of two 7th rounders? Thats wrong.

 

No that's correct, the odds of a 7th rounder becoming an NHL player is almost like 18% - those are the stats. The odds of 1 of 2 hitting is additive, so around 35% is right. The chance of BOTH making it is a multiplier, so then it would be more like 4%

 

The hit rate really flattens out from round 4 to round 7:

 

http://images.tsn.ca/images/stories/2015/2/12/yost-draft1_53958.jpg

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50+ games played

 

what really hurts is picking that bust in the first round outside of that 80% hit rate

 

By those standards, Dylan McIlrath is as much of a draft success as Alexander Ovechkin. Both count as 1 in that statistic. Important to remember.

 

Anyway, nice graph and interesting numbers. How are 1st rounders counted? Average of all 1st round picks or only picks 15-31? The latter would be the most relevant, since lottery picks are so rarely traded.

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By those standards, Dylan McIlrath is as much of a draft success as Alexander Ovechkin. Both count as 1 in that statistic. Important to remember.

 

Anyway, nice graph and interesting numbers. How are 1st rounders counted? Average of all 1st round picks or only picks 15-31? The latter would be the most relevant, since lottery picks are so rarely traded.

 

You would have to perform a much more detailed analysis, but it's not that hard to do. The TSN guy looked at 10 years of draft picks from 2000-2009. You can put all those players in a simple database along with their lifetime stats and run a bunch of quick queries, like narrowing it down to top 15 picks vs back 16 in round 1, or having a chart with different criteria for an "NHL PLayer" like X points scored for forwards or

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  • 4 weeks later...

Just reading Scott Wheeler's redraft of 2016. He's now got Fox going at #9 to the Canadiens.

 

9. Montreal Canadiens: Adam Fox

Actual draft pick: No. 66 (change: +57) to Calgary

My final ranking: No. 29 (change: +20)

 

Remember when I said that this ranking was going to be based on my evaluations? Well here we are at the point where a kid who has yet to play an NHL game gets ranked ahead of several who are a season or two deep into their NHL careers. I’m confident Fox is going to be that good. He’s one of those players who is going to spend so much time with the puck on his stick on offence that concerns over the ability of a smaller defender to be a No. 1 are quickly going to be muted. Fox is a stud who just had the most productive season by an NCAA defenceman (1.45 points per game!) since I began doing this whole scouting things six years ago (breaking the record of 1.08 points per game that he tied two seasons before). This is a kid, who, as a defenceman, posted 17 more points than his nearest teammate while playing to a plus-23 rating on a Harvard team that spent more time outside of USA Today’s national NCAA ranking than it did inside it. He’s going to immediately become an impact player for the Rangers and will probably go down as the second-biggest steal of the 2016 draft (if that’s possible for a kid who never played for the team that drafted him) to Alex DeBrincat. Like DeBrincat, I was considerably higher on Fox than the NHL consensus, so that’s good, but I was still too low on him. The kid led the NCAA in points per game (not just defencemen, everyone)!

 

2018-2019 season (Junior, NCAA): 48 points (9G, 39A), 33 games. Hobey Baker Award Finalist.

 

https://theathletic.com/975897/2019/06/05/wheeler-a-2016-nhl-draft-re-draft-and-retrospective-look-back-at-my-ranking/

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