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Thread: Why Do Weird Things Happen in the NHL Playoffs? Simple: Luck

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    Why Do Weird Things Happen in the NHL Playoffs? Simple: Luck

    Luck determines the winner in NHL games far more than other sports. Upsets are more likely. Most interesting stat: you'd have to play a 51 game Stanley Cup series for the favorite to win as often as it does in a 7 game NBA series.

    https://www.insidehook.com/article/s...ng-stanley-cup

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    Kinda flies in the face of the "analytics" community when they numbers say it's really a coin flip.

    Let me explain more. It's not a knock on analytics, it's simply to say for a group of people heavily invested in numbers, what's to be made when the numbers say there's not enough games for regression to the mean?

    Maybe just sit back, relax, and enjoy the games without the soreadsheet.
    Last edited by Pete; 04-23-2019 at 07:07 AM.

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    In the playoffs, there are a lot of OT, tie games, one goal games. Puck hits the post and goes in or stays out. Pucks lies flat, goes on side, or hops over stick.

    A heavy favorite might (on average) win a series 7 or 8 or 9 times out of ten... a slight favorite six times out of ten. Favorites on paper aren't always the best team on the ice (see Tampa, Calgary, Nashville).

    In a seven game series, think of flipping a biased coin 7 times... only the amount of bias is determined by home ice, travel, and a whole bunch of intangibles that can't be measured.

    Or just enjoy the games.
    "We're all f*cked. It helps to remember that." - George Carlin

    "How many Cups you've got?" - Esa Tikkanen

    "Hatred can keep you warm when you run out of liquor" - Ray Ratto, Dan Patrick show 1/20/2017

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    Too much information...

    Hockey for Dummies: Shoot, score (more than the other team) - win!

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    I've been saying this my whole life.

    These teams are all largely equal. Adding a Kevin Hayes at the deadline is far less important than just getting a couple bounces.

    These goals are ugly. It's all a matter or hitting a stick shaft or a shin pad at a fortuitous angle.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pete View Post
    Kinda flies in the face of the "analytics" community when they numbers say it's really a coin flip.

    Let me explain more. It's not a knock on analytics, it's simply to say for a group of people heavily invested in numbers, what's to be made when the numbers say there's not enough games for regression to the mean?

    Maybe just sit back, relax, and enjoy the games without the soreadsheet.
    Exactly.

    They're desperate to employ this stuff that they've largely pilfered from baseball. A static game where even luck (babip) is easily measured.

    Hockey is chaos.

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    Except it isn't chaos. Because some luck you make, and at the end of the day, the whole purpose of embracing analytics is to own the puck for the longest possible stretches of time given the direct link between that and scoring.

    The inability to chalk up a small sample size to long-term projection doesn't equate to "throw out the spreadsheet." That data is still relevant for the long-term. If you're evaluating a rookie, for example, who puts in say 50 regular season games and 8 playoff contests in year one, then 71 games and 2 playoff games in year two, etc. etc. you can develop a better and better long-term projection of what you think he might actually be going into years three, four, five, and on. Why on earth would you say "well, the playoffs are just chaos, so let's just not even account for them." By that stretch, why was anything made of Miller having one goal in 40-odd games as a Ranger? "It's just chaos," should have been the only adequate response. Not his fault. Chaos. Throw out the boxcars right along with the spreadsheet.
    "Everyone says you should be a good loser. If you’re a good loser, you’re a loser."
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dunny View Post
    I've been saying this my whole life.

    These teams are all largely equal. Adding a Kevin Hayes at the deadline is far less important than just getting a couple bounces.

    These goals are ugly. It's all a matter or hitting a stick shaft or a shin pad at a fortuitous angle.
    Except they're not. That's why the Rangers, skating with a shortened bench, and dressing Stu Bickel in the playoffs, couldn't beat the Devils. If they were equal, teams would win every year at complete random. The idea of back-to-back championships, consistent leading scorers, starting goaltenders, etc. would all go out the window.
    "Everyone says you should be a good loser. If you’re a good loser, you’re a loser."
    - John Tortorella


    "Never be a spectator of unfairness or stupidity. Seek out argument and disputation for their own sake; the grave will supply plenty of time for silence."
    - Christopher Hitchens

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    Quote Originally Posted by Phil in Absentia View Post
    Except it isn't chaos. Because some luck you make, and at the end of the day, the whole purpose of embracing analytics is to own the puck for the longest possible stretches of time given the direct link between that and scoring.

    The inability to chalk up a small sample size to long-term projection doesn't equate to "throw out the spreadsheet." That data is still relevant for the long-term. If you're evaluating a rookie, for example, who puts in say 50 regular season games and 8 playoff contests in year one, then 71 games and 2 playoff games in year two, etc. etc. you can develop a better and better long-term projection of what you think he might actually be going into years three, four, five, and on. Why on earth would you say "well, the playoffs are just chaos, so let's just not even account for them." By that stretch, why was anything made of Miller having one goal in 40-odd games as a Ranger? "It's just chaos," should have been the only adequate response. Not his fault. Chaos. Throw out the boxcars right along with the spreadsheet.
    Well, no... Then you go and look at his linemates and ice time ... And maybe of there's time left over... Watch him play.

  10. #10
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    Nah. Chaos explains both of those, too. It's a beautiful catch-all. It even prevents us from needing or wanting to care about illusions like "progress" because it's just random.


    Sent from my iPhone using Blueshirts Brotherhood mobile app powered by Tapatalk
    "Everyone says you should be a good loser. If you’re a good loser, you’re a loser."
    - John Tortorella


    "Never be a spectator of unfairness or stupidity. Seek out argument and disputation for their own sake; the grave will supply plenty of time for silence."
    - Christopher Hitchens

  11. #11
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    I have no idea what you're saying. But, ok.

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