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Pulling the Goalie Early


Sod16

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Traditionally it was done when down by one with a minute left. Some, coaches, like Jacques Lemaire, waited until about 45 seconds left. In Russia, they typically did not do it at all (see Miracle on Ice). Gradually, teams started pulling with about a minute and a half left and the practice of pulling when down by two, went from somewhat uncommon to universal. Defending teams resisted taking pot shots at the empty net from beyond the red line.

 

One coach, who didn't last long in the NHL, changed all that. Patrick Roy started pulling with 3 minutes left, and everyone followed, or at least started doing it with 2:30 left. I've heard that analytics support this, but I'm not sure how you can measure it. For example you can't compare the success rate in tying the game of teams that pulled with 2:45 left versus those who pulled with 1:45 left, because the former probably had the puck in an advantageous position to begin with while the latter did not with over 2:00 left.

 

There may be more 6 on 5 goals, as it is inevitable that the earlier you pull the more 6-5 goals you will get. But that doesn't necessarily make it a good strategy. There has been an explosion of empty netters, many of which result in teams leaving a lot of time on the table that could have been used to try to tie the game. I'm thinking of this after watching the Leafs pull today with 2:30 left and surrendering a fatal empty netter with 1:54 to go. With the Leafs firepower, I'd sure like that time to try to tie the game.

 

Anyway, I'm just saying I don't knowt what kind of analytics can judge the Roy strategy, and anecdotally, I'm not sure it works. I think maybe about 1:45 left is right, provided you have control in the offensive zone. I also have seen quite a few 6 on 5 goals after face offs resulting from icing pot shots at empty nets.

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I think what you mentioned regarding the Leafs firepower should heavily influence the decision. They do not have problems scoring goals with that many talented forwards who can strike quickly. I don't know why you would pull so early with that kind of roster. Give them as much of a shot at even strength to get it done. 60-90 seconds with that kind of talent, but 2-3 minutes for a team that has trouble scoring goals seems perfectly reasonable.
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The Leafs panicked yesterday with that goalie pull. Sooo much time left, and never had control of the puck. As a coach, I don’t mind pulling the goalie early, but you have to have established possession before calling him to the bench with anything over 1:00 left. It takes 3 seconds to get the puck up ice, be patient. If there’s :30 - :40 left, I’m all for calling him off after a dump in, the guys on the ice must get the forecheck going and have a sense of urgency with less time.
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Agree Mike.

 

Pulling with too much time seems almost desperate. Down by 2? Sure, go for it.

 

There?s psychology involved too. Pulling your goalie with 2-3 min left doesn?t take advantage of what I think happens to the defending team with :30-40 left to play. I think a defensive mentality overtakes the situation and the team in the lead hunkers down to protect the fort. That leads to more of an offensive onslaught that they must now guard against.

 

Pulling early allows the winning team to play keep away or dump and chase...all of it outside of their D-zone.

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I don't like the move at all. AT ALL. I don't know why everyone does it.

 

I forget who did it the other night but a team was dominating play, down by a goal, and they pull their goalie with 3 minutes left only to have the opposing team dump a hail mary down the ice to seal the game seconds later. Give your team a chance to tie it up! Believe in your group! Especially when you already have the other team against the ropes.

 

I simply do not understand pulling the goalie with more than 1 minute left. It's a last ditch effort and lazy coaching.

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I have problems with a lot of the methodology in the paper cited above. For one thing, it uses goals per minute 5 on 5 stats for the whole game to estimate the probability of scoring 5 on 5 in the final minutes, which is totally inappropriate, because teams are trapping and playing defensively earlier in the game and they are taking all sorts of chances and playing offensively 5 on 5 in the waning minutes.

 

Teams are becoming much more aggressive in going after empty net goals. More often than not, trailing teams don't last more than a minute before surrendering empty netters. So if you are only going to get about of minute's worth of 6 on 5 in, why do it with three minutes left, get scored on with two minutes left, and lose two minutes worth of time to tie the game?

 

Leafs pulled down by two with 3:00 left and lasted 30 seconds before getting scored on. I don't begrudge that strategy down by two, but the result was pretty typical. In Game 6 they pulled down by one with 2:30 left and lasted 30 seconds as well.

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What's missing (again) with all the numbers is a feel for the situation.

 

if you are all over a team, and you just can't put one in, you might pull your goalie a little bit earlier just to get the extra guy. if you're getting spanked up and down the ice with really no chance to score and you're pulling the goalie out of desperation, well there's no point in doing that with three minutes left.

 

Or, vice versa, you might feel that it's just a matter of time before you score and not feel the need to pull your goalie. Some of this stuff just can't be measured, you have to go with your gut.

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What's missing (again) with all the numbers is a feel for the situation.

 

if you are all over a team, and you just can't put one in, you might pull your goalie a little bit earlier just to get the extra guy. if you're getting spanked up and down the ice with really no chance to score and you're pulling the goalie out of desperation, well there's no point in doing that with three minutes left.

 

Or, vice versa, you might feel that it's just a matter of time before you score and not feel the need to pull your goalie. Some of this stuff just can't be measured, you have to go with your gut.

 

Agreed. But who cares about eyeballs and gut feelings ?

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Another thing to consider is that when you are 6-5, you have to spend too much time/effort desperately avoiding any shot from anywhere by the opposition, which detracts from your offensive task at hand. I agree that it depends on how well you are pinning the other team in. If you are not, you are going to get scored on too quickly to pull early.

 

The article suggest pulling early in third if you are down by three. Good thing the Sharks didn't read it.

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The only way you’d be concerned about the other team shooting it from anywhere is if you don’t have the puck. How could you be distracted from playing offense if you don’t have the puck to begin with? Your defensive effort increases by a zillion. Also, unless the defending team is gassed, they’re less likely to just fire it without gaining the red line.
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