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McKenzie: "Rangers want to get better in a hurry,"


Phil

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Risto has 0 instincts on defense and in the NZ and plays a step slower than he could, physically. We know this, regardless of the players around him.

 

This was before last season, but...

DfDJPG1UEAEtGVY.png:large

The zone entry defense is really, really bad, and not a product of teammates.

 

I'm not really sure how you get to zone entry defense isn't a result of teammates...It's absolutely a result of your partner and the backchecking forwards, or forwards prone to NZ T/O.

 

Compare him to guys on his own team, at least.

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From my point of view, the push for Panarin is because the Rangers lack a forward of "franchise player quality" that is highly skilled. No disrespect to Zibanejad, who has been growing into a franchise player lite. Assuming Kakko meets expectations, then he helps fill that need. At the very least, it improves the outlook by a lot and reduces the need to spend money on one.

 

There's nothing wrong with pursuing him still, but it makes me wonder more about using the money for defense (EK?) rather than continuing to add forwards.

I'm in the minority here...

 

But I think our forward group is a bigger problem than the defense, by a wide margin. People forget that the Rangers were dead last in shot attempts for, and last in unblocked shot attempts for by a mile. This forward group is so inept at holding onto pucks that they have to defend constantly. No team can thrive, defensively, like that. Adding two possession players - Panarin and Kakko (not to mention Kravtsov) - will do more for the defense than Karlsson ever could.

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I'm not really sure how you get to zone entry defense isn't a result of teammates...It's absolutely a result of your partner and the backchecking forwards, or forwards prone to NZ T/O.

 

Compare him to guys on his own team, at least.

B/c it's not whether or not the team entered the zone, it's whether or not your man did it.

 

I actually thought the tool didn't exist anymore...from January:

 

Mccabe: https://public.tableau.com/shared/WDQP7CXCH?:display_count=yes

Dahlin: https://public.tableau.com/shared/XY8NWS52J?:display_count=yes

Scandella: https://public.tableau.com/shared/PF59B3834?:display_count=yes

Bogosian: https://public.tableau.com/shared/YQYTTYKKF?:display_count=yes

 

Bogosian is the only player he's better than, and Bogosian is fucking terrible.

 

He actually matches up to Trouba though, in that metric, but I don't think Trouba is a #1 D either.

 

https://public.tableau.com/shared/9P9W8HPRZ?:display_count=yes

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I'm in the minority here...

 

But I think our forward group is a bigger problem than the defense, by a wide margin. People forget that the Rangers were dead last in shot attempts for, and last in unblocked shot attempts for by a mile. This forward group is so inept at holding onto pucks that they have to defend constantly. No team can thrive, defensively, like that. Adding two possession players - Panarin and Kakko (not to mention Kravtsov) - will do more for the defense than Karlsson ever could.

 

If you have Kravtsov, Kakko, and Panarin in the lineup, that, essentially, moves everyone down a spot. That's a decent offensive squad.

We dont have that potential on defense. We have a lot of potential bottom pair guys, but nothing that seems to be projected to be a top line defender (other than people that only look at Miller's points, and not his play)

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Is it?

 

Panarin and Karlsson are both getting in the vicinity of 11M per year probably. If the cap goes up to 83M, they would have 21M in space. They need to sign Buchnevich, Lemieux, Pionk, and Deangelo to new contracts. If Panarin signs at 11M, they have 10M left to do so. That's tight, but assume that's possible. Creating another 11M for Karlsson is not an easy task. Possibilities:

 

- Trade Strome, Namestnikov, Vesey for whatever low round picks you can get. Replace on the roster with players on ELC (Kakko/Hughes, Kravtsov, ?). Saves you 6.7M. An additional 4.5M of space is still needed.

- Find a taker for Shattenkirk. This has to happen. No way around it. That might cost Winnipeg's 1st round pick to shed his salary, if any team is even interested. That would save you another 6.65M if taking no money back.

 

This creates 13.35M in cap space to go get Karlsson and have some wiggle room. It would all be worth it, but it's so many moving pieces that I doubt it happens.

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You're really just better to wait it out. You'll be able to shed those D contracts at next year's draft, or this deadline if you're eating a portion. That won't be hard, assuming they don't implode, anyways.

 

Finding a taker for Hank will also be possible at that point, or else he's so bad this season he retires or you loan him out to Sweden or something.

 

The key is going to be managing service time. Could we wait a year for Kakko? Probably not, but it would be smart.

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Panarin and Karlsson are both getting in the vicinity of 11M per year probably. If the cap goes up to 83M, they would have 21M in space. They need to sign Buchnevich, Lemieux, Pionk, and Deangelo to new contracts. If Panarin signs at 11M, they have 10M left to do so. That's tight, but assume that's possible. Creating another 11M for Karlsson is not an easy task. Possibilities:

 

- Trade Strome, Namestnikov, Vesey for whatever low round picks you can get. Replace on the roster with players on ELC (Kakko/Hughes, Kravtsov, ?). Saves you 6.7M. An additional 4.5M of space is still needed.

- Find a taker for Shattenkirk. This has to happen. No way around it. That might cost Winnipeg's 1st round pick to shed his salary, if any team is even interested. That would save you another 6.65M if taking no money back.

 

This creates 13.35M in cap space to go get Karlsson and have some wiggle room. It would all be worth it, but it's so many moving pieces that I doubt it happens.

 

Please, God, no no no to Erik Karlsson.

That will be a catastrophic mistake that they will regret in very short order.

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Please, God, no no no to Erik Karlsson.

That will be a catastrophic mistake that they will regret in very short order.

 

Lol I understand the reaction. I can't say I am sold on the idea of adding him, but I am warming up to it. Unless he gets further hurt, which is entirely possible, it would be years before we might start looking at it as an overpayment. Lineup looks pretty good with him and Panarin both in it though, and provides a significant amount of talent and leadership to the roster. It also provides several years of defensive competence at the top while our young defensive prospects come of age.

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B/c it's not whether or not the team entered the zone, it's whether or not your man did it.

 

I actually thought the tool didn't exist anymore...from January:

 

Mccabe: https://public.tableau.com/shared/WDQP7CXCH?:display_count=yes

Dahlin: https://public.tableau.com/shared/XY8NWS52J?:display_count=yes

Scandella: https://public.tableau.com/shared/PF59B3834?:display_count=yes

Bogosian: https://public.tableau.com/shared/YQYTTYKKF?:display_count=yes

 

Bogosian is the only player he's better than, and Bogosian is fucking terrible.

 

He actually matches up to Trouba though, in that metric, but I don't think Trouba is a #1 D either.

 

https://public.tableau.com/shared/9P9W8HPRZ?:display_count=yes

So you're saying... If you're a D... Wether your man enters the zone has nothing to do with lack of back pressure by your back checking forward, or a bad gap/lane by your partner allowing an advantage to your man... It's totally a 1 on 1 metric?

 

Not a chance.

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Lol I understand the reaction. I can't say I am sold on the idea of adding him, but I am warming up to it. Unless he gets further hurt, which is entirely possible, it would be years before we might start looking at it as an overpayment. Lineup looks pretty good with him and Panarin both in it though, and provides a significant amount of talent and leadership to the roster. It also provides several years of defensive competence at the top while our young defensive prospects come of age.

 

I certainly see the appeal of him. His skill is undeniable. He’s a game changer. No argument.

 

But 29 in 6 weeks. Have to give him 7 years to get him. Have to go north of 11 million per. Probably a full NMC. Has had some injuries including a very significant one to his ankle. Got to pay him huge money until age 36. I can’t see him being what he is as a player passed age 31-32.

His skill set WILL erode in the next 3-4 seasons. That’s assuming he’s 100% healthy. When it goes for him, he will hit the wall hard. And they’ll be stuck with a shell of a player on a massive contract that will be impossible to move. Right around the time they’ll need to start paying younger guys and hopefully needing to add payroll to beef up for Cup runs.

 

It’s just too risky. They’ve been down that road too many times before. And the results have never been good. They seem to finally have realized that.

 

I’m not all about Panarin either. And he’s 1 1/2 years younger with about half as many games played in NHL. He’s less a risk to me. And might actually be slightly cheaper.

 

They can pass on both and I’d be ok with it. But if they have to choose between the two, I say Panarin.

 

I sound a broken record I’m sure, but I don’t think they’re a contender next year even if they got both those guys. Too many holes. Too many young guys would have to make huge leaps forward immensely fast.

Rushing a rebuild is a sure fire way to fuck up a rebuild.

Let the young guys who are up continue to grow. They’ll have some key rookies next year who will definitely hit speed bumps. There are key future pieces still not at the NHL level who will likely still not be there next year.

After next season, they’re down to 1 season remaining on Hank, Staal, Smith, and Shatty. They may be able to move 1 at next years deadline. They can look at a buyout on one more. And at worst they carry expiring contracts on whom ever is left into 20-21, which is perfectly fine.

 

But I think in 20-21, if they stay the course, they can be vastly improved, be staring more payroll flexibility in the face at close range, and really start taking steps toward making a serious run at a Cup.

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Karlsson isnt Redden, Smith, Richards, etc. he’s a whole different level. If you have a chance to sign a guy like him, you do it.

 

This. If guys need new deals three years from now, make trades to make room. Zibnaejad. Skjei. Whoever.

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This. If guys need new deals three years from now, make trades to make room. Zibnaejad. Skjei. Whoever.

 

He's been a great player, but I haven't followed him that closely. Is he ok? I know he's been hurt. Isn't there a bone in his foot now missing or something? Is there long term risk? What injury does he have right now that has kept him out?

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I mean, I don't know how to answer that. He's had injuries. He's still a phenom. Even on one and a half feet. He looked absolutely incredible in game one.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Blueshirts Brotherhood mobile app powered by Tapatalk

 

Well hopefully our team dr can answer as to whether it will start diminishing his game in a few years before we commit 7 years to him.

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I mean, I don't know how to answer that. He's had injuries. He's still a phenom. Even on one and a half feet. He looked absolutely incredible in game one.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Blueshirts Brotherhood mobile app powered by Tapatalk

 

His underlying stats for this season are absolutely outstanding. One and a half feet or not. He's been utterly dominant.

I understand the fear of another Rangers style albatross contract for a fading star. But I don't think that applies here.

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You're going to be paying the piper at some point with that guy, plus I bet they do something crazy dumb like go year to year with Hank until age 40 if they bring Karlsson in.

 

It just smells like a 90's Ranger move.

 

Well we will have to see if Henrik is still capable of being an NHL goalie in 2 more years, but if he is there should be no problem keeping him around as a veteran backup. How he treated Georgiev this season makes me think he would be fine on a low dollar backup role, especially if the team is on the upswing and a contender.

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Karlsson isnt Redden, Smith, Richards, etc. he’s a whole different level. If you have a chance to sign a guy like him, you do it.

 

This is why I'm warming up to the idea. He's an elite talent. Those other guys weren't close to elite.

 

There are plenty of examples of defensemen playing at a very high level into their mid 30s. One of them is Karlsson's teammate by the way (Burns, who just turned 34 and had the best year of his career). Dan Boyle was very good well into his 30s. Of course, the Rangers got him too late at 38 lol. Brian Leetch was very good well into his 30s. Karlsson is in the company with these guys, not bums like Wade Redden.

 

If he's healthy, I wouldn't be concerned. He has been increasingly injury prone though, and that's the part that concerns me.

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