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O Canada: Quest for Stanley Cup


fletch

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Little things adding up. Soft first goal from Anderson. Defensive mistakes/turnovers in defensive zone on first two goals. Different year, same Leafs. Canada can turn its attention to curling until preseason CFL football, because hockey is done.
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  • 3 years later...

2023 version

Toronto Maple Leafs 111 points, no.2 seed in Atlantic, first round opponent Lightning.

Edmonton Oilers, 109 points, no.2 seed in Pacific, first round opponent Kings.

Winnipeg Jets, 95 points, wild card 2, first round opponent Knights.

 

From odds to win Cup

https://www.vegasinsider.com/nhl/odds/futures/

Oilers are currently third choice behind Bruins and Avalanche

Leafs are currently fourth choice

Jets probably underachieved this regular season and can be viewed like a no. 3 seed (Lightning as 3 seed have 98 points).

 

Will this be the year that a team from Canada breaks the drought and wins the Cup?  Probably not. 

 

The Jets will deservedly be an underdog against the Knights, but would it be a shock if they won a round?  It would set up a matchup with Oilers/Kings winner.

 

The Leafs (likely) would have the Bruins waiting for them if they win a playoff round (against Lightning) for the first time in almost 20 years.   Not impossible but would be clear underdogs against Boston.

 

On paper, the Oilers have the most likely path to a deep run.  Favored over Kings. Knights or Jets would be a winnable series.  WCF would get the survival of rugged Central playoff battles (Avalanche, Stars, Wild, Kraken-WC).

 

Calendar date first eliminated (predicted).

1. Jets

2. Leafs

3. Oilers 

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4 minutes ago, Sharpshooter said:

Edmonton is the only Canadian team I like and want to see end the country's drought of winning the Cup. lol

Word. McDavid and Draisaitl deserve a Cup, the Leaf's Matthews and Marner are little bitch asses, and so are Winnipeg's Wheeler and Schiefele. 

Edited by Pete
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I'm torn.  Delight in the angst in Toronto of another playoff season?   Relish Edmonton's desperation for McDavid to win a championship?  Imagine fanbases squirming when watching markets like Tampa, Raleigh, Anaheim, Dallas celebrate the Cup?

 

If I don't have a rooting interest in a series, I usually root for the squad from Canada just because of how amped the fan base is and the playing of both national anthems.  Watching Calgary host a playoff game (when they make it) with just a sea of red jersey in the stands is a great atmosphere for hockey, and Edmonton-Calgary was great theater last year.

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15 hours ago, Sod16 said:

 

I long those shots of the throngs outside their arena watching on the big screen and reacting to bad news!

The agony is palpable.  Credit to true fans who believe, against all odds, that this is the year.

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  • 2 weeks later...

To the elimination game stage

Leafs have a 3-1 series lead over Lightning heading back to Toronto (April 27)

Oilers have a 3-2 series lead over Kings heading back to Los Angeles (April 29)

Knights have a 3-1 series lead over Jets heading back to Vegas (April 27)

 

Jets are the first team from Canada that have been pushed to the brink of elimination. Other than Calgary Flames and the other non-playoff teams.

 

Edited by fletch
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4/27 Jets bounced by the Knights in 5 games.  After a game 1 win for the Jets, game 3 was probably the key game in the series.  In game 3, Jets scored 3 third period goals to force OT, only to lose in double OT.  Vegas was convincing in closing the series out in Game 5.

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Oilers have got an even matchup with the Knights.  I could see that series go either way.

 

Leafs draw the Panthers instead of the expected Bruins.  Florida is playing really well right now but I give a slight edge to Toronto. 

 

Second round means that every team has already proved their caliber by winning a series.  New matchup means different adjustments and relative advantages so I don’t find what happened in previous series carries over much other than confidence, injuries, and fatigue 

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Leafs avoid elimination in game 4, Oilers tie up their series 2-2.  May end up being one of the more notable nights of playoff results for teams from Canada. 

 

I won't think the Leafs have much of a chance to win the series unless they win Game 5 - if they win Game 5 they'll still probably lose the series, but they will have gained enough momentum that the path to a series win is clearer.  Historical win percentage jumps from 5.3% (win game 4, series 1-3) to 21.5% (win game 5, series 2-3).

 

Winner of game 5 Oilers-Knights probably wins the series, historically the team that wins game 5 (win game 5, series 3-2) wins the series 78.9% of the time.

https://www.hockey-reference.com/playoffs/playoff-history.cgi

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5/12 Leafs found a painful end to their season, with an OT loss in game 5.  Close games all series but Panthers just steadily kept winning.  If there was a potential turning point, it was probably game 3 when Leafs lost in overtime to go down 3-0 instead of down 2-1.

 

On the same night the Oilers were pushed to the brink, with a one goal loss to the Kings to go down 3-2.  Two straight wins from the Oilers, or teams from Canada will be done for another year.

 

 

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5/14 Knights finish off the Oilers in 6 games.  This was a close series throughout.  There wasn't a true turning point, but to force the theme, by winning game 5 and taking a 3-2 series lead, the Knights put the Oilers in a tough spot to win the series.

 

That's it, another year in the books, with no teams from Canada left in the playoffs.

First to last eliminated:

1. Jets

2. Leafs

3. Oilers

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Bigger issue going forward for the NHL is 3 of the 4 teams if the Stars take care of biz are going to be in zero income tax states. And North Carolina is a relatively low tax state. Being in a "big market" might not be much of an advantage and may be even a detriment in attracting players.

 

The cap is getting more pointless every day. It's being kept because some whiny cheap owners like owning a pro sports team but don't really care if they compete as long as the receipts are good. There will always be haves and havenots. 

 

As an aside, Columbus is really a disaster. Ohio is a high tax state and every city in Ohio has a resident income tax on top of that. No sensible person unless they have an inexplicable love for Ohio State football would choose to live there. 

 

While Buffalo is not a "big market" it's in NY state. Jack Eichel with a roughly $8 million annual salary is not heartbroken that his move to Vegas gives him an extra $800K in take home pay, along with not shoveling snow.

 

Expect Bettman to do NOTHING. 

Edited by Bugg
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24 minutes ago, Bugg said:

Bigger issue going forward for the NHL is 3 of the 4 teams if the Stars take care of biz are going to be in zero income tax states. And North Carolina is a relatively low tax state. Being in a "big market" might not be much of an advantage and may be even a detriment in attracting players.

 

The cap is getting more pointless every day. It's being kept because some whiny cheap owners like owning a pro sports team but don't really care if they compete as long as the receipts are good. There will always be haves and havenots. 

 

As an aside, Columbus is really a disaster. Ohio is a high tax state and every city in Ohio has a resident income tax on top of that. No sensible person unless they have an inexplicable love for Ohio State football would choose to live there. 

 

While Buffalo is not a "big market" it's in NY state. Jack Eichel with a roughly $8 million annual salary is not heartbroken that his move to Vegas gives him an extra $800K in take home pay, along with not shoveling snow.

 

Expect Bettman to do NOTHING. 

Eichel wins. Crazy thing about his situation is he would've probably happily stayed in Buffalo but the management was hell bent on getting their way. I fully believe they stood their ground on principle and nothing else.

 

Buffalo is doing alright too so I guess they both won in certain ways.

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30 minutes ago, Bugg said:

As an aside, Columbus is really a disaster. Ohio is a high tax state and every city in Ohio has a resident income tax on top of that. No sensible person unless they have an inexplicable love for Ohio State football would choose to live there. 

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49 minutes ago, Bugg said:

Bigger issue going forward for the NHL is 3 of the 4 teams if the Stars take care of biz are going to be in zero income tax states. And North Carolina is a relatively low tax state. Being in a "big market" might not be much of an advantage and may be even a detriment in attracting players.

 

The cap is getting more pointless every day. It's being kept because some whiny cheap owners like owning a pro sports team but don't really care if they compete as long as the receipts are good. There will always be haves and havenots. 

 

As an aside, Columbus is really a disaster. Ohio is a high tax state and every city in Ohio has a resident income tax on top of that. No sensible person unless they have an inexplicable love for Ohio State football would choose to live there. 

 

While Buffalo is not a "big market" it's in NY state. Jack Eichel with a roughly $8 million annual salary is not heartbroken that his move to Vegas gives him an extra $800K in take home pay, along with not shoveling snow.

 

Expect Bettman to do NOTHING. 

 

This article is dated, but it addresses some of the challenges of the franchises in Canada vs US related to strength of exchange rate

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/hockey/nhl-players-cheer-for-loonies-recovery-as-reduced-revenues-sink-salaries/article28253008/#:~:text=can hurt%2C too.-,A low Canadian dollar has serious implications for the NHL,least %2483-million (U.S.)

 

'A low Canadian dollar has serious implications for the NHL because it drives down league revenues, which in turn affects the salary cap.

It also makes life especially difficult for Canadian teams. The Maple Leafs player payroll, for example, is expected to hit at least $83-million (U.S.) this season, and that comes at a much bigger cost now than it did even in mid-October, when the Canadian dollar's value was still nearly 80 cents.

That payroll figure doesn't include staff costs, such as the first year of the massive eight-year, $50-million (U.S.) contract for head coach Mike Babcock.'

 

Financially there are advantages to playing for US teams.  And there is an advantage to play in zero income tax states.

 

I'd suggest, though, the best way to attract premier athletes is to be a clear contender for the Cup. There will always be athletes that will want to play for bottom-feeder franchises that can offer premium salaries (because less talent on team), but there is certainly a draw to play for clear playoff-caliber teams, especially teams that want to make a deep run.  Getting your name carved on the Stanley Cup is awesome.   And playing with McDavid or other stars is a nice draw.

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28 minutes ago, Sharpshooter said:

Fuck you, Edmonton. 😩

Edmonton has to fix it's goaltending and defensive zone coverage.  Painful to watch some of the evisceration that was taking place.  Tough to have to rack up the goals every night to win.  Vegas was smart to limit Oiler power play chances as the series went on as well.

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