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Official Draft Pick / Rooting Interest Tracker


Long live the King

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I think at this point it's safe to say that the worst 4 teams are locked up as: Ottawa, LA, Detroit, and Anaheim. I don't think anyone is going to "catch" them. I do think 5-9 can still be battled for but I just feel this Rangers team is too competitive still, even without Zuc and Hayes, to drop all that far. I'm thinking we end up drafting 9 or 10 unless we get extremely lucky with the ping-pong balls.

 

Only posted this two weeks ago and I was fairly wrong with predicting how sucky the Devils were. They've sucked their way into the bottom 4 with their beer-league lineup. Now they're only 3 points out of the bottom 2.

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5th would be huge, still cant see it happening tho. So typical rangers to end the season on a 5 game win streak and end up 8-9th last.

 

It would be typical. Remaining games:

 

Vs Det

@ Tor

VS Pit

@ Bos

VS Stl

@ Phi

@Njd

VS Ott

VS Cbj

@ Pit

 

I can definitely see them going something like 2-8 in that stretch, virtually guaranteeing 5th from last.

But yeah, I worry they'll go something like 5-5 and fucking it all up.

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It would be typical. Remaining games:

 

Vs Det

@ Tor

VS Pit

@ Bos

VS Stl

@ Phi

@Njd

VS Ott

VS Cbj

@ Pit

 

I can definitely see them going something like 2-8 in that stretch, virtually guaranteeing 5th from last.

But yeah, I worry they'll go something like 5-5 and fucking it all up.

 

It is definitely going way too smoothly at this point to think anything other than disaster is around the corner. (Said 50 years of watching the Rangers.)

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Only posted this two weeks ago and I was fairly wrong with predicting how sucky the Devils were. They've sucked their way into the bottom 4 with their beer-league lineup. Now they're only 3 points out of the bottom 2.

 

The Devils are a very good lesson for ourselves in a couple of years. A re-build is not a perfect sinus curve. You might be good one year, then bottom out the next, but still be on the right track with a re-build. If the Rangers make a heroic playoff push in 2019/20, it's not impossible that they collapse and go bottom-5 in 2020/21. That's the nature of a re-build and another reason why the notion of intentionally "shortening" or "prolonging" the rebuild is a little naive. This is sports - nothing goes as planned.

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Canucks beat Blackhawks in OT, perfect result.

 

Just need Ducks to pass us and then we're 5th last, no chance of falling any lower than that.

 

A loss tonight opens the door ever so slightly for the Red Wings to catch up. But yeah, 5th from last is probably the best they can get.

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If they can settle into 5th, I'll be thrilled.

 

Gives them a good chance at the top 2 but whoever's there at #5 will be a solid pick.

 

Yeah, unless they go on a streak in the last 10 games the Rangers will be drafting a really good player with their 1st.

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Too bad the west is so weak, dropping back almost 10 picks on that Winnipeg pick

 

I dunno, man. If I'm Winnipeg, I want that division title like a fat kid wants cake. STL in the first round feels like an upset just waiting to happen for whichever poor soul finishes 2nd in the Central.

 

If Winnipeg loses the division and then loses in round 1, that pick could be somewhere in the 20-ish range.

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If they can settle into 5th, I'll be thrilled.

 

Gives them a good chance at the top 2 but whoever's there at #5 will be a solid pick.

 

Absolutely - however, finishing 5th-last most likely means drafting #6 or 7. Actually, for the 5th-last, there is higher chance of drafting #1 than #5. That's also why every place matters. Not so much to improve the percentages, but to improve the "worst case scenario".

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Absolutely - however, finishing 5th-last most likely means drafting #6 or 7. Actually, for the 5th-last, there is higher chance of drafting #1 than #5. That's also why every place matters. Not so much to improve the percentages, but to improve the "worst case scenario".

 

Right! Didn't take too many spins at Tankathon to realize that at the 5th or 6th slot, NYR are much more likely to slide down 1-2 (possibly, but not likely 3) picks than to make the top 3. Slot number 4 would be the worst, where you would have only a 2.1% chance of actually drafting 4th. The odds levelize for drafting at your standings slot (as in NYR was in the 9th slot last year and picked 9th) at about number 8. The table in this article is great and was done for 2017, when there were still 14 teams that missed the playoffs, but VGK was in the mix. http://sinbin.vegas/understanding-the-nhl-draft-lottery/ Would love to see an updated version, but haven't been able to find it.

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