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Thread: It's OK to be Disappointed with Lias Andersson For Now

  1. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gravesy View Post
    I’m not sure that’s the same thing Peter.
    I just don’t feel the “NHL ready” aspect of it is necessarily a stick to beat them with. He could easily be in the team instead of Howden. I assume “NHL ready” means “capable of playing in the NHL right now”. Which he is.
    I guess my point is that when most people say "NHL ready", they don't mean ready to play in the NHL and not be very good, or be a 4th liner.

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    How many players are ready to come in and be very good in the NHL in their draft year?
    The answer is very few. So when people talk about NHL ready 18 year olds it sounds strange that the qualifier is anything other than capable of doing a job for an NHL team.
    Especially for a kid like Andersson who projects to be a 3rd line, 2 way C whose game isn't based on elite skill.
    But I could be wrong here.
    Last edited by Gravesy; 10-01-2018 at 05:43 PM.

  3. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gravesy View Post
    How many players are ready to come in and be very good in the NHL in their draft year?
    The answer is very few. So when people talk about NHL ready 18 year olds it sounds strange that the qualifier is anything other than capable of doing a job for an NHL team.
    Especially for a kid like Andersson who projects to be a 3rd line, 2 way C whose game isn't based on elite skill.
    But I could be wrong here.
    I'd have to ask how many #7's overall didn't make a rebuilding team in the 2nd year after the draft. That's probably a better question.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pete View Post
    I'd have to ask how many #7's overall didn't make a rebuilding team in the 2nd year after the draft. That's probably a better question.
    The real question is would Middlestatt be the 3C over Chytil? Otherwise Middlestatt would also be starting in Hartford.

    Sent from my [device_name] using http://Blueshirts Brotherhood mobile...ed by Tapatalk

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    Quote Originally Posted by Long live the King View Post
    The real question is would Middlestatt be the 3C over Chytil? Otherwise Middlestatt would also be starting in Hartford.

    Sent from my [device_name] using http://Blueshirts Brotherhood mobile...ed by Tapatalk
    Not if he showed them enough to allow the Rangers to trade Hayes over the summer.

  6. #46
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    https://www.tsn.ca/statistically-spe...value-1.786131

    91% chance of playing 100 games, 41.7% top 6/4D, 33% 4th line or worse

    cant find the other article with the breakdown. It was posted several times in the spring
    Lias Andersson for #AJT2019

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pete View Post
    I'd have to ask how many #7's overall didn't make a rebuilding team in the 2nd year after the draft. That's probably a better question.
    I was curious so I looked it up:

    Here are six 7th round picks starting with 2013 draft only because that's what I found.

    I consider full-time roster player as "making the team." Meaning they did not split time between the minors and the NHL.

    Darnell Nurse EDM -- full time one year after his draft year
    Mathew Duma MIN -- full time four years after his draft year
    Mark Scheifele WPG -- full time three years after his draft year
    Jeff Skinner CAR -- full time the same year as his draft year
    Nazem Kadri TOR -- full time five years after his draft year
    Colin Wilson NSH -- full time one year after his draft year.

    So these are just kind of a random sample but I think it proves that not making the team in the 2nd year doesn't really mean anything.
    GORTON 2020

  8. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by ThirtyONE View Post
    I was curious so I looked it up:

    Here are six 7th round picks starting with 2013 draft only because that's what I found.

    I consider full-time roster player as "making the team." Meaning they did not split time between the minors and the NHL.

    Darnell Nurse EDM -- full time one year after his draft year
    Mathew Duma MIN -- full time four years after his draft year
    Mark Scheifele WPG -- full time three years after his draft year
    Jeff Skinner CAR -- full time the same year as his draft year
    Nazem Kadri TOR -- full time five years after his draft year
    Colin Wilson NSH -- full time one year after his draft year.

    So these are just kind of a random sample but I think it proves that not making the team in the 2nd year doesn't really mean anything.
    Funny you mention Schiefle, who was projected to go late in the first, but went 7.

    Would be nice if Lias followed that path...But Schiefle can skate, has size, shot, etc...

    Also, not too many "rebuilding" teams on that list , re: Kadri...(also, work ethic issues)
    Last edited by Pete; 10-01-2018 at 08:25 PM.

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    I think Lias has the speed/footwork necessary to be a centerman in the NHL. I think his biggest issue, at the moment, is comfort. He's only played basically half a season in America as an 18 year old. I know he was drafted very high and we have high expectations because of that but I'm fairly certain that when he starts to get comfortable in Hartford, we'll see a player that ends up being close to what he was drafted to be. At least I hope we do...

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pete View Post
    Funny you mention Schiefle, who was projected to go late in the first, but went 7.

    Would be nice if Lias followed that path...But Schiefle can skate, has size, shot, etc...
    I mean, I'm not specifically mentioning him. This is just how it is. To conclude that Lias is a bust or Gorton should be fired, which I don't know if you've said but others have, is not really understanding how drafting or rebuilds work. What if he turns out to be Kadri? I'd say that's still a valuable piece. You can always look back and say "we should have drafted X player instead" but you'll always be disappointed with that point of view.

    Lias is 19, soon to be 20. I know the new thing is to bring 18 year olds straight into the NHL these days, but that doesn't mean it's always right. I have a feeling the next few years are going to be really difficult for some people.
    Last edited by ThirtyONE; 10-01-2018 at 08:53 PM.
    GORTON 2020

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    https://www.tsn.ca/statistically-spe...picks-1.317819

    No. 7
    Average Rating: 5.57
    Best: Jason Arnott, Shane Doan, Ryan Suter, Jakub Voracek
    Worst: Ryan Sittler, Alek Stojanov, Lars Jonsson
    Ranked 7 or better: 42.9%
    Ranked 5 or worse: 38.1%
    At least 100 NHL games (or extremely likely): 90.5%
    10 - Generational
    9 - Elite Player
    8 - First Line, Top Pair D
    7 - Top Six Forward, Top Four D
    6 - Top Nine Forward, Top Six D
    5 - NHL Regular, 350+ NHL games
    4 - Fringe NHLer, 200+ NHL games
    3 - Very Good Minor Leaguer, 50-200 NHL games
    2 - Minor Leaguer, under 50 NHL games
    1 - 10 or fewer NHL games
    Lias Andersson for #AJT2019

  12. #52
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    Quote Originally Posted by ThirtyONE View Post
    I mean, I'm not specifically mentioning him. This is just how it is. To conclude that Lias is a bust or Gorton should be fired, which I don't know if you've said but others have, is not really understanding how drafting or rebuilds work. What if he turns out to be Kadri? I'd say that's still a valuable piece. You can always look back and say "we should have drafted X player instead" but you'll always be disappointed with that point of view.

    Lias is 19, soon to be 20. I know the new thing is to bring 18 year old straight into the NHL these days, but that doesn't mean it's always right. I have a feeling the next few years are going to be really difficult for some people.
    One could argue that Kadri wouldn't be Kadri without Matthews taking those tough matchups. I don't think they envisioned Kadri as a 3C when they drafted him. But here is is (yes due to JT).

    When draft picks struggle, they're always measured by the peers who were left on the table, that's the nature of the beast.

  13. #53
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    Most certainly, Pete. We still hear Hall/Seguin every season.

    I'm not worried about comparisons. I'm concerned with fans expectations. Sure, we'd love to draft franchise players with every pick, and certainly when we get a top 10 pick which we rarely see. But, for the most part, those are unrealistic expectations.

    If we go back to rebuild discussions, one of my things was telling people to calm down with what they expect from draft picks. Just having draft picks doesnt equal success, its not that simple
    Lias Andersson for #AJT2019

  14. #54
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    Quote Originally Posted by josh View Post
    Most certainly, Pete. We still hear Hall/Seguin every season.

    I'm not worried about comparisons. I'm concerned with fans expectations. Sure, we'd love to draft franchise players with every pick, and certainly when we get a top 10 pick which we rarely see. But, for the most part, those are unrealistic expectations.

    If we go back to rebuild discussions, one of my things was telling people to calm down with what they expect from draft picks. Just having draft picks doesnt equal success, its not that simple
    Totally.

    This is a franchise that drafted Jessiman over just about everyone, Sanguenetti over Giroux, MDZ over John Carlson, McIlrath over Tarasenko, and now Lias over Missdlestadt (TBD on the outcome).

    Seems they are always trying to outsmart everyone and wind up outsmarting themselves more often than not.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pete View Post
    Totally.

    This is a franchise that drafted Jessiman over just about everyone, Sanguenetti over Giroux, MDZ over John Carlson, McIlrath over Tarasenko, and now Lias over Missdlestadt (TBD on the outcome).

    Seems they are always trying to outsmart everyone and wind up outsmarting themselves more often than not.
    Yet some struggle with understanding the skepticism these days.

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    That's true, what is also true is that everyone has also done all of what you just mention, I don't find that rate of misses very damning.

    If I alter my expectations, I'm fine with the pick. It takes all kinds to make a hockey team successful. Josh just posted some very telling data and this pick really seems in line with that at this point.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pete View Post
    Totally.

    This is a franchise that drafted Jessiman over just about everyone, Sanguenetti over Giroux, MDZ over John Carlson, McIlrath over Tarasenko, and now Lias over Missdlestadt (TBD on the outcome).

    Seems they are always trying to outsmart everyone and wind up outsmarting themselves more often than not.
    Yeah but this is like your gf giving you shit bc the shit her ex used to do.
    Lias Andersson for #AJT2019

  18. #58
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    Quote Originally Posted by josh View Post
    Yeah but this is like your gf giving you shit bc the shit her ex used to do.
    Clarke has been here quite some time. Right around before the lockout. So he owns most of this. I blame him, not Gorton.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pete View Post
    I'd have to ask how many #7's overall didn't make a rebuilding team in the 2nd year after the draft. That's probably a better question.
    The answer to that appears to be it's a mixed bag (thanks thirtyONE).
    There's also a bit of context needed here, as NYR have two pretty solid if unspectacular C's in Zibanejad and Hayes. They also have a C prospect from the same draft in Chytil who has been a steady riser over the last year. What if Andersson was drafted by the Habs, who have basically nothing at C apart from the recently drafted Kotkaniemi?
    It's also my opinion that the reason he isn't on the team is because Gorton et al feels his development is better served playing 1st line minutes and PP in Hartford rather than a bottom 6 role with the Rangers. It's not because he flat out isn't good enough for a role in the team. I think they could have put him on the roster and he'd be fine. But they chose not to. You might say that's an easy get out of jail card to play for management, and that's true too I suppose.
    Again, there are reasons to doubt whether picking Andersson was the right use of a 7th overall. But I'm not convinced the NHL ready argument is one of them.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Gravesy View Post
    The answer to that appears to be it's a mixed bag (thanks thirtyONE).
    There's also a bit of context needed here, as NYR have two pretty solid if unspectacular C's in Zibanejad and Hayes. They also have a C prospect from the same draft in Chytil who has been a steady riser over the last year. What if Andersson was drafted by the Habs, who have basically nothing at C apart from the recently drafted Kotkaniemi?
    It's also my opinion that the reason he isn't on the team is because Gorton et al feels his development is better served playing 1st line minutes and PP in Hartford rather than a bottom 6 role with the Rangers. It's not because he flat out isn't good enough for a role in the team. I think they could have put him on the roster and he'd be fine. But they chose not to. You might say that's an easy get out of jail card to play for management, and that's true too I suppose.
    Again, there are reasons to doubt whether picking Andersson was the right use of a 7th overall. But I'm not convinced the NHL ready argument is one of them.
    The nhl ready argument was the rangers stance not anybody here.

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