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Thread: The Weather Thread

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    After a summer with historical rain totals in the mid-Atlantic, this poses a serious flood threat if it landfalls in eastern NC and then spreads it’s rain north through Virginia, Maryland, West Virginia and Pennsylvania. Coastal flooding and erosion would be awful too all the way to southern New England.

    “We” those of us in the tristate area (and me in Pennsylvania) want a further south landfall.


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    Quote Originally Posted by Parsley View Post
    Worst summer since I’ve moved down to PA in 2005.
    Get use to it, only going to get worse - the planet is broken

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    Quote Originally Posted by Parsley View Post
    For where?

    Impact for NC could start Thursday and continue all weekend. Depends on whether it stalls near or after landfall.

    For us further north any residual rain would be a concern late weekend or early next week based on current projections.

    The big story is as it nears the coast of NC it may try to stall offshore or just inland in NC as strong upper level high pressure to its north and northeast tries to trap it over NC.


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    Idk I just want to go on vacation lol. Flying out Saturday morning to Disney
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vodka Drunkenski View Post
    Idk I just want to go on vacation lol. Flying out Saturday morning to Disney
    Is it a direct flight? If Florence is spinning over the Carolinas and Virginia after landfall I'm expecting flights to be a mess. I guess they'd be rerouting alot of flights around the storm with many airports potentially closed in North Carolina and Virginia Friday into Saturday.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Parsley View Post
    Is it a direct flight? If Florence is spinning over the Carolinas and Virginia after landfall I'm expecting flights to be a mess. I guess they'd be rerouting alot of flights around the storm with many airports potentially closed in North Carolina and Virginia Friday into Saturday.
    Newark to Orlando direct
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vodka Drunkenski View Post
    Newark to Orlando direct
    That’s promising. Any transfers and you’d likely be fucked. Hopefully they’ll plan to just fly around the storm.

    What airline? Have they notified you about potential impending issues?


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    Quote Originally Posted by Parsley View Post
    That’s promising. Any transfers and you’d likely be fucked. Hopefully they’ll plan to just fly around the storm.

    What airline? Have they notified you about potential impending issues?


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    Quote Originally Posted by Parsley View Post
    After a summer with historical rain totals in the mid-Atlantic, this poses a serious flood threat if it landfalls in eastern NC and then spreads it’s rain north through Virginia, Maryland, West Virginia and Pennsylvania. Coastal flooding and erosion would be awful too all the way to southern New England.

    “We” those of us in the tristate area (and me in Pennsylvania) want a further south landfall.


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    My uncle lives directly across the street from the beach in Long Beach, and we went there one day twords the end of the summer and the beach was closed because they are trying to replenish the sand on the beaches. They are pumping sand up from the ocean because of all of the erosion.

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    Quote Originally Posted by NYR2711 View Post
    My uncle lives directly across the street from the beach in Long Beach, and we went there one day twords the end of the summer and the beach was closed because they are trying to replenish the sand on the beaches. They are pumping sand up from the ocean because of all of the erosion.
    Losing battle. Mother Nature wins in the end.


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    Quote Originally Posted by Parsley View Post
    Mother Nature wins in the end.
    always, until there's nothing left even mother nature

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    Tuesday morning update, still looks like a landfall in eastern NC between Wilmington and Cape Hatteras as the most likely scenario. What that would result in is immense coastal flooding, erosion and damage for the outer banks of NC and widespread inland flooding for North Carolina and Virginia. Models are diverging on the details once the storm reaches eastern NC, many try to sit it over that area for days which would be awful in terms of flooding.

    72 hour plotted forecast below, different model runs of the same model over the course of the past 2 days. X marks are verifications of storm location along modeled paths so far. This model has done a solid job so far based on those plots.
    Again, as the storm nears the coast there are some differing paths.
    Last edited by Parsley; 09-11-2018 at 09:47 AM.

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    Just a horrible scenario setting up over North Carolina, parts of Virginia and South Carolina. Pretty good agreement as we draw closer to the event with regards to location for a landfall which then could be followed by the storm losing almost all its forward speed and dumping feet of rain over that area.

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    If the storm gets buried that far south, it would spare areas further north from many adverse effects other than coastal flooding and beach erosion with a prolong easterly fetch of the Atlantic.

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    The Weather Thread

    Slight shifts southwest over the past 24 hours puts Myrtle Beach, SC to Wilmington, NC in the cross hairs. An ugly 3-5 days for the Carolinas. Even if the storm weakens some as it slows and interacts with land near landfall the rainfall will be tremendous.


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    The Weather Thread

    So what’s the time frame of this thing? I want to figure out if we will be delayed Saturday morning. And what are the chances it shifts south to Florida?
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vodka Drunkenski View Post
    So what’s the time frame of this thing? I want to figure out if we will be delayed Saturday morning. And what are the chances it shifts south to Florida?
    Shouldn’t shift that far south.

    Timing looks like shit weather Friday-Sunday for NC and SC and then into parts of Georgia and Virginia as it moves inland throughout the weekend.


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    The Weather Thread

    A flight to Florida from Newark on Saturday will require the plane to head west toward Ohio and Kentucky and then south through Tennessee and Alabama before hooking back east into Florida.

    Atleast in my eyes.


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    Not much change in the overall look to things. Major impact for eastern SC and eastern NC both coast and inland. Outer bands of the hurricane starting to come on shore now. Going to be a long 3-4 days for those folks. Even though it is no longer a "major" hurricane the slow speed of the storm will allow it to dump flooding rain while the beaches get battered for days with tidal flooding, major waves and beach erosion.


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