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The Weather Thread


GordonGecko

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North Carolina and South Carolina are in the cross-hairs at this point. One other potential scenario is Florence making landfall and stalling shortly thereafter or it stalling just off the coast and absolutely dumping rain wherever it stalls which would be devastating.

 

A further north track (into North Carolina or a brush of it over the Outer Banks) could set the stage for major flooding further north...toward our area if it then decided to slowly chug north or northeast thereafter.

 

Lots of BAD scenarios and we appear to be losing the good scenario of this storm missing everyone. In other words, it's becoming more likely someone is going to take it on the chin.

 

The map below shows the last few runs of the Euro models projections. Darkest bold cone is the most recent run, thinnest cone is from a few days ago. You see as the event draws nearer the cone is slowly shrinking in size (and taking aim on the Southeast Coast) at this point....

 

http://content.invisioncic.com/r250037/monthly_2018_09/cones120_ecmf_storm_atl_2018090900.png.449946b88f158b9ed3c0c95602f47abb.png

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Long story short for our area, if a further north landfall takes place and/or it stalls near or off the coast of North Carolina or perhaps Virginia it would set up a long period of easterly winds that would result in extreme beach erosion, potential tidal flooding and a threat for days of rain even as far north as us. A further south track into a place like South Carolina could result in it getting trapped over the Southeast U.S. as high pressure builds down over our area. That would be a better result for us and horrible for them down south.
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As of Monday morning, still looks like North Carolina is the primary target with South Carolina a close second. Lots of uncertainty still with regards to forward speed at landfall and whether it potentially slows or stalls near or after landfall.

 

http://content.invisioncic.com/r250037/monthly_2018_09/cones120_ecmf_storm_atl_2018091000.png.13294e87d2c0047d726a8002bbe1e031.png

 

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What?s the timeframe of this storm? Beginning/ending guesstimate?

 

For where?

 

Impact for NC could start Thursday and continue all weekend. Depends on whether it stalls near or after landfall.

 

For us further north any residual rain would be a concern late weekend or early next week based on current projections.

 

The big story is as it nears the coast of NC it may try to stall offshore or just inland in NC as strong upper level high pressure to its north and northeast tries to trap it over NC.

 

 

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I can?t believe that it went from a 1 this morning to a 4 in only a couple of hours, this thing has the potential to be very bad. They are saying it could hit land as a Cat 5

 

The ocean waters are ridiculously warm and all it takes is 6-12 hours with proper conditions overhead for it to bomb.

 

Intensity forecasting is way more fickle than landfall forecasting, although both aren?t easy.

 

 

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After a summer with historical rain totals in the mid-Atlantic, this poses a serious flood threat if it landfalls in eastern NC and then spreads it?s rain north through Virginia, Maryland, West Virginia and Pennsylvania. Coastal flooding and erosion would be awful too all the way to southern New England.

 

?We? those of us in the tristate area (and me in Pennsylvania) want a further south landfall.

 

 

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For where?

 

Impact for NC could start Thursday and continue all weekend. Depends on whether it stalls near or after landfall.

 

For us further north any residual rain would be a concern late weekend or early next week based on current projections.

 

The big story is as it nears the coast of NC it may try to stall offshore or just inland in NC as strong upper level high pressure to its north and northeast tries to trap it over NC.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Blueshirts Brotherhood mobile app powered by Tapatalk

 

Idk I just want to go on vacation lol. Flying out Saturday morning to Disney

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Idk I just want to go on vacation lol. Flying out Saturday morning to Disney

 

Is it a direct flight? If Florence is spinning over the Carolinas and Virginia after landfall I'm expecting flights to be a mess. I guess they'd be rerouting alot of flights around the storm with many airports potentially closed in North Carolina and Virginia Friday into Saturday.

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After a summer with historical rain totals in the mid-Atlantic, this poses a serious flood threat if it landfalls in eastern NC and then spreads it’s rain north through Virginia, Maryland, West Virginia and Pennsylvania. Coastal flooding and erosion would be awful too all the way to southern New England.

 

“We” those of us in the tristate area (and me in Pennsylvania) want a further south landfall.

 

 

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My uncle lives directly across the street from the beach in Long Beach, and we went there one day twords the end of the summer and the beach was closed because they are trying to replenish the sand on the beaches. They are pumping sand up from the ocean because of all of the erosion.

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My uncle lives directly across the street from the beach in Long Beach, and we went there one day twords the end of the summer and the beach was closed because they are trying to replenish the sand on the beaches. They are pumping sand up from the ocean because of all of the erosion.

 

Losing battle. Mother Nature wins in the end.

 

 

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