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How Does J.T. Miller's Extension with Tampa Affect Hayes?


Sod16

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There's the benchmark that Hayes and his agent will use. Miller has got to be considered a bit more of a valuable commodity, but this means Hayes gets at least $4.5 per and probably closer to 5.;

 

Hayes is asking for 5.5 according to Brooks. He's gotta be getting less than Miller for sure.

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Are you guys advocating the dreaded bridge contract?

 

Rangers were probably hoping for 4.5 x 5, but the Miller deal likely pushes this towards 5 X 5. They meet in the middle.

 

If signed to a 5 x 5 contract, wouldn't that make Hayes even more attractive as a trade chip? That will be a bargain contract as soon as next year. Teams like guys that are locked up in their prime for reasonable bucks. That's how a guy like Hamonic returns such a haul.

 

We need to something similar for Skjei while we can. Buy low on all of them. Forget these bridge contracts and lock em up till they are 30. Those contracts will not impede a trade in any way.

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This was always the case. He scored 25 goals, won over half his draws, plays on the PP and PK. That's the rate, really.

 

I haven't done a detailed study but I'm guessing the going rate for his production is what it is ... and it's probably right around that.

Plus Hayes brings size 9useful in a playoffs so that another team can't necessarily revert to plan B (i.e. "pound them into submission" which Washington did nicely with Vegas early in that series) and durability — also rare.

Cons: Room for improvement; disappointing playoffs since 2013-4

Pros: still has upside; plenty of room for improvement in playoffs

This is a fall 2017 discussion of his 5v5 defensive /offensive work -- before the team was blown up and top talent sold off.

It maybe explains whay there is tons of interest in Hayes around the league. because he has considerable value.

 

 

 

The first thing that jumps off the table at me, is that Hayes leads all Rangers skaters in every single per-60 shot suppression metric, which includes Corsi against (all shot attempts), Fenwick against (unblocked shot attempts) and shots against (shots on goal). Hayes also is third on the team in goals against, and second in expected goals against (which considers shot quality and quantity). The translation to this is that Hayes has by far one of the most significant positive impacts on the Rangers in terms of limiting the shot attempts, scoring chances and goals by opponents. In other words, relative to other Rangers players, Hayes has been elite in the defensive zone during 5v5 play.

http://www.blueshirtsbreakaway.com/2017/11/22/kevin-hayes-legit-second-line-center/

 

 

 

I'm aware of the dislike for Hayes and I don't share it.

Although the playoff frustration with him I do is share...but I think he can improve if he can make the necessary adjustments...

... and Quinn might just help him do that (whereas AV, fuhgeddaboudit!).

 

I've said it before; I don't believe this is a "full" or "down to the ground" rebuild. I just don't.

I don't buy that premise at all.

 

And, as such I think this team needs and wants to go into the season with some substance — i.e. Hayes and Zibs at center.

I don't see the team starting the season with two rookies (Chits and Lias) plus Namestnikov/Spooner and assorted cannon fodder. That just does not seem realistic, to me at least.

Now, what happens at the trade deadline/offseason is totally another story — depends a lot on how the season shakes out. IMO Hayes/Zibs trade talk is premature.

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Hayes and Miller have the exact same value, albeit for slightly different reasons. I expect a very similar contract. Hayes checks all the boxes you want out of a 2nd line center. There is a consideration as to whether he is a part of the long term rebuild, but you sign him for what he's worth and go easy on the trade clauses so you can move him if he becomes expendable if Andersson or Howden replace him cheaper down the road.
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Hayes and Miller have the exact same value, albeit for slightly different reasons. I expect a very similar contract. Hayes checks all the boxes you want out of a 2nd line center. There is a consideration as to whether he is a part of the long term rebuild, but you sign him for what he's worth and go easy on the trade clauses so you can move him if he becomes expendable if Andersson or Howden replace him cheaper down the road.

 

This.

 

Give him a 5x5 deal. In two years Chytil, Lias and Howden are ready so we can trade Hayes at 5m for 3 more years. If he continues his progress that will be a huge trade chip.

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Perhaps 5x5 is where the market is for Hayes, but I'm not sure that means we should pay it or it's in our best interest long term to do so given the direction the team is going.

I think that's fair. But like AJ said, Hayes is very tradeable. If he's under contract, that only improves the return you'd get for him.

 

5x$5m is an absolute steal for Hayes, and $5.5 is a pretty team-friendly ask. I know some don't like him b/c reasons, but that is a ton of value for what he brings to the table. He's got room to grow, of course, but I think it's a no-brainer. Ryan O'Reilly makes $7.5 in the same role as Hayes with significantly less 5v5 production.

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I think that's fair. But like AJ said, Hayes is very tradeable. If he's under contract, that only improves the return you'd get for him.

 

5x$5m is an absolute steal for Hayes, and $5.5 is a pretty team-friendly ask. I know some don't like him b/c reasons, but that is a ton of value for what he brings to the table. He's got room to grow, of course, but I think it's a no-brainer. Ryan O'Reilly makes $7.5 in the same role as Hayes with significantly less 5v5 production.

 

If he lives up to contract. He's not a lock to maintain or increase performance.

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Kevin Hayes has been in the league for 4 years. He has not once eclipsed 50 points. I think it's safe to say what kind of player he is. When you're paying 5 million dollars for someone who hasn't scored even 50 points, you're making a mistake.

 

Maybe his defense is good, but guess what? You pay for goals.

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Kevin Hayes has been in the league for 4 years. He has not once eclipsed 50 points. I think it's safe to say what kind of player he is. When you're paying 5 million dollars for someone who hasn't scored even 50 points, you're making a mistake.

 

Maybe his defense is good, but guess what? You pay for goals.

Guess how many non-ELC centers scored 25 goals last year but make less than $5m per year.

 

Now guess how many of them had multiple 25-goal seasons before they signed a deal for less than $5m per.

 

Now guess how many of them have a OZS% in the 40s.

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Kevin Hayes has been in the league for 4 years. He has not once eclipsed 50 points. I think it's safe to say what kind of player he is. When you're paying 5 million dollars for someone who hasn't scored even 50 points, you're making a mistake.

 

Maybe his defense is good, but guess what? You pay for goals.

 

And he scored 25 of them. Not bad for a 2nd line center, it's around what guys like Barkov, RNH and Marleau scored.

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Are you guys advocating the dreaded bridge contract?

 

Rangers were probably hoping for 4.5 x 5, but the Miller deal likely pushes this towards 5 X 5. They meet in the middle.

 

If signed to a 5 x 5 contract, wouldn't that make Hayes even more attractive as a trade chip? That will be a bargain contract as soon as next year. Teams like guys that are locked up in their prime for reasonable bucks. That's how a guy like Hamonic returns such a haul.

 

We need to something similar for Skjei while we can. Buy low on all of them. Forget these bridge contracts and lock em up till they are 30. Those contracts will not impede a trade in any way.

 

It doesn't. One plays wing, one is a matchup center.

 

Hayes should get 5 x $5 all day. There's less than 5 guys in the league who do what he does. He could easily have asked for $6m and have a strong case.

 

Strongly agree with both these posts.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Blueshirts Brotherhood mobile app powered by Tapatalk

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And he scored 25 of them. Not bad for a 2nd line center, it's around what guys like Barkov, RNH and Marleau scored.

 

This comparison doesn't work though. Marleau makes 1.5m. Barkov is a PPG player...

 

I guess what I'm saying is that if the going rate for a 2nd/3rd line center who plays "good defense" is 5+ million, I don't want any part of it. If that's the trend, fine. Doesn't mean we can't buck the trend. He's four seasons into his career. He's absolutely not worth 5 million dollars in cap space.

 

If I were the GM, I'd do a bridge deal. 5 years from now we'll have actual talent and we'll need that space. We already have three centers who project higher than him so that means he'll be a 5m dollar 4th liner in 2 years?

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gut reaction was to say just deal him now, but the 5x5 is a credible argument for a guy still on the upside. move him now and he improves next year or if he stays and blossoms more under quinn and maybe you sell a bit low this summer.

 

guess in the end there is no rush to do anything here.

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The important thing to remember here is that the cap hit is relative to the cap. Percentage of cap is a far more valuable metric to be mindful of rather than the number alone. A $5 million AAV signed for a near $80 million cap ceiling isn't equal to a $5 million AAV signed under $71.4 or $73 million.
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Hayes is like a box of chocolates. On paper, Corsi, Fenwick, blah blah, he gets 5 x $5 all day. But for the people who watched every single game, he's an absolute enigma. So for every positive stat there is, he has an equal amount of really bothersome negatives. Ex.- Total lack of physical play- has he ever stuck up for a teammate or Hank? Never, even though he's the biggest guy on the team. He hardly ever hits anyone. How many 2 on 1s did he completely botch? Last season he started to make those ridiculous flip passes that never worked. How many times did he carry the puck around the off zone doing laps, then lost it. How about those 20lbs he lost so he was quicker. He didn't even make it till Xmas before he started skating like a slug. Yes, I was happy at the end of the season to see him actually shoot the puck but it seemed pointless at that time. Trade him now while he's showing well, at least on paper.

 

Sent from my SM-N900T using Blueshirts Brotherhood mobile app powered by Tapatalk

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Just because he doesn’t do what you want him to do, doesn’t mean he’s an enigma. Complete opposite, as he can contribute when he’s not scoring, and still can impact the game when he’s “not on his game”, unlike a guy like Zibanejad or Miller.

 

I mean, you can complain about his choice of shoot/pass on a 2 on 1, but don’t neglect that he continues to find himself in these opportunities. Fixing how he finishes a play is easier than getting a player to create these opportunities on a regular basis.

 

He’s not slow. He’s incredibly effective with his speed. He knows how and when to use it. Sprinting up the ice only gets you out of position faster. Having one of the best +/- on the team is a result of this.

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