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Thread: How Does J.T. Miller's Extension with Tampa Affect Hayes?

  1. #21
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    They'll have absolutely no problem trading him as a $5 million player however many years into his deal.


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    gut reaction was to say just deal him now, but the 5x5 is a credible argument for a guy still on the upside. move him now and he improves next year or if he stays and blossoms more under quinn and maybe you sell a bit low this summer.

    guess in the end there is no rush to do anything here.
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    The important thing to remember here is that the cap hit is relative to the cap. Percentage of cap is a far more valuable metric to be mindful of rather than the number alone. A $5 million AAV signed for a near $80 million cap ceiling isn't equal to a $5 million AAV signed under $71.4 or $73 million.
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    Hayes is like a box of chocolates. On paper, Corsi, Fenwick, blah blah, he gets 5 x $5 all day. But for the people who watched every single game, he's an absolute enigma. So for every positive stat there is, he has an equal amount of really bothersome negatives. Ex.- Total lack of physical play- has he ever stuck up for a teammate or Hank? Never, even though he's the biggest guy on the team. He hardly ever hits anyone. How many 2 on 1s did he completely botch? Last season he started to make those ridiculous flip passes that never worked. How many times did he carry the puck around the off zone doing laps, then lost it. How about those 20lbs he lost so he was quicker. He didn't even make it till Xmas before he started skating like a slug. Yes, I was happy at the end of the season to see him actually shoot the puck but it seemed pointless at that time. Trade him now while he's showing well, at least on paper.

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    Just because he doesn’t do what you want him to do, doesn’t mean he’s an enigma. Complete opposite, as he can contribute when he’s not scoring, and still can impact the game when he’s “not on his game”, unlike a guy like Zibanejad or Miller.

    I mean, you can complain about his choice of shoot/pass on a 2 on 1, but don’t neglect that he continues to find himself in these opportunities. Fixing how he finishes a play is easier than getting a player to create these opportunities on a regular basis.

    He’s not slow. He’s incredibly effective with his speed. He knows how and when to use it. Sprinting up the ice only gets you out of position faster. Having one of the best +/- on the team is a result of this.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Future View Post
    I think that's fair. But like AJ said, Hayes is very tradeable. If he's under contract, that only improves the return you'd get for him.

    5x$5m is an absolute steal for Hayes, and $5.5 is a pretty team-friendly ask. I know some don't like him b/c reasons, but that is a ton of value for what he brings to the table. He's got room to grow, of course, but I think it's a no-brainer. Ryan O'Reilly makes $7.5 in the same role as Hayes with significantly less 5v5 production.
    Signing him long term ensures some kind of no movement clause is inserted.

    If he's so valuable trade him now.

    IMO, he's not a 2nd line center. He's not a set up man, he's not a goal scorer, he doesn't make anyone on his line better. He's an opportunistic 3rd line center. I'm shocked at his production numbers. Offensuvely, he a god damn mess on the ice. He seems so inept when he gains the blue line. Just skates into the corner. Never to the net, never to a shooting position. How the fuck has this guy flirted with 50 points!???

    I really don't want to keep him here to be a shut down center at 5 mill, when I feel Andersson will take on that role soon. If not him, then Howden. If not Howden, who cares? Go with Nieves...

    They didn't want to pay Hagelin to be a defensive specialist who put in 35-40 points and did dick on the PP. And that was the right choice. Make that choice again. But this time get something. Please?

    Don't want em.

  7. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by Future View Post
    Guess how many non-ELC centers scored 25 goals last year but make less than $5m per year.

    Now guess how many of them had multiple 25-goal seasons before they signed a deal for less than $5m per.

    Now guess how many of them have a OZS% in the 40s.
    8, 11 75. How'd I do?

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    Senior Member Pee-Wee Division rmc51's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Dude View Post
    Signing him long term ensures some kind of no movement clause is inserted.

    If he's so valuable trade him now.

    IMO, he's not a 2nd line center. He's not a set up man, he's not a goal scorer, he doesn't make anyone on his line better. He's an opportunistic 3rd line center. I'm shocked at his production numbers. Offensuvely, he a god damn mess on the ice. He seems so inept when he gains the blue line. Just skates into the corner. Never to the net, never to a shooting position. How the fuck has this guy flirted with 50 points!???

    I really don't want to keep him here to be a shut down center at 5 mill, when I feel Andersson will take on that role soon. If not him, then Howden. If not Howden, who cares? Go with Nieves...

    They didn't want to pay Hagelin to be a defensive specialist who put in 35-40 points and did dick on the PP. And that was the right choice. Make that choice again. But this time get something. Please?

    Don't want em.
    Much of this is pretty accurate. The guy has been here 4 years, and the ice time goes up but the production does not. He wasn't overly good his first three years. I would argue his spot could have been taken on numerous occasions. Last year was the first year where I felt he was being a productive member on ice and he was pretty good at the role he needed to fill, which was to be a shutdown defensive 3rd line center. I'm having trouble with a 5x5 deal because he could just as easily regress as he could get better, and then we are stuck with it. And no, I don't agree with the people saying it's an easy contract to get rid of. If he regresses enough (say sub 40 points), I don't believe it would be easy to get rid of.

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    And how much can a 26 year old fatso improve?

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    Quote Originally Posted by rmc51 View Post
    Much of this is pretty accurate. The guy has been here 4 years, and the ice time goes up but the production does not. He wasn't overly good his first three years. I would argue his spot could have been taken on numerous occasions. Last year was the first year where I felt he was being a productive member on ice and he was pretty good at the role he needed to fill, which was to be a shutdown defensive 3rd line center. I'm having trouble with a 5x5 deal because he could just as easily regress as he could get better, and then we are stuck with it. And no, I don't agree with the people saying it's an easy contract to get rid of. If he regresses enough (say sub 40 points), I don't believe it would be easy to get rid of.
    0.57, 0.46, 0.64, 0.58 P/GP averages in each of the last four years.

    17, 14, 17, 25 goals over the same span. There's progress there. Especially for a player who has been relied on in a heavy defensive checking role.


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  11. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Dude View Post
    And how much can a 26 year old fatso improve?
    The end of the season was a glimpse.

    And it’s not like his game is incredibly physically taxing on the body. He could have 10 + more seasons in him.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Future View Post
    Guess how many non-ELC centers scored 25 goals last year but make less than $5m per year.

    Now guess how many of them had multiple 25-goal seasons before they signed a deal for less than $5m per.

    Now guess how many of them have a OZS% in the 40s.
    What does this even mean? Non-ELCs? That's not quantifiable. Look, I'm not some capologist and I'm not a corsi guy. I don't care what his offensive zone start percentage is. It means almost nothing when you evaluate the stats that matter. He was a fucking bum last year until the season was officially lost. 15 points before January as (supposedly) a 2nd line center. He went on a tear when the season was dead. When it didn't matter. He doesn't get 5 million dollars for that. Not if it's up to me, anyway.

    He could be the 3rd line center as soon as next season and the 4th line center the season after that. He's just not that good. He's never scored 50 points even when given ample opportunity to prove himself. I'm glad he became a shut down guy, that's great. But you don't pay that player 5m dollars.
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    Offensive zone start percentage has nothing to do with corsi, and Entry-level contacts are quantifiable.

    You're literally responding to empirical data with feelings.


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  14. #34
    Senior Member Pee-Wee Division rmc51's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Phil in Absentia View Post
    0.57, 0.46, 0.64, 0.58 P/GP averages in each of the last four years.

    17, 14, 17, 25 goals over the same span. There's progress there. Especially for a player who has been relied on in a heavy defensive checking role.


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    For me it is more than just about goals. What about assists and overall point totals year over year? And the increase in ice time over those years? Why hasn't point production gone up with more ice time? That 25 goal total looks closer to an outlier more than a new norm.

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    Quote Originally Posted by rmc51 View Post
    For me it is more than just about goals. What about assists and overall point totals year over year? And the increase in ice time over those years? Why hasn't point production gone up with more ice time? That 25 goal total looks closer to an outlier more than a new norm.
    He's one of the strongest 5v5 point producers in the entire league.



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    Quote Originally Posted by Phil in Absentia View Post
    Offensive zone start percentage has nothing to do with corsi, and Entry-level contacts are quantifiable.

    You're literally responding to empirical data with feelings.


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    My fault, I miss understood the acronym for some reason.

    My point is, I'm not measuring him against other players within specific categories, I'm measuring him to all other NHL standards. Add the wild swings of inconsistency and flat out laziness and I don't even consider it.

    I've made no mistake about it, I hate the player. I think he's a moron. I wouldn't pay him $5 let alone 5m. But if he's going to be a 3rd line center on the team, it either can't be for 5 years or it can't be for 5 million.
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    OK, but the facts don't align with your aspersions. You just don't want the player.


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  18. #38
    Senior Member Pee-Wee Division rmc51's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Phil in Absentia View Post
    He's one of the strongest 5v5 point producers in the entire league.



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    There are two sides to every story. That article is heavily slanted towards one side, leaving more questions than it tries to answer. It also does a tremendous job at cherry picking stats.
    Last edited by rmc51; 06-27-2018 at 11:16 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Phil in Absentia View Post
    The important thing to remember here is that the cap hit is relative to the cap. Percentage of cap is a far more valuable metric to be mindful of rather than the number alone. A $5 million AAV signed for a near $80 million cap ceiling isn't equal to a $5 million AAV signed under $71.4 or $73 million.
    This.

    I think some people hear 5m and thinks it more than it actually is. The cap has increased significantly the last years (especially this year), so 5m now is not 5m five years ago.

    Should start to focus on how many percentages of the cap a contract will be, instead of the number. The number in itself is irrelevant for us fans - Hayes could get 20m a year for all I care as long as he dont take up much of the cap space we got.

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    How Does J.T. Miller's Extension with Tampa Affect Hayes?

    And this is why (sadly) Hayes is worth roughly the same amount in today’s NHL. Rangers will have to fork it out....or move him.


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