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Thread: How Does J.T. Miller's Extension with Tampa Affect Hayes?

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    Senior Member Squirt Division Sod16's Avatar
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    How Does J.T. Miller's Extension with Tampa Affect Hayes?

    There's the benchmark that Hayes and his agent will use. Miller has got to be considered a bit more of a valuable commodity, but this means Hayes gets at least $4.5 per and probably closer to 5.;

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sod16 View Post
    There's the benchmark that Hayes and his agent will use. Miller has got to be considered a bit more of a valuable commodity, but this means Hayes gets at least $4.5 per and probably closer to 5.;
    Hayes is asking for 5.5 according to Brooks. He's gotta be getting less than Miller for sure.
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    This was always the case. He scored 25 goals, won over half his draws, plays on the PP and PK. That's the rate, really.

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    I’ll text Hayes to sign3.5x 8
    Lias Andersson for #AJT2019

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    Quote Originally Posted by ThirtyONE View Post
    Hayes is asking for 5.5 according to Brooks. He's gotta be getting less than Miller for sure.
    5.5 for Hayes is a straight up "how about no" in my book. I mean surely not.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ThirtyONE View Post
    Hayes is asking for 5.5 according to Brooks. He's gotta be getting less than Miller for sure.
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    Are you guys advocating the dreaded bridge contract?

    Rangers were probably hoping for 4.5 x 5, but the Miller deal likely pushes this towards 5 X 5. They meet in the middle.

    If signed to a 5 x 5 contract, wouldn't that make Hayes even more attractive as a trade chip? That will be a bargain contract as soon as next year. Teams like guys that are locked up in their prime for reasonable bucks. That's how a guy like Hamonic returns such a haul.

    We need to something similar for Skjei while we can. Buy low on all of them. Forget these bridge contracts and lock em up till they are 30. Those contracts will not impede a trade in any way.
    Last edited by Giacomin; 06-27-2018 at 09:30 AM.

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    It doesn't. One plays wing, one is a matchup center.

    Hayes should get 5 x $5 all day. There's less than 5 guys in the league who do what he does. He could easily have asked for $6m and have a strong case.
    Last edited by Future; 06-27-2018 at 09:59 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pete View Post
    This was always the case. He scored 25 goals, won over half his draws, plays on the PP and PK. That's the rate, really.
    I haven't done a detailed study but I'm guessing the going rate for his production is what it is ... and it's probably right around that.
    Plus Hayes brings size 9useful in a playoffs so that another team can't necessarily revert to plan B (i.e. "pound them into submission" which Washington did nicely with Vegas early in that series) and durability — also rare.
    Cons: Room for improvement; disappointing playoffs since 2013-4
    Pros: still has upside; plenty of room for improvement in playoffs
    This is a fall 2017 discussion of his 5v5 defensive /offensive work -- before the team was blown up and top talent sold off.
    It maybe explains whay there is tons of interest in Hayes around the league. because he has considerable value.



    The first thing that jumps off the table at me, is that Hayes leads all Rangers skaters in every single per-60 shot suppression metric, which includes Corsi against (all shot attempts), Fenwick against (unblocked shot attempts) and shots against (shots on goal). Hayes also is third on the team in goals against, and second in expected goals against (which considers shot quality and quantity). The translation to this is that Hayes has by far one of the most significant positive impacts on the Rangers in terms of limiting the shot attempts, scoring chances and goals by opponents. In other words, relative to other Rangers players, Hayes has been elite in the defensive zone during 5v5 play.
    http://www.blueshirtsbreakaway.com/2...d-line-center/

    I'm aware of the dislike for Hayes and I don't share it.
    Although the playoff frustration with him I do is share...but I think he can improve if he can make the necessary adjustments...
    ... and Quinn might just help him do that (whereas AV, fuhgeddaboudit!).

    I've said it before; I don't believe this is a "full" or "down to the ground" rebuild. I just don't.
    I don't buy that premise at all.

    And, as such I think this team needs and wants to go into the season with some substance — i.e. Hayes and Zibs at center.
    I don't see the team starting the season with two rookies (Chits and Lias) plus Namestnikov/Spooner and assorted cannon fodder. That just does not seem realistic, to me at least.
    Now, what happens at the trade deadline/offseason is totally another story — depends a lot on how the season shakes out. IMO Hayes/Zibs trade talk is premature.
    Last edited by Respecttheblue; 06-27-2018 at 10:01 AM. Reason: Oops -- added attribution!
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    Hayes and Miller have the exact same value, albeit for slightly different reasons. I expect a very similar contract. Hayes checks all the boxes you want out of a 2nd line center. There is a consideration as to whether he is a part of the long term rebuild, but you sign him for what he's worth and go easy on the trade clauses so you can move him if he becomes expendable if Andersson or Howden replace him cheaper down the road.
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    Quote Originally Posted by AmericanJesus View Post
    Hayes and Miller have the exact same value, albeit for slightly different reasons. I expect a very similar contract. Hayes checks all the boxes you want out of a 2nd line center. There is a consideration as to whether he is a part of the long term rebuild, but you sign him for what he's worth and go easy on the trade clauses so you can move him if he becomes expendable if Andersson or Howden replace him cheaper down the road.
    This.

    Give him a 5x5 deal. In two years Chytil, Lias and Howden are ready so we can trade Hayes at 5m for 3 more years. If he continues his progress that will be a huge trade chip.

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    Perhaps 5x5 is where the market is for Hayes, but I'm not sure that means we should pay it or it's in our best interest long term to do so given the direction the team is going.

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    Quote Originally Posted by rmc51 View Post
    Perhaps 5x5 is where the market is for Hayes, but I'm not sure that means we should pay it or it's in our best interest long term to do so given the direction the team is going.
    I think that's fair. But like AJ said, Hayes is very tradeable. If he's under contract, that only improves the return you'd get for him.

    5x$5m is an absolute steal for Hayes, and $5.5 is a pretty team-friendly ask. I know some don't like him b/c reasons, but that is a ton of value for what he brings to the table. He's got room to grow, of course, but I think it's a no-brainer. Ryan O'Reilly makes $7.5 in the same role as Hayes with significantly less 5v5 production.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Future View Post
    I think that's fair. But like AJ said, Hayes is very tradeable. If he's under contract, that only improves the return you'd get for him.

    5x$5m is an absolute steal for Hayes, and $5.5 is a pretty team-friendly ask. I know some don't like him b/c reasons, but that is a ton of value for what he brings to the table. He's got room to grow, of course, but I think it's a no-brainer. Ryan O'Reilly makes $7.5 in the same role as Hayes with significantly less 5v5 production.
    If he lives up to contract. He's not a lock to maintain or increase performance.

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    Quote Originally Posted by rmc51 View Post
    If he lives up to contract. He's not a lock to maintain or increase performance.
    Eh, that's true for 9/10 new contracts.

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    Kevin Hayes has been in the league for 4 years. He has not once eclipsed 50 points. I think it's safe to say what kind of player he is. When you're paying 5 million dollars for someone who hasn't scored even 50 points, you're making a mistake.

    Maybe his defense is good, but guess what? You pay for goals.
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    Quote Originally Posted by ThirtyONE View Post
    Kevin Hayes has been in the league for 4 years. He has not once eclipsed 50 points. I think it's safe to say what kind of player he is. When you're paying 5 million dollars for someone who hasn't scored even 50 points, you're making a mistake.

    Maybe his defense is good, but guess what? You pay for goals.
    Guess how many non-ELC centers scored 25 goals last year but make less than $5m per year.

    Now guess how many of them had multiple 25-goal seasons before they signed a deal for less than $5m per.

    Now guess how many of them have a OZS% in the 40s.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ThirtyONE View Post
    Kevin Hayes has been in the league for 4 years. He has not once eclipsed 50 points. I think it's safe to say what kind of player he is. When you're paying 5 million dollars for someone who hasn't scored even 50 points, you're making a mistake.

    Maybe his defense is good, but guess what? You pay for goals.
    And he scored 25 of them. Not bad for a 2nd line center, it's around what guys like Barkov, RNH and Marleau scored.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Giacomin View Post
    Are you guys advocating the dreaded bridge contract?

    Rangers were probably hoping for 4.5 x 5, but the Miller deal likely pushes this towards 5 X 5. They meet in the middle.

    If signed to a 5 x 5 contract, wouldn't that make Hayes even more attractive as a trade chip? That will be a bargain contract as soon as next year. Teams like guys that are locked up in their prime for reasonable bucks. That's how a guy like Hamonic returns such a haul.

    We need to something similar for Skjei while we can. Buy low on all of them. Forget these bridge contracts and lock em up till they are 30. Those contracts will not impede a trade in any way.
    Quote Originally Posted by Future View Post
    It doesn't. One plays wing, one is a matchup center.

    Hayes should get 5 x $5 all day. There's less than 5 guys in the league who do what he does. He could easily have asked for $6m and have a strong case.
    Strongly agree with both these posts.


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    Quote Originally Posted by Pete View Post
    And he scored 25 of them. Not bad for a 2nd line center, it's around what guys like Barkov, RNH and Marleau scored.
    This comparison doesn't work though. Marleau makes 1.5m. Barkov is a PPG player...

    I guess what I'm saying is that if the going rate for a 2nd/3rd line center who plays "good defense" is 5+ million, I don't want any part of it. If that's the trend, fine. Doesn't mean we can't buck the trend. He's four seasons into his career. He's absolutely not worth 5 million dollars in cap space.

    If I were the GM, I'd do a bridge deal. 5 years from now we'll have actual talent and we'll need that space. We already have three centers who project higher than him so that means he'll be a 5m dollar 4th liner in 2 years?
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