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Rangers? Should Alter Draft Lottery Fate


Phil

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A shot at first overall?a right earned by the lowly Buffalo Sabres?is as long a shot as there can be. For a club as down on their luck as the Sabres have been for years, the opportunity to draft superstar defenseman Rasmus Dahlin this summer is one they?re unlikely to pass on. Not even for the collection of later picks the Rangers could offer, including the Boston Bruins and Tampa Bay Lightning?s selections this year.

 

Equally unlikely, though to lesser degrees, is the idea of acquiring the ability to select either Andrei Svechnikov or Filip Zadina, who should be chosen with the second and third-overall picks owned by the Carolina Hurricanes and Montr?al Canadiens respectively. Both teams are starving for star-quality offensive players to build around ? an issue of more importance than selling either stud prospect for whatever collection of assets the Blueshirts might offer.

 

But beyond these essentially immovable positions, there could lie an opportunity to achieve Gorton?s goal of improving his club?s chance at an impact prospect. ?We?ll have various conversations leading into the draft,? said Gorton, who acquired the seventh overall pick from the Coyotes last year in a draft day blockbuster trade. ?There are a number of different scenarios we?ll consider.?

 

Two of those scenarios are likely to involve the Ottawa Senators and Arizona Coyotes?franchises the Rangers are familiar trading with?who each secured the fourth and fifth overall spots respectively. Either could offer Gorton and his Rangers a path to a top-five pick. One they could use to select from a group of quality youngsters just shy of the Dahlin-, Svechnikov-, or Zadina-types, but still more valuable than the names expected to fall to the nine hole.

 

That group should include names like forward Oliver Wahlstrom, and defensemen Adam Boqvist, Evan Bouchard, Noah Dobson, and Quinn Hughes. Not to mention Brady Tkachuk. Logically, one of those six players will fall to the Rangers should they stick with the ninth pick, but if they really wish to select one of them more than any other, they?d need to move up to assure they get their man.

 

For players like Bouchard, Hughes, and Boqvist, that?s a price probably worth paying. Regarding Tkachuk, however, it?s unclear if paying the price to move up four or five slots to select him would ultimately be worth it. His combination of size, strength, and physicality are surely valuable, but perhaps not at the cost of passing up on more skilled options.

 

https://thehockeywriters.com/new-york-rangers-draft-lottery-moves/

 

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It might feel like fence sitting, but I'd almost be equally content with moving up (barring cost) to select someone they really like who they don't think will fall to nine (Hughes, Bouchard, or Boqvist most likely) or just making three selections in the first round. BOS and TBL picks aren't going to be great, but this is feeling like the deepest draft in years.

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It doesn't hurt to inquire about the price of moving up. The fact of the matter is NHL viability dramatically decreases as the first round ends and as the later rounds continue. So if you can get your way into the top-five by moving, say, the 9th, a player, and an extra second, it's probably worth it. It just depends who they take with that pick.

 

 

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I move up for Tkachuk more so than the other names. I'd say his skill level is almost in line with the "more skilled options" but adds that missing snarl and is probably closer to being ready for the league than the other options (I base this on nothing but him being NA)

 

If anyone is interested in trading out of that 4,5,6 slot, I think Tkachuk is the no brainer. I see it costing a shit load though. At least the 9th pick and one of the other 1st as well as a young player. Hopefully Hayes.

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It doesn't hurt to inquire about the price of moving up. The fact of the matter is NHL viability dramatically decreases as the first round ends and as the later rounds continue. So if you can get your way into the top-five by moving, say, the 9th, a player, and an extra second, it's probably worth it. It just depends who they take with that pick.

 

 

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I think it will take more than that to move up

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If we trade with Ottawa, it would cost Bobby Ryan's contract, most likely. They are eager to shed $$$, hence the Phaneuf-Gaborik trade. We have had our way with Phoenix previously, so outside of Ottawa I don't see a viable trade partner to move up, personally. All the other teams need as much help as we do.

 

 

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The only reason to trade up is because they have identified a player they have to have. Who is that player? Far as I can tell there is about five guys depending on who you ask. Is Tkachuk the guy? If so that trade has to be made draft day when the pick you are trading for is on the clock and that player is still sitting there.

 

If the rangers were to move up I’d be more moving the two late firsts to try and get into the top 15 again. There are a lot of huge upside picks between 10-20.

 

To be honest though I’m not sure Tkachuk or whomever is picked at 4 or 5 is going to better than wahlstrom or Farabee at 9. I’d rather have the extra lottery ticket at 28.

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[quote=Phil in Absentia;926327The fact of the matter is NHL viability dramatically decreases as the first round ends and as the later rounds continue.

 

 

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Exactly, and every NHL GM is well aware of this, which is why moving up for anything close to a reasonable price is improbable. In terms of moving up, trading the 27th and 30th picks for the 20th might be something you want to do if, when you get to about the 19th pick, there is a player you really have the hots for who is still available but is unlikely to still be around at 27. Another team might be thinking that your chances of getting a single good NHL player with the 27th and 30th picks is better than if you just had the 20th. In short, finding a way to package the two late first round picks to get perhaps a mid first rounder is probably more realistic than finding a way to turn the No. 9 into a 3, 4 or 5.

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The way I see it, there are two good spots to be in.

 

1) 4th/5th overall - you're outside the top-4 but you can take either Boqvist or Tkachuk. If you're really lucky, Zadina or Svechnikov might even drop to 4th.

2) 10th/11th overall - the players from around 6th-11th seem very equal. Dobson, Wahlstrom, Smith, Bouchard, Hughes, Veleno. You could argue that it doesn't matter which one of those you get, and thus the best value is in the outskirts. You won't have the luxury of choosing between them, but you simply pick whomever falls to 10th/11th.

 

So I see two moving scenarios - either you move for Arizona or Ottawa's picks before the draft OR you make a move at the draft if the Islanders really want a certain guy at 9th.

 

I have a feeling that the Rangers want Tkachuk. He just really seems like the kind of guy they would like. I think they would have picked him at 2nd OA, even. Moving up to 4th to get him makes a lot of sense IMO.

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The more I think about it, Kotkaniemi sounds more and more like our pick.

 

Just like Lias and Filip. Playing in his home country against pros, one of the younger players in the draft and a little off the boards at #9 in real Rangers fashion. Another C tho, would leave us with 4 first round center prospects (Lias, Chytil, Howden, Kotka).

 

I dont know, just dont fuck this up Gorton.

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The way I see it, there are two good spots to be in.

 

1) 4th/5th overall - you're outside the top-4 but you can take either Boqvist or Tkachuk. If you're really lucky, Zadina or Svechnikov might even drop to 4th.

2) 10th/11th overall - the players from around 6th-11th seem very equal. Dobson, Wahlstrom, Smith, Bouchard, Hughes, Veleno. You could argue that it doesn't matter which one of those you get, and thus the best value is in the outskirts. You won't have the luxury of choosing between them, but you simply pick whomever falls to 10th/11th.

 

So I see two moving scenarios - either you move for Arizona or Ottawa's picks before the draft OR you make a move at the draft if the Islanders really want a certain guy at 9th.

 

I have a feeling that the Rangers want Tkachuk. He just really seems like the kind of guy they would like. I think they would have picked him at 2nd OA, even. Moving up to 4th to get him makes a lot of sense IMO.

 

I'd go with this. I really want Tkachuk, that's no secret, but I think the only way here is trading for 4th or 5th.

6/7/8 is much of a muchness and will cost a lot more than it's worth.

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I'd go with this. I really want Tkachuk, that's no secret, but I think the only way here is trading for 4th or 5th.

6/7/8 is much of a muchness and will cost a lot more than it's worth.

 

Yeah, exactly. I think the scenarios are:

 

Dahlin: 1

Svechnikov: 2-3

Zadina: 2-4

Tkachuk: 2-5

Boqvist: 4-5

 

So with the 4th pick you are very likely choosing between two of Zadina, Tkachuk and Boqvist. I would easily give up a late 1st to put myself in that position, but more than likely, Ottawa sees it the same way.

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The way I see it, there are two good spots to be in.

 

1) 4th/5th overall - you're outside the top-4 but you can take either Boqvist or Tkachuk. If you're really lucky, Zadina or Svechnikov might even drop to 4th.

2) 10th/11th overall - the players from around 6th-11th seem very equal. Dobson, Wahlstrom, Smith, Bouchard, Hughes, Veleno. You could argue that it doesn't matter which one of those you get, and thus the best value is in the outskirts. You won't have the luxury of choosing between them, but you simply pick whomever falls to 10th/11th.

 

So I see two moving scenarios - either you move for Arizona or Ottawa's picks before the draft OR you make a move at the draft if the Islanders really want a certain guy at 9th.

 

I have a feeling that the Rangers want Tkachuk. He just really seems like the kind of guy they would like. I think they would have picked him at 2nd OA, even. Moving up to 4th to get him makes a lot of sense IMO.

I think the team that takes Tkachuk at 4 might be disappointed.

 

Giving up even more for the right to the 4 pick to take him is overkill.

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I think the team that takes Tkachuk at 4 might be disappointed.

 

Giving up even more for the right to the 4 pick to take him is overkill.

 

Don't take this the wrong way as I'm not trying to be a dick, but what do you know that literally every single scout worth his salt doesn't?

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The Isles have so many holes...that seems foolish.

 

The rangers don’t? The isles are in better shape than the rangers especially if Tavares stays which is more likely than him landing with the rangers. They have barzal and a better group of forwards than the rangers. Their defense is suspect but the rangers are worse. Their goaltending is a disaster. All in all though they have a better prospect pool and have at least an equal roster to the rangers. They don’t have a goalie but even without Tavares they have barzal which is nearly impossible to find.

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I agree though I think it would be foolish for them to trade up as it would be for the rangers. Trading up for the rangers should consist of moving the late firsts into a teen pick not the 9 into a top 5. The value here is in the middle of the first round not overpaying for a top five.
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The rangers don’t? The isles are in better shape than the rangers especially if Tavares stays which is more likely than him landing with the rangers. They have barzal and a better group of forwards than the rangers. Their defense is suspect but the rangers are worse. Their goaltending is a disaster. All in all though they have a better prospect pool and have at least an equal roster to the rangers. They don’t have a goalie but even without Tavares they have barzal which is nearly impossible to find.

Idk that I agree with this. Other than JT and Barzal, they don't have anything. Lee, Eberle and Beauvillier are alright, but their production is a product of those two guys. de Haan is probably the only defenseman who would be an actual upgrade on NYR, and that's only after whoever is on the third pair.

 

There's a reason they were worse than the Rangers after the deadline.

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Idk that I agree with this. Other than JT and Barzal, they don't have anything. Lee, Eberle and Beauvillier are alright, but their production is a product of those two guys. de Haan is probably the only defenseman who would be an actual upgrade on NYR, and that's only after whoever is on the third pair.

 

There's a reason they were worse than the Rangers after the deadline.

 

Splitting hairs when discussing forwards, rangers have more depth while the isles have barzal and maybe Tavares with capable others. Defense both teams are train wrecks. Point is the rangers have tons of holes just like the isles. My point was if it’s foolish for the isles than it’s foolish for the rangers. If you don’t view it as foolish that’s fine but the isles are probably in a better spot to trade up. That’s all

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