There’s no getting the toothpaste back in the tube, but with just one year left of Restricted Free Agency (RFA), anything more than a one-year extension between Miller and the Rangers will come at a premium. That’s the price the Blueshirts will pay after kicking the can down the road. There’s no changing that now because there is no changing the economic reality of his looming Unrestricted Free Agency (UFA) status in 2019.
Just as his agent Brian Barlett predicted, the Rangers decision will result in a much greater sum of money to “re-up” now that Miller’s game has progressed. Given his age and contract status, it’s not difficult to project a baseline AAV of no less than $5M given comparable contracts signed by his peers in recent years.
This group has an average C.H% of roughly 7% and a collective AAV of $5.05M — a very healthy baseline for Barlett to set for his client. It’s quite possible Miller earns more, too. Palat, Niederreiter, and Schenn, who he most directly compares with, have an aggregate AAV of $5.21M.
This all, of course, is assuming the Rangers re-sign Miller anytime between now and somewhere around the midway point of the season. If he breaks the 60-point mark this season after scoring 56 points in the first year of his bridge deal the price tag would likely go up as a result.
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