J.T. Miller is About to Get Paid

[ClearedForContact]

There’s no getting the toothpaste back in the tube, but with just one year left of Restricted Free Agency (RFA), anything more than a one-year extension between Miller and the Rangers will come at a premium. That’s the price the Blueshirts will pay after kicking the can down the road. There’s no changing that now because there is no changing the economic reality of his looming Unrestricted Free Agency (UFA) status in 2019.

Just as his agent Brian Barlett predicted, the Rangers decision will result in a much greater sum of money to “re-up” now that Miller’s game has progressed. Given his age and contract status, it’s not difficult to project a baseline AAV of no less than $5M given comparable contracts signed by his peers in recent years.



This group has an average C.H% of roughly 7% and a collective AAV of $5.05M — a very healthy baseline for Barlett to set for his client. It’s quite possible Miller earns more, too. Palat, Niederreiter, and Schenn, who he most directly compares with, have an aggregate AAV of $5.21M.

This all, of course, is assuming the Rangers re-sign Miller anytime between now and somewhere around the midway point of the season. If he breaks the 60-point mark this season after scoring 56 points in the first year of his bridge deal the price tag would likely go up as a result.

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[Rangers]

JT will definitely get paid more based on what he has done already, but how much more will depend on how successful he will be playing at center. If he proves he can play C, he will get paid more then we think, if he fails, he will not get as much as he thinks he will get. At least not from the Rangers.

[Phil in Absentia]

I agree on the center bit. I disagree otherwise. Even if nothing else changes, he's getting $5M+ based purely on market value alone.


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[Valriera]

If he proves he can play center next year, then I will second guess what I'm about to say, since those types of versatile guys are valuable, but I don't need to pay J.T. Miller. He's a basket case just like Kreider is. He's been given every possible opportunity to succeed on this team and in my opinion, the best you can say about him is that he's been very good in flashes. That's not good enough for a long term commitment and I'd prefer to sell him for the package of assets he'd command while his value is high then commit to yet another decent forward. We'll see how this year goes. If he has a good year and shows he can play center I will reconsider.

[Vodka Drunkenski]

1 goal in 40 playoff games....1

[Future]

I agree on the center bit. I disagree otherwise. Even if nothing else changes, he's getting $5M+ based purely on market value alone.


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Well I mean if he has 12 goals and 32 points this year, he's not getting that.

[Phil in Absentia]

Well I mean if he has 12 goals and 32 points this year, he's not getting that.

"barring an unlikely collapse in production,"

Look at his progress. 0.15, 0.20, 0.40, 0.52, 0.68 P/GP over each year from 2012-13 to last season in the NHL.

What part of this makes you think he’s going to suddenly regress?

[Future]

I don't think he will.

But shit happens.

[Phil in Absentia]

Yes, shit happens. It's just unlikely to in this case. Let's also be clear -- you're talking about 32 points over a full season, right? Not in like an injury-shortened one like Zibanejad had?


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[Don't Stepan Matteau]

"barring an unlikely collapse in production,"

Look at his progress. 0.15, 0.20, 0.40, 0.52, 0.68 P/GP over each year from 2012-13 to last season in the NHL.

What part of this makes you think he’s going to suddenly regress?

Which is exactly why I agree with how the front office has handled him so far. Right now he's a fringe top 6 player who definitely has the talent but has been far from consistent against opposing top 6 players in the regular season and has disappeared on the 3rd and 4th lines in the playoffs the last two years.

With how guys are getting paid solely for stats and not as much the role they play on a team, he will get 5-6 mil from someone, but since the Rangers don't already have a consistent star forward who can elevate his type of game it's not affordable to sign 4-5 guys like Miller (especially on the wing) long term to make up for that even if it was at 4-5 mil range that we could have signed him at two years ago .

Miller will have a chance to be a top 6 center along with Hayes this season and he will either sink or swim in that role. If he proves he can be a top 6 center with the same or greater production as last season
he's worth the 5.5-7 mil he'll get anyway. If he has a better year at wing he gets the 5-6 mil and replaces Nash in the top 6 or he's a bigger piece to dangle in a trade.

[Phil in Absentia]

He's not fringe anymore. Last season's production proved that. Fringe top-six players tend to post around 40 points and flirt with 20 goals.

[Valriera]

DSM's point though was that despite the regular season numbers indicating that he should be a top 6 forward, he has performed absolutely horrendously in a sizable helping of playoff games, and generally disappears throughout the tough postseason games. We've flirted with another guy who gets a lot of heat for his playoff performance: Rick Nash. Do we want another Rick Nash? I certainly don't want another one, I certainly don't want to be tied to another one for multiple years, and I certainly don't want to pay another one money to perform when it's convenient for them.

JT has 1 goal in 40 playoff games. When it matters most he's not been good enough, and that's what I care about.

[Phil in Absentia]

That's fair.


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[Long live the King]

I think the 1 goal in 40 playoff games gets over blown.

He had 2 assists in 4 games getting less than 10 min as a 20 y.o.
He had 1 goal and 7 assists in 19 games getting about 14 and a half minutes as a 21 y.o.
3 assists in 5 games in 2 years ago.

That's 15 points in 28 games, pretty darn good production for a young kid.

If you want to get on him about last year that's fair, but calling all 40 playoff games a failure is not.

[The Dude]

I dangle him with DeAngelo and try to get a top line center. Duchene. This team is good on the wing but has nothing at center.

Obviously I'd rather deal Hayes over Miller, but I don't think Hayes has as much value as Miller. Or am I wrong on that? Which would BSBH rather have? In the end I think it comes down to one or the other.