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Thread: Forecasting Zibanjad's Next Contract

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    Forecasting Zibanjad's Next Contract

    He effectively signed a bridge contract with the Senators coming out of his ELC back in 2015 with an escalating salary that saw him earn $2M in year one and $3.25M in year two. He turned 24 in April and has two years remaining of RFA eligibility before UFA. Should the Rangers buy more than two years of contract service, they’ll be purchasing UFA-eligible years, which means they come at UFA prices.

    Below are his box car stats over the last four seasons. I’ve bolded an important aspect of them.



    With his P/GP pace gradually improving year-over-year, combined with being arbitration eligible and only two years of RFA left, it sure seems the Rangers have no other choice but to sign him long-term, despite the injury-derailed season he had.

    With all this accounted for, my guess is they’ll look at similar contracts signed by comparable players at the same age. Derek Stepan, Logan Couture, Tyler Ennis, Brayden Schenn, and perhaps Nazem Kadri all spring to mind. All of whom, minus Kadri, signed their extensions at the same career point and at the same age of 24.



    All five players compare favorably in terms of P/GP average over the last four seasons, with Ellis an outlier on the less productive side, which tells me the average AAV between them—$5.345M—is a very healthy estimate for where Zibanejad’s AAV will land. If we want to round it to an easy number, let’s just call it $5.3M and call it a day.

    It’s then a matter of years. My guess is they’ll go no fewer than five, but no greater than six. This would take Zibanejad from the age of 24 to either the age of 29 or 30 while buying all of his prime years. He’ll get a second kick at UFA at either age and probably sign a second and final multi-year contract, but the Rangers will likely own his rights for his most productive NHL years.
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    Good points. I didn't realize he was a 50-pointer last season. The injury this year really sucked.
    I think your numbers are probably spot-on, but I wonder if he could be had a little cheaper because of the injury.
    4.9m/5-6y
    5.1m/4-5y
    Out: Girardi, Klein, Stepan, Raanta
    In: Shattenkirk, Desharnais, Pavalec, DeAngelo/Bereglazalov/Pionk

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    WTH is a box car stat?

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    I would be fine with a deal like Kadri has.

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    Quote Originally Posted by NYR2711 View Post
    I would be fine with a deal like Kadri has.
    I think we'd be lucky to get him at this kind of deal, but yes!
    Out: Girardi, Klein, Stepan, Raanta
    In: Shattenkirk, Desharnais, Pavalec, DeAngelo/Bereglazalov/Pionk

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    Quote Originally Posted by booze and wingz View Post
    I think we'd be lucky to get him at this kind of deal, but yes!
    Why would we be lucky? Their P/GP are very similar.

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    Quote Originally Posted by NYR2711 View Post
    Why would we be lucky? Their P/GP are very similar.
    I thought Kadri underperformed (haven't looked at a stat sheet) and signed a good deal for the Leafs and is now outperforming his contract. Am I wrong?
    Out: Girardi, Klein, Stepan, Raanta
    In: Shattenkirk, Desharnais, Pavalec, DeAngelo/Bereglazalov/Pionk

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    Quote Originally Posted by Phil in Absentia View Post
    He effectively signed a bridge contract with the Senators coming out of his ELC back in 2015 with an escalating salary that saw him earn $2M in year one and $3.25M in year two. He turned 24 in April and has two years remaining of RFA eligibility before UFA. Should the Rangers buy more than two years of contract service, they’ll be purchasing UFA-eligible years, which means they come at UFA prices.

    Below are his box car stats over the last four seasons. I’ve bolded an important aspect of them.

    YEAR TEAM LEAGUE GP G A PTS +/- PIM PPG SHG GWG TOI S PTSPG
    2016-17 NY Rangers NHL 56 14 23 37 9 16 4 0 2 17:04 119 0.66
    2015-16 Ottawa NHL 81 21 30 51 -2 18 2 2 7 17:45 184 0.63
    2014-15 Ottawa NHL 80 20 26 46 0 20 4 0 0 16:26 150 0.58
    2013-14 Ottawa NHL 69 16 17 33 -15 18 3 0 0 14:19 153 0.48

    With his P/GP pace gradually improving year-over-year, combined with being arbitration eligible and only two years of RFA left, it sure seems the Rangers have no other choice but to sign him long-term, despite the injury-derailed season he had.

    With all this accounted for, my guess is they’ll look at similar contracts signed by comparable players at the same age. Derek Stepan, Logan Couture, Tyler Ennis, Brayden Schenn, and perhaps Nazem Kadri all spring to mind. All of whom, minus Kadri, signed their extensions at the same career point and at the same age of 24.

    PLAYER AGE LENGTH AAV P/GP AVG LAST FOUR
    Derek Stepan 24 6 $6.5M 0.73
    Logan Couture 24 5 $6M 0.76
    Tyler Ennis 24 5 $4.6M 0.47
    Brayden Schenn 24 4 $5.125M 0.61
    Nazem Kadri 25 6 $4.5M 0.63

    All five players compare favorably in terms of P/GP average over the last four seasons, with Ellis an outlier on the less productive side, which tells me the average AAV between them—$5.345M—is a very healthy estimate for where Zibanejad’s AAV will land. If we want to round it to an easy number, let’s just call it $5.3M and call it a day.

    It’s then a matter of years. My guess is they’ll go no fewer than five, but no greater than six. This would take Zibanejad from the age of 24 to either the age of 29 or 30 while buying all of his prime years. He’ll get a second kick at UFA at either age and probably sign a second and final multi-year contract, but the Rangers will likely own his rights for his most productive NHL years.
    Great post.

    I'm torn on Zib. On one hand, I don't think he's a top center in this league. I actually think Stepan is a great comparison for him as far as overall impact goes. I haven't seen much game breaking ability from him this year, but what I have seen is fairly consistent overall offensive play. I think with some more development his defensive game will evolve too and he will be a decent two way centerman, but I don't see much more than that. We've seen what tying our horse to Stepan does to our team, which is handicap any ability to upgrade in that position since his play is below market value for his contract, and I'm not sure I'm in the market for that. I would probably just bridge him to UFA and if he turns into a quality player then I don't mind paying a little extra.

    On the other hand, Zib has been injury riddled and has definitely shown flashes of offensive brilliance this season, so I think there is upside for him.

    My consensus? Too much risk to sign another player to a long term deal. This is a guy I don't mind signing to UFA and then seeing what happens. If he performs so well that he gets a major contract upgrade at that point, so be it, and if he remains roughly the same player we see today, then I really don't mind letting him go. He's been a good but replaceable part this season provided we don't marry him with money.

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    Quote Originally Posted by booze and wingz View Post
    I thought Kadri underperformed (haven't looked at a stat sheet) and signed a good deal for the Leafs and is now outperforming his contract. Am I wrong?
    He out-performed it this year, but I think the contract was about right. He had 32 goals this year and has never had more than 20 before.

    Kadri's $4.5m number is probably a little bit too low for Zib.

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    I think his injury this season might shave off a little bit of his bargaining power, since it drags his last 4 year production average down to .58 PPG. Seems primed for a $5M X 5 deal, pretty much what Brassard got here. Structure it so that it's Lockout proofed as much as possible using signing bonuses and front loading. He'll be 29 when it expires, young enough for one more pay day.

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    Quote Originally Posted by AmericanJesus View Post
    I think his injury this season might shave off a little bit of his bargaining power, since it drags his last 4 year production average down to .58 PPG. Seems primed for a $5M X 5 deal, pretty much what Brassard got here. Structure it so that it's Lockout proofed as much as possible using signing bonuses and front loading. He'll be 29 when it expires, young enough for one more pay day.
    Agree with this. 5X5. I really liked what I saw from him to start the season. I don't think he was the same after the injury. He certainly wasn't as physical, and didn't shoot as often as he was. I don't know if that's the coaching staff reeling him in and changing his style, or if it was the injury. Seems most everyone new starts off really good and exciting as a Ranger. Then they tail off and become vanilla Stepan like players who play a perimeter game and are indecisive with the puck.... Must be the players.

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    Ottawa dealt Zibenajad because they knew he would command more than 5 mil. per.


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    ...for Brassard who makes $5M per.
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    Zibs new single is on fire

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    Quote Originally Posted by Phil in Absentia View Post
    ...for Brassard who makes $5M per.
    Well they might have been betting on him asking for something like $6.5m and 6 years.

    Had he not gotten hurt, that might not be that far off. He paced 54 points as it was, and was on a tear before he got injured so 60+ points isn't all that unrealistic. For a guy who is 23, gives you 60 points and plays in all situations, $6.5m isn't off by much.

    I don't think OTT traded him for cap savings, explicitly, but the economics of it might have had some say.

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    Senior Member Mite Division Mr.wiskers's Avatar
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    Exactly--Ottawa felt Zibenajad would ask and possibly get more than 5 mil. per. which would have priced him out of Ottawas self imposed cap So they dealt him for Brassard who had a fixed 5 mil per. contract for the next 3 yrs.


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