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Thread: 2016 Presidential Election: General Discussion

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    2016 Presidential Election: General Discussion

    Thoughts on the results out of Iowa?

    For those who didn't know.

    Cruz won the Republicans vote with 28%, Trump was second with 24%, and Rubio was third with 23%.

    Hilary won with 49.9% of the vote and Sanders was second with 49.6%. Hilary says she won, Bernie said it is a "tie".

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    It's a huge win for Bernie... But let's be real... This Iowa caucus is really no indicator of anything. The last 2 Republican winners crashed and burned famously.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Morphinity View Post
    Thoughts on the results out of Iowa?

    For those who didn't know.

    Cruz won the Republicans vote with 28%, Trump was second with 24%, and Rubio was third with 23%.

    Hilary won with 49.9% of the vote and Sanders was second with 49.6%. Hilary says she won, Bernie said it is a "tie".
    Quote Originally Posted by Pete View Post
    It's a huge win for Bernie... But let's be real... This Iowa caucus is really no indicator of anything. The last 2 Republican winners crashed and burned famously.
    These two things.

    Cruz defeating Trump is big in the "who will go down in flames first" category only. Both will eventually go down in flames. Neither is a John McCain.

    Unfortunately for Sanders supporters, his results here don't mean too much either. It's short term encouraging and what it will do is continue to funnel funds in from small time supporters who won't feel their money is being thrown away. Ultimately he will lose the money game in a land slide, but no one expects otherwise. He needs convincing wins, plain and simple. A close loss is still a loss in that regard. Even close wins won't do much.

    The Primaries don't dictate a winner, especially in the Democratic Party. They're loose guidelines. And with Super-delegates making up such a high portion of the delegates at the Democratic Convention, a grass roots candidate needs overwhelming public support in order to get the nomination over an establishment candidate. In short, Sanders needs to win probably in the 60-40 range to get the nomination. That's a tall order, especially when he'll likely struggle more in the South.

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    Quote Originally Posted by AmericanJesus View Post
    These two things.

    Cruz defeating Trump is big in the "who will go down in flames first" category only. Both will eventually go down in flames. Neither is a John McCain.

    Unfortunately for Sanders supporters, his results here don't mean too much either. It's short term encouraging and what it will do is continue to funnel funds in from small time supporters who won't feel their money is being thrown away. Ultimately he will lose the money game in a land slide, but no one expects otherwise. He needs convincing wins, plain and simple. A close loss is still a loss in that regard. Even close wins won't do much.

    The Primaries don't dictate a winner, especially in the Democratic Party. They're loose guidelines. And with Super-delegates making up such a high portion of the delegates at the Democratic Convention, a grass roots candidate needs overwhelming public support in order to get the nomination over an establishment candidate. In short, Sanders needs to win probably in the 60-40 range to get the nomination. That's a tall order, especially when he'll likely struggle more in the South.
    I think a 70 year old of Jewish descent who admits to not follow organized religion and is a registered Independent going toe to toe with Hilary says a lot.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pete View Post
    It's a huge win for Bernie... But let's be real... This Iowa caucus is really no indicator of anything. The last 2 Republican winners crashed and burned famously.
    I think that there are some real indicators that can be taken from this caucus. While it is no surprise that Cruz won a heavily religious state we can infer a lot from the voting, Sanders is the least religious candidate in the entire election so some things can be taken from this. If Sanders is within a half a percent of Clinton in a heavily religious state it means he can only do better in the next caucus.


    Trump being within 4% of Cruz in Iowa is a big problem for him. This is probably one of the few states where Cruz has a lot of support, a marginal win for him in this state is an omen for the future.


    I think Sanders and Trump win NH. Clinton will still be very close but Cruz will drop considerably and Rubio will take over the #2 spot.
    ___________LETS GO RANGERS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pete View Post
    I think a 70 year old of Jewish descent who admits to not follow organized religion and is a registered Independent going toe to toe with Hilary says a lot.
    It only says a lot as far as novelty. In regards to winning the nomination, it's a foot note. Sanders needs significant wins in the North and then some surprise close wins or even close losses in the South. Sanders very likely wins New Hampshire. If he can close the gap in Nevada significantly and then get within 10% in South Carolina, then that'll be something to talk about.

    Right now though he's polling back around 20% in Nevada and 30% in South Carolina.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mentosman42 View Post
    I think that there are some real indicators that can be taken from this caucus. While it is no surprise that Cruz won a heavily religious state we can infer a lot from the voting, Sanders is the least religious candidate in the entire election so some things can be taken from this. If Sanders is within a half a percent of Clinton in a heavily religious state it means he can only do better in the next caucus.


    Trump being within 4% of Cruz in Iowa is a big problem for him. This is probably one of the few states where Cruz has a lot of support, a marginal win for him in this state is an omen for the future.


    I think Sanders and Trump win NH. Clinton will still be very close but Cruz will drop considerably and Rubio will take over the #2 spot.
    RCP Average had Trump up 4.6% over the week heading into Iowa. That's an 8% swing compared to the actual result. To me, that shows more that a good percentage of people are willing to say one thing on the phone to a pollster and do something else when it comes time to act.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pete View Post
    I think a 70 year old of Jewish descent who admits to not follow organized religion and is a registered Independent going toe to toe with Hilary says a lot.
    Yea, that Hilary sucks balls.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Future View Post
    Yea, that Hilary sucks balls.
    Would've saved Bill a lot of grief around 20 years ago if she did

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    You know Trump vs. Sanders won't happen.


    It's going to be Rubio vs. Clinton. Status Quo is very important to the elites.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Morphinity View Post
    Thoughts on the results out of Iowa?

    For those who didn't know.

    Cruz won the Republicans vote with 28%, Trump was second with 24%, and Rubio was third with 23%.

    Hilary won with 49.9% of the vote and Sanders was second with 49.6%. Hilary says she won, Bernie said it is a "tie".
    Its kind of a joke considering that the only reason Hilary won was because she won 5 or 6 coin tosses to declare her the winner. Thats a fucking joke, along with the rest of the Presidential Election process.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dunny View Post
    You know Trump vs. Sanders won't happen.


    It's going to be Rubio vs. Clinton. Status Quo is very important to the elites.


    Yea damn those elites for backing the only two candidates that have any chance of having an effective presidency.
    ___________LETS GO RANGERS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dunny View Post
    You know Trump vs. Sanders won't happen.


    It's going to be Rubio vs. Clinton. Status Quo is very important to the elites.
    Right. And that's why none of this Sanders and Trump stuff actually matters. It's nice that people with a strong, dissenting voice have had their share of the spotlight, but it's not going to actually lead to anything meaningful.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mentosman42 View Post
    Yea damn those elites for backing the only two candidates that have any chance of having an effective presidency.
    Effective for whom?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Morphinity View Post
    Right. And that's why none of this Sanders and Trump stuff actually matters. It's nice that people with a strong, dissenting voice have had their share of the spotlight, but it's not going to actually lead to anything meaningful.
    I think I agree. I hope for both to stay relevant the whole way, but we'll see.

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    Quote Originally Posted by AmericanJesus View Post
    RCP Average had Trump up 4.6% over the week heading into Iowa. That's an 8% swing compared to the actual result. To me, that shows more that a good percentage of people are willing to say one thing on the phone to a pollster and do something else when it comes time to act.
    I agree that there is a percentage of people who said they would vote for Trump that didnt when the time came but I have to attribute a lot of the swing to the fact that there is a 5%+ margin of error with these polls.


    The point I was making was, Iowa is one of Cruz's best states and one of Donalds worst and if Donald is still in striking distance of Cruz in the latter's best state that doesnt speak well for Cruz.
    ___________LETS GO RANGERS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mentosman42 View Post
    Yea damn those elites for backing the only two candidates that have any chance of having an effective presidency.
    One of the critiques of Sanders, and I tend to agree with it, is that he really wouldn't have been effective. A lot of it is idealistic, which is nice, but putting much of it into practice would require the backing of Congress, and it's unlikely that he'd get support there.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dunny View Post
    Effective for whom?
    Effective as in being able to do anything. I dont mean effective in that they will be good presidents but Sanders and Trump have no chance at being able guide the nation at all. As Ive said before, a Sanders presidency would make Obama think he had it easy and Trump/Cruz are hated by their peers.
    ___________LETS GO RANGERS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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    Quote Originally Posted by NYR2711 View Post
    Its kind of a joke considering that the only reason Hilary won was because she won 5 or 6 coin tosses to declare her the winner. Thats a fucking joke, along with the rest of the Presidential Election process.
    This is not factually accurate. These were precinct level delegates, not state level. So their impact on the result of the Caucus was tiny. News headlines verses actual reporting and social media have blown up what is a very minor procedural event that happens frequently.

    http://www.desmoinesregister.com/sto...flip/79680342/

    Similar situations played out at various precincts across the state, but had an extremely small effect on the overall outcome, in which Clinton won 49.9 percent of statewide delegate equivalents, while Sanders won 49.5 percent. The delegates that were decided by coin flips were delegates to the party's county conventions, of which there are thousands selected across the state from 1,681 separate precincts. They were not the statewide delegate equivalents that are reported in the final results.

    The statewide delegate equivalents that determine the outcome on caucus night are derived from the county-level delegates, but are aggregated across the state and weighted in a manner that makes individual county delegate selections at a handful of precincts count for a tiny fraction of the ultimate result.

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    Quote Originally Posted by AmericanJesus View Post
    This is not factually accurate. These were precinct level delegates, not state level. So their impact on the result of the Caucus was tiny. News headlines verses actual reporting and social media have blown up what is a very minor procedural event that happens frequently.

    http://www.desmoinesregister.com/sto...flip/79680342/


    Stop posting facts and reality, your making my rage subside!


    I love this stuff though, Breitbart for example is already running an article setting up the conspiracy theories about the deligates for the inevitable Clinton presidency.




    ___________LETS GO RANGERS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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