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Thread: Is Dan Girardi One of the Most Overrated Players in the NHL?

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    Is Dan Girardi One of the Most Overrated Players in the NHL?

    I'm going to stretch the rules and post the entire blog post because I'd rather not link to Rotter's site. This was the entire post, except Rotter's take, because I don't give a shit what he thinks.

    In the 2015 lists issue of The Hockey News, Dan Girardi is listed as the fourth most overrated player in the league.

    They write, “if blocking shots were enough for a player to be considered a star, Girardi would qualify. That’s not the case, yet you’ll still see Rangers fans going to bat for the 31-year old. One problem is he’s the victim of a contract that misrepresents his value, he’s making the money of a star blue liner when he’s just a good workhorse defenseman and not much else.”

    Girardi is in the second-year of a six-year deal with a cap hit of $5.5 million.


    In October 2014, Fluto Shinzawa listed Girardi among eight players who are “overpaid within the context of their rosters and job descriptions” but noted that every team is carrying “inflated salary.”(Boston Globe)

    He adds that when Girardi is “on” he is a “good shutdown defenseman” and that in general, “it’s better to have the player at a higher price than to hose him to a competitor.” (Boston Globe)

    When Girardi signed his extension, Glen Sather said “His dedication to this club, as a leader both on the ice and in the locker room, is invaluable to this team. We are happy to have been able to ensure that he will continue to wear the Blueshirt.”
    ##

    These types of comments startled percolating last year, especially as it relates to the advanced stats argument of G holding McD back. Now that members of the MSM are picking it up and exploring it, I don't think we can sit back here and keep saying that it's just Rangers' fans who are never happy and looking for a scape goat.

    That contract is a dog now, and it'll be a bigger dog later.

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    If we move Girardi, who's taking his ice time? Diaz? McIlrath? There isn't anyone in the system that's a RHD with top-4 potential that would be ready to take over once Girardi's NMC turned into a modified-NTC. We could find a cheaper alternative, but how much worse of a performance are we going to get? Unless a replacement becomes apparent, we're going to hold onto G IMO.

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    The silver lining, possibly, is that he's got two more years with a full no-move clause that then changes over to a modified no-trade. But that's two full seasons (this coming year included) away. Quite far. Really, a world away in a capped era.

    The line from THN nailed it for me — "he's the victim of a contract that misrepresents his value". It's not that Dan Girardi has no value. He does (so let's not go with the Rotter-take of crying victim about how this is all about "bashing" the player, or somehow insinuates he sucks). But as with all NHL players, there's a limit to that value with respect to the salary cap, and Girardi on his best day flirts dangerously with the line between value and overpayment. He simply doesn't really register the numbers you'd want to see (traditionally or analytically) that make a $5.5M AAV easy to swallow. And believe me, I know better than most how the UFA market works, so you won't see me comparing him to Ryan McDonagh. The guys I compared him to the entire time leading up to his extension (while the Rangers contemplated and ultimately rejected trading him) were Matt Carle, Jay Bouwmeester and Dennis Wideman. Among them only Carle's contract is worse (much worse).

    He has tremendous value to the room and to the team as well. That can't really be stated enough. He's clearly a well respected, looked-to guy in the room, and there's also value in that. But all these attributes — leadership, production, analytics, etc. — have ceilings and floors to which they operate within. For my money, this ones just a little too steep. He's the East Coast version of Dan Hamhuis, and I wish he were paid like Hamhuis is ($4.5M AAV).
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cash or Czech? View Post
    If we move Girardi, who's taking his ice time? Diaz? McIlrath? There isn't anyone in the system that's a RHD with top-4 potential that would be ready to take over once Girardi's NMC turned into a modified-NTC. We could find a cheaper alternative, but how much worse of a performance are we going to get? Unless a replacement becomes apparent, we're going to hold onto G IMO.
    Of course, but that assumes that if the Rangers deal him they don't pull back a stop-gap until an internal solution can be found.
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    I like Girardi. He represents everything a hockey player should be on, and off the ice. I think he'd be classified as "you don't realize what you have until it's gone". Is he perfect? No, but no one is. We can legitimately debate 50% of the contracts given out league wide, let alone just the Ranger roster. Is he overpaid for what his performance is on the ice? Probably, but as Sather said, his leadership is invaluable. There are certain things you can't hang a tag on, and he happens to carry several of those traits. Therefore, it makes his contract look bloated. I'm not saying he's entirely worth that contract, but I don't believe he's as overrated as some make him out to be.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rome 2.0 View Post
    The silver lining, possibly, is that he's got two more years with a full no-move clause that then changes over to a modified no-trade. But that's two full seasons (this coming year included) away. Quite far. Really, a world away in a capped era.

    The line from THN nailed it for me — "he's the victim of a contract that misrepresents his value". It's not that Dan Girardi has no value. He does (so let's not go with the Rotter-take of crying victim about how this is all about "bashing" the player, or somehow insinuates he sucks). But as with all NHL players, there's a limit to that value with respect to the salary cap, and Girardi on his best day flirts dangerously with the line between value and overpayment. He simply doesn't really register the numbers you'd want to see (traditionally or analytically) that make a $5.5M AAV easy to swallow. And believe me, I know better than most how the UFA market works, so you won't see me comparing him to Ryan McDonagh. The guys I compared him to the entire time leading up to his extension (while the Rangers contemplated and ultimately rejected trading him) were Matt Carle, Jay Bouwmeester and Dennis Wideman. Among them only Carle's contract is worse (much worse).

    He has tremendous value to the room and to the team as well. That can't really be stated enough. He's clearly a well respected, looked-to guy in the room, and there's also value in that. But all these attributes — leadership, production, analytics, etc. — have ceilings and floors to which they operate within. For my money, this ones just a little too steep. He's the East Coast version of Dan Hamhuis, and I wish he were paid like Hamhuis is ($4.5M AAV).
    I think the problem is that, as I said when we debated his contract, you simply don't need to pay a guy $5.5 to play with McD, and not be able to play anywhere else in your lineup because he's just not able to shoulder the load of playing with someone who's not a McD or a Staal, who are superior defenders.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mikey37 View Post
    I like Girardi. He represents everything a hockey player should be on, and off the ice. I think he'd be classified as "you don't realize what you have until it's gone". Is he perfect? No, but no one is. We can legitimately debate 50% of the contracts given out league wide, let alone just the Ranger roster. Is he overpaid for what his performance is on the ice? Probably, but as Sather said, his leadership is invaluable. There are certain things you can't hang a tag on, and he happens to carry several of those traits. Therefore, it makes his contract look bloated. I'm not saying he's entirely worth that contract, but I don't believe he's as overrated as some make him out to be.
    This is kind of the same argument Rotter makes. It's a fallacy of relative privation argument. That's fancy-speak for "well, so and so is worse, so it's not so bad". It acts as a type of pressure release valve in arguments like this because, yes, there are worse deals, but those deals being worse doesn't justify Girardi's as good. Girardi's can still be bad, just to a lesser degree. To me, he's overpaid by about $1M when you account for what he actually gives you both statistically and analytically. At a number actually closer to McDonagh's (even though they don't compare — RFA to UFA), I actually don't think you'd see as big a stink made about his deal.

    But this will undoubtedly also lead to the conversation we had a week ago or so that dragged Staal in, because the real crux of the issue here isn't specifically that the Rangers overpaid a UFA (as all/most are overpaid by some degree). It's that they did it twice, for the same player. That's what really kills their cap.

    They paid two minute-eating soldiers who really don't aid the offense any (if at all) like numbers-producers, at the UFA rates. The Staal/Girardi deals here are like owning a huge gas-guzzling pick-up truck when you live in the suburbs. Yeah, it can do all these incredible towing/torque-related things, none of which you'll ever really have a need for, and your comfortable with it, so much so you bought one for your wife too. At the same sticker price you bought the first one. When all you really needed was a Toyota Camry.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mikey37 View Post
    I like Girardi. He represents everything a hockey player should be on, and off the ice. I think he'd be classified as "you don't realize what you have until it's gone". Is he perfect? No, but no one is. We can legitimately debate 50% of the contracts given out league wide, let alone just the Ranger roster. Is he overpaid for what his performance is on the ice? Probably, but as Sather said, his leadership is invaluable. There are certain things you can't hang a tag on, and he happens to carry several of those traits. Therefore, it makes his contract look bloated. I'm not saying he's entirely worth that contract, but I don't believe he's as overrated as some make him out to be.
    My exact thoughts. We kind of talked about this in the arbitration thread but there's a lot more to signing a player than stats. Is 5.5 a lot of money? Yes. But I could probably strike up an argument against every player on the team earning too much money. When he's no longer effective, he can be moved. Until then, he's a massive part of arguably the best D in the league.
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    Is Dan Girardi One of the Most Overrated Players in the NHL?

    I have the mag at home. This was from the lists issues and it was more of a blurb than anything else. I think he was 4/5.

    This is the same magazine that also said they would take Tyler Johnson this high if the league were redrafted.
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    Quote Originally Posted by CreaseCrusader91 View Post
    I have the mag at home. This was from the lists issues and it was more of a blurb than anything else. I think he was 4/5.

    This is the same magazine that also said they would take Tyler Johnson this high if the league were redrafted.
      Spoiler: {option} 
    That doesn't mean anything. Who penned the column you are talking about? Same author as the one who penned the one naming Giradi overrated? If not, this is an illusionary correlation.

    Assuming they were different writers, what one writer writes in Column A doesn't make what another writer writes in Column B right or wrong.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rome 2.0 View Post
    This is kind of the same argument Rotter makes. It's a fallacy of relative privation argument. That's fancy-speak for "well, so and so is worse, so it's not so bad". It acts as a type of pressure release valve in arguments like this because, yes, there are worse deals, but those deals being worse doesn't justify Girardi's as good. Girardi's can still be bad, just to a lesser degree. To me, he's overpaid by about $1M when you account for what he actually gives you both statistically and analytically. At a number actually closer to McDonagh's (even though they don't compare — RFA to UFA), I actually don't think you'd see as big a stink made about his deal.

    But this will undoubtedly also lead to the conversation we had a week ago or so that dragged Staal in, because the real crux of the issue here isn't specifically that the Rangers overpaid a UFA (as all/most are overpaid by some degree). It's that they did it twice, for the same player. That's what really kills their cap.

    They paid two minute-eating soldiers who really don't aid the offense any (if at all) like numbers-producers, at the UFA rates. The Staal/Girardi deals here are like owning a huge gas-guzzling pick-up truck when you live in the suburbs. Yeah, it can do all these incredible towing/torque-related things, none of which you'll ever really have a need for, and your comfortable with it, so much so you bought one for your wife too. At the same sticker price you bought the first one. When all you really needed was a Toyota Camry.
    I'm not trying justify, or defend the deal. I'm simply pointing out that every deal, player, goalie, gm, coach, etc. have their flaws. Yes, this deal does have flaws, I'm not debating that. Sometimes you have to pay a little extra to retain what you know you have versus what you think you might get via trade or FA.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rome 2.0 View Post
    That doesn't mean anything. Who penned the column you are talking about? Same author as the one who penned the one naming Giradi overrated? If not, this is an illusionary correlation.

    Assuming they were different writers, what one writer writes in Column A doesn't make what another writer writes in Column B right or wrong.
    Poor word choice on my part. I was just trying to point out it was also in this same issue that they released the list I posted.

    They do a lists issue every year and I was going to open a thread and forgot. When I saw this I remembered and just thought it was interesting, and not worth opening an additional thread.

    Wasn't trying to compare the two.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rome 2.0 View Post
    This is kind of the same argument Rotter makes. It's a fallacy of relative privation argument. That's fancy-speak for "well, so and so is worse, so it's not so bad". It acts as a type of pressure release valve in arguments like this because, yes, there are worse deals, but those deals being worse doesn't justify Girardi's as good. Girardi's can still be bad, just to a lesser degree. To me, he's overpaid by about $1M when you account for what he actually gives you both statistically and analytically. At a number actually closer to McDonagh's (even though they don't compare — RFA to UFA), I actually don't think you'd see as big a stink made about his deal.

    But this will undoubtedly also lead to the conversation we had a week ago or so that dragged Staal in, because the real crux of the issue here isn't specifically that the Rangers overpaid a UFA (as all/most are overpaid by some degree). It's that they did it twice, for the same player. That's what really kills their cap.

    They paid two minute-eating soldiers who really don't aid the offense any (if at all) like numbers-producers, at the UFA rates. The Staal/Girardi deals here are like owning a huge gas-guzzling pick-up truck when you live in the suburbs. Yeah, it can do all these incredible towing/torque-related things, none of which you'll ever really have a need for, and your comfortable with it, so much so you bought one for your wife too. At the same sticker price you bought the first one. When all you really needed was a Toyota Camry.
    I never really understood this argument. How many types of players are there? Am I to assume there are 6 different kinds of dmen and each team should have one of each with their own specific salary? How many teams have that?

    Yes, the origional argument is a fallacy of sorts but you must pay for effective dmen. That's how the NHL and sports in general works. Is he a similar player to Staal? Yes. But what's the problem with that? We had the best goal differential in the league last year which was one of the factors of us being the best all around team in the league so clearly something is working.

    I get that everyone wants to improve the team all the time but I think the other 29 teams would take Girardi for that price right now if they could.
    Last edited by ThirtyONE; 07-29-2015 at 01:22 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rome 2.0 View Post
    That doesn't mean anything. Who penned the column you are talking about? Same author as the one who penned the one naming Giradi overrated? If not, this is an illusionary correlation.

    Assuming they were different writers, what one writer writes in Column A doesn't make what another writer writes in Column B right or wrong.
    And Tyler Johnson has as many points as Stamkos this year. Given his age, why wouldn't you draft him that high?

    EDIT: Don't want to make this a TJ thread, so let's not go there, just trying to say there's no reason to discredit the author.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mikey37 View Post
    I'm not trying justify, or defend the deal. I'm simply pointing out that every deal, player, goalie, gm, coach, etc. have their flaws. Yes, this deal does have flaws, I'm not debating that. Sometimes you have to pay a little extra to retain what you know you have versus what you think you might get via trade or FA.
    Sure, I'd agree with that. I think they did that with both G and Staal. I just don't think they needed to, or should have, specifically because of the consequences doing so is almost certainly going to have on retaining players due significant raises going forward.
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    Quote Originally Posted by ThirtyONE View Post
    I never really understood this argument. How many types of players are there? Am I to assume there are 6 different kinds of dmen and each team should have one of each with their own specific salary? How many teams have that?

    Yes, the origional argument is a fallacy of sorts but you must pay for effective dmen. That's how the NHL and sports in general works. Is he a similar player to Staal? Yes. But what's the problem with that? We had the best goal differential in the league last year which was one of the factors of us being the best all around team in the league so clearly something is working.

    I get that everyone wants to improve the team all the time but I think the other 29 teams would take Girardi for that price right now if they could.
    Oh I don't. Not at all.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pete View Post
    Oh I don't. Not at all.
    I'd love to see a list of top pair dmen and their salaries to compare. I wish capgeek was still around.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rome 2.0 View Post
    Sure, I'd agree with that. I think they did that with both G and Staal. I just don't think they needed to, or should have, specifically because of the consequences doing so is almost certainly going to have on retaining players due significant raises going forward.
    Right, then you have 15 teams complaining they have no defense because money was spent on overpaid forwards. Can't have it all.
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    Quote Originally Posted by ThirtyONE View Post
    I'd love to see a list of top pair dmen and their salaries to compare. I wish capgeek was still around.
    Is Girardi a top pair D-man on 29 other teams? I'd argue he's not. And as I said, you can't pay a guy that much money when he's being carried. And the AS say the McD is carrying him, and that McD is suffering for it.

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    I'd love Girardi for $1M less than he currently makes and unfortunately in a salary cap world that is a factor in discussing a player's ability and effectiveness. One of his greatest attributes is his adamantiu...ability to stay healthy. He's missed 5 games in the last 8 full seasons since becoming a full-time NHLer. Not that it's a representation of his ability, but you're much more inclined to keep players if they can play a full 82 (versus Callahan, etc).

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