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Thread: NHL Free Agent Deals with Lockout Protection an Ominous Trend

  1. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlairBettsBlocksEverything View Post
    Or insurance against a possible work stoppage?

    semantics really. I'm not going to start proclaiming a lockout is on the way just because some players signed contracts that protect their salary if it happens. Not this far out at least.

    If someone signs this type of deal with a 2 year contract the year before the CBA opt out can be triggered, than that might be notable, but still not a true sign that a lockout is happening. But this is so far down the line there's really no way to say this is a sign of an imminent lockout.
    Agreed.

    It's like insurance against your house burning down. Just because you get the insurance, it doesn't mean there's a fire coming. Of course a work stoppage is possible, but contracts being signed 5 years out aren't really indicative of anything.

  2. #22
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    The players are clearly concerned due to the fact that the last 2 times the cba expired there was a significant work stoppage. I mean that's the indicator that a work stoppage is likely. History + current events is usually a pretty good clue.

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    which is why they are "buying" this "insurance" this time around.

    They haven't started any negotiations for a new CBA and won't for a few years at least. Take these deals for what they are, agents negotiating deals to protect their players and themselves against a worst case scenario
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  4. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlairBettsBlocksEverything View Post
    which is why they are "buying" this "insurance" this time around.

    They haven't started any negotiations for a new CBA and won't for a few years at least. Take these deals for what they are, agents negotiating deals to protect their players and themselves against a worst case scenario
    Sorry but I just don't agree. I don't think there is any doubt in the players minds that they're getting locked out.

  5. #25
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    I disagree Pete. I carry full insurance on my car and insurance on my apartment. I also have accident insurance on myself. I don't plan on getting into any car wrecks, having my house burn down or breaking my leg anytime soon. But I realize that they are possible, so I want to protect myself against them.

    Being a player in the NHL, you'd have to hope for the best with the new CBA when the time comes, but if you COULD insure yourself against it, you'd be a fool not to. I don't think it means there's any writing on the wall.

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    The law mandates car insurance.

    Regardless, this has nothing to do with insurance. I believe the players expect to be locked out because history has shown that to be the case.

    That's my opinion. No one has to agree lol.

  7. #27
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    I think we're all getting a little hung up on the term "insurance".

    At the end of the day, the players who are signing deals that take them either to the end of or past the 2019-20 NHL season (the first season that allows either party to opt out of the agreement) seem to be anticipating the potential for a lock-out by incentivizing their contracts to award them large bonses and other contract structures that provide them financial security in a season that could be lost.
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  8. #28
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    They understand that a stoppage is a possibility. They are protecting themselves against that possibility. They are signing clever contracts.

    I don't think I've ever said there won't be a strike, just that this isn't a real indication of it, when we are SO far out.
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  9. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlairBettsBlocksEverything View Post
    They understand that a stoppage is a possibility. They are protecting themselves against that possibility. They are signing clever contracts.

    I don't think I've ever said there won't be a strike, just that this isn't a real indication of it, when we are SO far out.
    But the original comment never indicated that there would hands down, definitely be a stoppage. Just that the players were concerned about it.

    Quote Originally Posted by Pete View Post
    It really just goes to show you that the players already see a work stoppage looming.
    "Looming" isn't "this will definitely happen". It's just the threat of one.

  10. #30
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    Of course we don't know for a fact that there will or will not be another strike/lockout. But considering this league has gone through three of them, there's no real reason not to assume that it's somewhat likely they'll go through a fourth. Hence why the players are signing these types of deals — in anticipation of that likelihood.
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  11. #31
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    my only real point is that these contracts are not a signal that there is a lockout approaching us. i think its way too early to even suspect that. They players have no idea whats happening yet because there has been no talks about negotiating a new CBA.

    All this reflects is that when the deal expires, these players have deals that protect themselves against a lockout. Yes, they have seen what happens when there is a stoppage and the money stops coming in. They negotiated contracts that protect against this possibility. Doesn't mean we should start even thinking that a lockout is approaching
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  12. #32
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    No, they're a signal that a lockout is potentially approaching us, and as history has shown us four times now (three under Gary Bettman's thumb as Commissioner of the League), it's probable to fear a fifth will occur as early as 2020.
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    But there's been no indication that anything like that is happening, mostly because there has been 0 discussion about negotiating the new deal. it's 5 years away people. Let's not get ahead of ourselves. Players negotiating deals to protect themselves in the event of a lockout is not an indication that we are heading towards one, just that players have learned from last time and are preparing just in case.
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  14. #34
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    Hence the italicization of potential.

    You're also misunderstanding my point. I never said these deals are an indication we are headed to another lockout. I said that history has shown us four times, especially the last three times, that it's probable to fear a fifth lockout will occur as early as 2020. This is based simply on the history of neither side actually negotiating in good faith before the agreements expire. They never have before, so there's little reason to assume they will this time around, which is why the fear of a fifth is probable, even if it never actually happens.
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  15. #35
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    So we are essentially saying almost the same thing. Only difference is the word 'probable.'

    I just don't think its realistic to take these deals as any sign of a lockout when we are this far out. As I've said in another post, if this was signed much closer to a potential lockout, than it'd be a more pertinent discussion. But for now, 5 years before of an opt-out clause and 7 years before the deal actually expires, it's unrealistic to take this as a sign that we are heading in that direction. Just that players are signing deals that protect themselves against it. If anything, the more these deals get made, the less likely we would have an owner-triggered opt-out, as they'd have to spend millions on salaries for players that aren't playing.
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  16. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlairBettsBlocksEverything View Post
    So we are essentially saying almost the same thing. Only difference is the word 'probable.'

    I just don't think its realistic to take these deals as any sign of a lockout when we are this far out. As I've said in another post, if this was signed much closer to a potential lockout, than it'd be a more pertinent discussion. But for now, 5 years before of an opt-out clause and 7 years before the deal actually expires, it's unrealistic to take this as a sign that we are heading in that direction. Just that players are signing deals that protect themselves against it. If anything, the more these deals get made, the less likely we would have an owner-triggered opt-out, as they'd have to spend millions on salaries for players that aren't playing.
    But again, no one said these deals were the sign of a lockout.

    I said the deals were a sign the players are concerned about a lockout.

    If you're reading the tea leaves, and you're a hockey fan, then 2 lockouts + players signing protected deals = Pretty significant clues about where both parties stand, don't you think?

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    well there's the crux of the disagreement and neither of us have anything aside from our gut feelings to base it on

    I don't think this is a sign of where anyone stands. It's just players looking for assurances. If anything, the fact that teams are willing to do these deals, committing themselves to spending millions in years where revenue isn't guaranteed, would reflect that they don't forsee it being an issue
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  18. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlairBettsBlocksEverything View Post
    well there's the crux of the disagreement and neither of us have anything aside from our gut feelings to base it on

    I don't think this is a sign of where anyone stands. It's just players looking for assurances. If anything, the fact that teams are willing to do these deals, committing themselves to spending millions in years where revenue isn't guaranteed, would reflect that they don't forsee it being an issue
    Actually, not at all. The teams all signed the deals that brought us to 2 lockouts in the first place. That would indicate they didn't see the deals as an issue...right? But apparently they did, because lockout. Twice.

  19. #39
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    sort of confused on your point here. do you mean the CBA deals? Because I was talking about the player contract. These are new types of contracts that haven't been done before. Teams (I'm assuming owners approved these deals) are allowing players to guarantee themselves millions in years where the owners, in the event of a lockout, wouldn't be making any revenue.

    Unless you meant big contracts in general that resulted in having to negotiate a new CBA when one expired, but at the very least, they weren't committing to spending money without any revenue. The assumption always was to still be playing while they paid out contracts. Maybe there was a lot of over-spending but not committing to spending without revenue
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  20. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlairBettsBlocksEverything View Post
    sort of confused on your point here. do you mean the CBA deals? Because I was talking about the player contract. These are new types of contracts that haven't been done before. Teams (I'm assuming owners approved these deals) are allowing players to guarantee themselves millions in years where the owners, in the event of a lockout, wouldn't be making any revenue.

    Unless you meant big contracts in general that resulted in having to negotiate a new CBA when one expired, but at the very least, they weren't committing to spending money without any revenue. The assumption always was to still be playing while they paid out contracts. Maybe there was a lot of over-spending but not committing to spending without revenue
    Bingo. That's what I meant. Fair enough.

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