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Thread: Rangers' Cap Woes Will Return Next Summer

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    Rangers' Cap Woes Will Return Next Summer

    There are no projections yet what the cap will be for 2016-17.

    But with Chris Kreider, Kevin Hayes and J.T. Miller slated to be restricted free agents, next summer also figures to be a costly one for the Rangers, especially with all three arbitration eligible.
    A likely departure next summer will be defenseman Keith Yandle, who cost Sather a first-round pick and top prospect Anthony Duclair on March 1. Yandle is working on the last season of a five-year, $26.25 million deal with a cap hit of $5.25 million. The Rangers can afford him now because only half of his cap figure counts against the Rangers, the other half is charged to his previous team, the Coyotes.

    Kreider, 24, will complete a two-year, $4.95 million deal and, if he has the kind of season his potential points to, will need a significant bump from his current $2.475 million cap figure. Stepan barely avoided his arbitration hearing Monday morning in Toronto. Kreider is an early favorite to be the first Ranger to go through the process since Nikolay Zherdev.

    Likewise, Hayes, entering the second season of a two-year, $7.5 million deal with the friendly cap hit of $900,000, will need a significant raise if he builds off his strong rookie season. Hayes could well become a top-six forward, either at center – though the top two spots are occupied by Stepan and Derick Brassard [entering the second season of a five-year, $25 million deal] – or on a wing.
    http://www.northjersey.com/sports/ho...ext-summer-1.1

    --

    This isn't anything we haven't touched on already, but even the beat writers are now acknowledging what we already know — the likely squeeze the Rangers are facing next summer. Maybe even worse than the one they experienced this summer.

    Even with a 5% escalator assumed for next season, that pushes the cap up another $3.7M, give or take. Not a lot of room at all when you consider the figures those three specifically—Kreider, Miller and Hayes—might account for alone. The way I've got it projected, assuming all three have impressive seasons, you're looking at $5M per season for Kreider on a long-term deal, and around $3M to $3.5M a piece for Miller and Hayes on shorter-term deals. So all-in-all, let's call it around $12M for all three, who today account for just shy of $3.35M combined.

    Gross made mention of the Hagelin deal, and not for nothing IMO — let's just go ahead and call that foreshadowing, because as things stand, you might be moving out another guy you don't want to as soon as next summer.

    Good luck, Jeff. You're gonna need it.
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    Bring in a luxury tax already. Christ this is dumb.

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    IMO, $3-3.5M a year for Miller and Hayes seems kind of high. Miller has a lot to prove this season, an I don't see him a a $3M player, at least not yet. Hayes possibly, but he it depends on what he does this season. Kreider is going to be expensive, and I can see there being issues with re-signing him.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dunny View Post
    Bring in a luxury tax already. Christ this is dumb.
    That may come off as flip, but it is actually the most solid and fair solution to many issues the teams, markets and players face. Keirik gave an interesting, but elaborate way to keep an extra homegrown talent, but a well thought out luxury tax would actually add real value to the league and players.

    Even if they cap it at 10 mil over with a 15% tax for the first 5 mil and 30% tax on the second 5 mil, everyone wins.

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    Well if you factor Moore and Stalberg coming off the books, as well as Boyle and Yandle, that frees up around 10 million next offseason. Obviously you need to fill out those roster spots. But we will have Skjei on a cap friendly deal to take up a D spot.
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    Quote Originally Posted by NYR2711 View Post
    IMO, $3-3.5M a year for Miller and Hayes seems kind of high. Miller has a lot to prove this season, an I don't see him a a $3M player, at least not yet. Hayes possibly, but he it depends on what he does this season. Kreider is going to be expensive, and I can see there being issues with re-signing him.
    Yes, first we should not expect all 3 of those guys to make the maximum jump this year. Heck Hayes could have a little sophomore slump. Either he or Miller could disappear in the playoffs. Maybe someone gets hurt and misses half the season. If they all do go on to have career years then we will deal with a very nice problem.

    Second, Gross forgets but we don't. At least this year we do not have to debate whether we can get Boyle to waive his NMC or if he can be bought out. So, not only might we subtract Yandle's 2.65, but Boyles 4.5 comes off the books. That should handle the 3 pay raises, it seems.

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    Quote Originally Posted by NYR2711 View Post
    IMO, $3-3.5M a year for Miller and Hayes seems kind of high. Miller has a lot to prove this season, an I don't see him a a $3M player, at least not yet. Hayes possibly, but he it depends on what he does this season. Kreider is going to be expensive, and I can see there being issues with re-signing him.
    Quote Originally Posted by Giacomin View Post
    Yes, first we should not expect all 3 of those guys to make the maximum jump this year. Heck Hayes could have a little sophomore slump. Either he or Miller could disappear in the playoffs. Maybe someone gets hurt and misses half the season. If they all do go on to have career years then we will deal with a very nice problem.

    Second, Gross forgets but we don't. At least this year we do not have to debate whether we can get Boyle to waive his NMC or if he can be bought out. So, not only might we subtract Yandle's 2.65, but Boyles 4.5 comes off the books. That should handle the 3 pay raises, it seems.
    You guys both missed the mark when I said I was assuming/accounting for all three having impressive seasons. Those are all high-end figures for what could be the case. All I'm doing is trying to illustrate how ugly the numbers can get rather quickly.

    It's why I was saying in the Miller thread, when everyone was busy patting Gorton on the back for a job well done, that it actually wasn't well done. He kicked the can down the road by signing him to a QO that now lumps him in with Hayes, Etem and Kreider, all of whom are arbitration eligible, all of whom need new deals, all of whom are going to be given chances to be significant players for the Rangers this year.

    When you account for all of this and assume a type of worst case scenario (contract-wise), it can get pretty ugly pretty quick.

    But let's entertain the idea of Boyle's money going out as well as Yandle's. Fine. You now have two D you need to replace them both with, by the way. So if you give all that money to the forwards, who backfills their roles?
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlairBettsBlocksEverything View Post
    Well if you factor Moore and Stalberg coming off the books, as well as Boyle and Yandle, that frees up around 10 million next offseason. Obviously you need to fill out those roster spots. But we will have Skjei on a cap friendly deal to take up a D spot.
    OK great, that's one role. Who fills the other? Who fills Stålberg and Moore's positions? Also rookies or young players?
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rome 2.0 View Post
    You guys both missed the mark when I said I was assuming/accounting for all three having impressive seasons. Those are all high-end figures for what could be the case. All I'm doing is trying to illustrate how ugly the numbers can get rather quickly.

    It's why I was saying in the Miller thread, when everyone was busy patting Gorton on the back for a job well done, that it actually wasn't well done. He kicked the can down the road by signing him to a QO that now lumps him in with Hayes, Etem and Kreider, all of whom are arbitration eligible, all of whom need new deals, all of whom are going to be given chances to be significant players for the Rangers this year.

    When you account for all of this and assume a type of worst case scenario (contract-wise), it can get pretty ugly pretty quick.

    But let's entertain the idea of Boyle's money going out as well as Yandle's. Fine. You now have two D you need to replace them both with, by the way. So if you give all that money to the forwards, who backfills their roles?
    It was a job well done because he had to operate that way to get Stepan under contract. There was simply no other way to do it, other than the way he did it. To get Etem and Miller to accept 1 year QO's, where if they are hurt, they get nothing is damn impressive.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pete View Post
    It was a job well done because he had to operate that way to get Stepan under contract. There was simply no other way to do it, other than the way he did it. To get Etem and Miller to accept 1 year QO's, where if they are hurt, they get nothing is damn impressive.
    What do you mean if they are hurt they get nothing? QO's are still guaranteed NHL contracts. The QO is a qualifier to retain rights. It is presented to RFA players who can accept it and sign it as a deal (one year) or accept it and then negotiate a different contract, like a multi-year deal.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rome 2.0 View Post
    You guys both missed the mark when I said I was assuming/accounting for all three having impressive seasons. Those are all high-end figures for what could be the case. All I'm doing is trying to illustrate how ugly the numbers can get rather quickly.

    It's why I was saying in the Miller thread, when everyone was busy patting Gorton on the back for a job well done, that it actually wasn't well done. He kicked the can down the road by signing him to a QO that now lumps him in with Hayes, Etem and Kreider, all of whom are arbitration eligible, all of whom need new deals, all of whom are going to be given chances to be significant players for the Rangers this year.

    When you account for all of this and assume a type of worst case scenario (contract-wise), it can get pretty ugly pretty quick.

    But let's entertain the idea of Boyle's money going out as well as Yandle's. Fine. You now have two D you need to replace them both with, by the way. So if you give all that money to the forwards, who backfills their roles?
    Rome, we agree that you accounted for all 3 having impressive seasons. That is the same assumption Gross has. I'm just saying going 3 for 3 on career years should not be assumed, though certainly it is possible and it will have financial ramifications if we bat 100%. However, like Pete said or meant, that is also assuming that all 3 stay healthy too. If Miller does not stay healthy and only ends up with 9 goals, how will he command that money in arb?

    But you are right, you have to prepare for everything. Boyle and Yandle off the books. Brady steps in for Yandle and McIlrath, Diaz or a Diaz type replaces Boyle. You are still going to have 6.5 to 7 mil to deal with those 3 raises. You do not even have to look at Stalberg or Moore's slot, but it is possible to replace them with 1.2 mil vets or maybe even another kid. Lindberg looks to be Moore's long term replacement at this point, so we are talking about a fifth center and a 4th liner if we do not bring Stalberg back.
    Last edited by Giacomin; 07-28-2015 at 12:18 PM.

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    If Miller doesn't stay healthy and only ends up with nine goals, he won't command that money, in arbitration or otherwise. But that's assuming he doesn't stay healthy. There's no reason to assume this. He has no history of injuries, so you'd be talking about a freak occurrence, historically speaking.

    All I'm trying to illustrate here is that the picture isn't rosy. It might actually be kind of grim. Kind like this summer was, especially after Hagelin was dealt.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rome 2.0 View Post
    You guys both missed the mark when I said I was assuming/accounting for all three having impressive seasons. Those are all high-end figures for what could be the case. All I'm doing is trying to illustrate how ugly the numbers can get rather quickly.

    It's why I was saying in the Miller thread, when everyone was busy patting Gorton on the back for a job well done, that it actually wasn't well done. He kicked the can down the road by signing him to a QO that now lumps him in with Hayes, Etem and Kreider, all of whom are arbitration eligible, all of whom need new deals, all of whom are going to be given chances to be significant players for the Rangers this year.

    When you account for all of this and assume a type of worst case scenario (contract-wise), it can get pretty ugly pretty quick.

    But let's entertain the idea of Boyle's money going out as well as Yandle's. Fine. You now have two D you need to replace them both with, by the way. So if you give all that money to the forwards, who backfills their roles?
    Im not jumping on you because of your predictions, I just don't see them, especially Miller, making that much regardless. IMO, Miller isn't getting $3M for 1 good year. He has been streaky at best, and that is something the team is going to use in any negotiations with him. Hayes has the potential, but again, we don't know how his sophomore year will be. I agreed with you on Kreider, and I think he is going to be the hardest one to sign.

    As for Boyle and Yandle, I agree with you, they need to be replaced. If McIlrath can make the team this year and play well, he could be a decent replacement along with Skjei. We also don't know what is going to happen throughout the season, we could see Klein moved as well, lots can happen by next summer.

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    Quote Originally Posted by NYR2711 View Post
    Im not jumping on you because of your predictions, I just don't see them, especially Miller, making that much regardless. IMO, Miller isn't getting $3M for 1 good year. He has been streaky at best, and that is something the team is going to use in any negotiations with him. Hayes has the potential, but again, we don't know how his sophomore year will be. I agreed with you on Kreider, and I think he is going to be the hardest one to sign.

    As for Boyle and Yandle, I agree with you, they need to be replaced. If McIlrath can make the team this year and play well, he could be a decent replacement along with Skjei. We also don't know what is going to happen throughout the season, we could see Klein moved as well, lots can happen by next summer.
    Sure, I get that, but then we're talking about some pretty significant roster overhaul again. Imagine a scenario in which Boyle, Yandle and Klein all go? Now you've lost half your defense and have probably, at least right now, one player ready to step in (Skjei) to fill the void. And this money is being used in large part to re-sign RFA players like the four forwards mentioned. How are you back-filling all these roles with players and not calling it a downgrade?
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    It's a little early to be concretely worried about this one. We really don't know who emerges and who doesn't. The only thing I feel like I know for sure is that our D corps will be vastly different in 2016-2017 simply by virtue of Boyle and Yandle expiring.

    What really ties our hands are the no-move/no-trade clauses in the Staal/Girardi contracts. They're both exactly one year too long, and that's unfortunate. In my head, it's a question of who ends up on the block because of those two. It could be one of those two (which I believe would be the right choice). It could be one of the kids. It could even be Zucc or Brass if we're really poor at management (or the offer is too good).

    Too many unknown unknowns right now.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rome 2.0 View Post
    OK great, that's one role. Who fills the other? Who fills Stålberg and Moore's positions? Also rookies or young players?
    Im not saying its perfect, just saying theoretically, if Skjei fills a spot left by Boyle, thats about 3.5 mil that can go towards resigning. I'm in no way saying there isn't a cap crunch and everything will be perfectly fine, just that there will be money available to sign players
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rome 2.0 View Post
    What do you mean if they are hurt they get nothing? QO's are still guaranteed NHL contracts. The QO is a qualifier to retain rights. It is presented to RFA players who can accept it and sign it as a deal (one year) or accept it and then negotiate a different contract, like a multi-year deal.
    What happens to Miller if he suffers a career ending injury tomorrow? He gets paid for a year.

    What happens if Lindberg does? He gets paid for 2.

    Stepan gets paid for 6.

    See what I mean? Miller and Etem left security and money on the table. Took a lot of convincing for them to do that.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pete View Post
    What happens to Miller if he suffers a career ending injury tomorrow? He gets paid for a year.

    What happens if Lindberg does? He gets paid for 2.

    Stepan gets paid for 6.

    See what I mean? Miller and Etem left security and money on the table. Took a lot of convincing for them to do that.
    Oh, I see what you are saying. I thought you meant that their deal would somehow not pay them in the event they got hurt.

    And yes, I see what you mean, and I also agree/know they had little choice in the matter. Neither had arbitration rights, so with the Rangers so close to the cap, knowing they needed a significant chunk of the cap to reserve for Stepan, they kicked the can down the road with both. I just feel with Miller specifically it'd have been smarter to give him a deal like Fast's. Probably for a little more. I was projecting him at like $1.2M~ per for two years where they'd go long-term with him after that having had, effectively, three full years by that point to know who he is/was as a player.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dunny View Post
    Bring in a luxury tax already. Christ this is dumb.
    Gotta this! Enough already with this team decimation.
    I guess folks put up with it in the NFL and still love their teams, but it gets old losing good young players just because they were successful and you're capped or — if a less rich team —*can't afford to pay 'em. I guess the small markets think, "Welcome to our pain!" as they have a similar problem in keeping successful teams together when it happens.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Respecttheblue View Post
    Gotta this! Enough already with this team decimation.
    I guess folks put up with it in the NFL and still love their teams, but it gets old losing good young players just because they were successful and you're capped or — if a less rich team —*can't afford to pay 'em. I guess the small markets think, "Welcome to our pain!" as they have a similar problem in keeping successful teams together when it happens.
    Except in reverse. It's usually these teams watching their UFA-eligible players walk for greener pastures.
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