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Thread: Derek Stepan Files for Arbitration; $5.2M Offer From NYR, $7.25M Ask from Stepan

  1. #201
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pete View Post
    What's the difference between 6 and 7, realistically?

    There's also a big difference between a 7 year deal at 24 and at 30. 7 years for Stepan today locks him in for his prime. I'd sign Kreider to a 6 year deal next year, as well. Then let the market decide their UFA contract in 7 years, after the next lockout.
    For every year further out one projects, the more likely reality doesn't reflect the projection. When sales or mgmt gave me their quarterly projections, the numbers near term were more reliable than the ones further out. When they gave me next year's plan it was much more realistic than the 3 or 5 year plan.

    In hockey, a fast and physical sport requiring athletes to be at their peak physical and mental condition, I even think 6 year deals are too encumbering and fraught with risk. Let's say Step signs a 7 year deal for 6.3 and blows his knee out next year.

    So you ask what is the realistic difference between 6 and 7? One whole season! Hypothetically, Steps contract could hurt the team significantly in 2020. Is that a good enough reason to also handicap the team even further in the future and throw away 2021? Or 2022? Hey I might be dead, Gorton could be long gone, 95% of the team could be long gone, but hey our kids get to experience Steps cap hit.

  2. #202
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    Giacomin, do you work in the NYR organization?

  3. #203
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    Quote Originally Posted by Giacomin View Post
    For every year further out one projects, the more likely reality doesn't reflect the projection. When sales or mgmt gave me their quarterly projections, the numbers near term were more reliable than the ones further out. When they gave me next year's plan it was much more realistic than the 3 or 5 year plan.
    Sports is nothing like sales.
    In hockey, a fast and physical sport requiring athletes to be at their peak physical and mental condition, I even think 6 year deals are too encumbering and fraught with risk. Let's say Step signs a 7 year deal for 6.3 and blows his knee out next year.
    Let's say he signs a 6 year deal and blows his knee out tomorrow?

    Stepan has been remarkably durable. Any player on any team can get hurt any time. The answer is that if he blows an ACL and is out a year, you LTIR him and regain that cap space.
    So you ask what is the realistic difference between 6 and 7? One whole season! Hypothetically, Steps contract could hurt the team significantly in 2020. Is that a good enough reason to also handicap the team even further in the future and throw away 2021? Or 2022? Hey I might be dead, Gorton could be long gone, 95% of the team could be long gone, but hey our kids get to experience Steps cap hit.
    You said in your first paragraph that near term projections are more reliable than long term... Yet you're worried the '20 cap? I can't even imagine why. That's a whole CBA away and anything can happen. The entire financial landscape of the league could be different. I can't imagine a team NOT signing their 24 year old #1 center to a long term deal because it MAY effect the cap in 7 years.

    I wonder what your opinion of Girardi, Staal and Hanks deals were, considering all of them were far older than Stepan.

  4. #204
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    Quote Originally Posted by Giacomin View Post
    For every year further out one projects, the more likely reality doesn't reflect the projection. When sales or mgmt gave me their quarterly projections, the numbers near term were more reliable than the ones further out. When they gave me next year's plan it was much more realistic than the 3 or 5 year plan.

    In hockey, a fast and physical sport requiring athletes to be at their peak physical and mental condition, I even think 6 year deals are too encumbering and fraught with risk. Let's say Step signs a 7 year deal for 6.3 and blows his knee out next year.

    So you ask what is the realistic difference between 6 and 7? One whole season! Hypothetically, Steps contract could hurt the team significantly in 2020. Is that a good enough reason to also handicap the team even further in the future and throw away 2021? Or 2022? Hey I might be dead, Gorton could be long gone, 95% of the team could be long gone, but hey our kids get to experience Steps cap hit.
    You can honestly say any of that for any contract over a season. Stepan has no injury history though and his contract would take him though his prime with at maximum 3 years on the wrong side of 30. Expecting his contract to hurt the team with no evidence to back that up is a poor way to conduct contract negotiations.


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  5. #205
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    @NYP_Brooksie: Stepan, Rangers meeting this morning in attempt to reach agreement and avoid arbitration hearing...
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  6. #206
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    They can also negotiate right up until the award is announced.

  7. #207
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    Right. Subban, for example, went through his actual arbitration hearing and still ended up re-signing after the hearing itself, before the award was announced.
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  8. #208
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    Stepan has re-signed. New thread here:

    http://www.blueshirtsbrotherhood.com...127#post790127
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