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Thread: NYR Sign [D] Troy Donnay to 3-Year Entry-Level Contract; $688,889 AAV

  1. #41
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    Advanced stats tell a story, but not the whole story. Anyone saying otherwise, either way, is delusional.

    With that said, nothing tells the whole story, so that's why we have all of these metrics. The more information you have to arm yourself with, the better.
    Last edited by Morphinity; 03-01-2014 at 07:30 PM.

  2. #42
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    Hockey is way to random to put much stock in advanced stats. It works in baseball because baseball is just a whole lot of one on one events that added together lead to the end result.

  3. #43
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    Again, it doesn't tell the whole story. No one sane is claiming that it does.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Herman_NYRBlog View Post
    A handful of them. Corsi, Fenwick, QualComp Rel are a few of them. I recommend looking them up if you don't know what they are.
    I understand, thanks for the Info.
    Not sure if you've been around Jr hockey, much.
    But after all these years I've never noticed the Corsi statistic tracked at the jr level

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    Quote Originally Posted by Herman_NYRBlog View Post
    Used by whom? It was used 20 years ago when there was nothing better. So were floppy disks. Brian Burke was recently on a statistics panel and acknowledged that plus/minus is a "useless" stat and that almost nobody in the pro hockey world acknowledges it anymore.

    FYI
    I'll be seeing Brian again this summer, I'll ask him about it

  6. #46
    Senior Member Bantam Division Herman_NYRBlog's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pete View Post
    Dave Nonis also said they don't put much stock in advanced stats either, there's a lot of data collected and no one knows how to use.
    And I think most people would acknowledge that the Leafs have suffered for it. For example, signing David Clarkson to that ridiculous deal. Nonis' ignorance of predictable stats has resulted in him building a team that gets outshot almost every game. For an example of a team on the opposite end of the spectrum, Chicago Blackhawks' GM Stan Bowman very much finds them important. It's totally anecdotal, but I don't think Stan Bowman's tenure as a GM vs Dave Nonis' is much to debate here.

    Nonetheless, even if advanced stats were flawed, that wouldn't therefore justify the legitimacy of plus/minus.
    ww.nyrangersblog.com

  7. #47
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    No one said it did. But advanced stats are just as arbitrary as +/- and in 15 years people might be arguing that Fenwick is crap and Oogyflow is the real measure of a player.

    IMO, none of it matters if you aren't watching games. So I'd question anyone who'd cling to either stat as the end all be all .

    Regardless, a 40 point swing in +/- still can't be totally dismissed. That type of swing at the very least makes you want to use your eyeballs a little more on the player.

  8. #48
    Senior Member Bantam Division Herman_NYRBlog's Avatar
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    You know, it's funny. If someone were to point out in a thread that "Patrick Kane has 27 goals this season" nobody would blink. But mention his corsi and you get a rant about "watching the game" and the limitations of stats, etc. No stat is perfect. The idea isn't that Corsi or Fenwick or anything else is an inherently perfect stat. I don't think you'll find anyone in the hockey community who would tell you that there's an all-encompassing stat out there. That being said, some stats definitely are more indicative than others, and it has been mathematically shown that Corsi is infinitely more consistent with predicting future success.

    In any case, Donnay has definitely improved from last season, but his plus/minus is irrelevant to that point. He's improved in that category by about 30; great. It means literally nothing when you consider the fact that almost the entire Erie team has. Connor Brown went from -11 to +35. Dane Fox went from -1 to plus-37. Connor McDavid went from -24 to +34. Adam Pelech went from -16 to +38. Spencer Abraham went from -30 to +22. And so on. Are we supposed to conclude that every single player is dramatically improved defensively? The fact that Troy Donnay just has to stand around at the blueline while MacDavid, Fox, and Brown combine for 2-4 goals every game and pad his +/- stats doesn't make him inherently better.
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  9. #49
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    When someone is able to give me the WAR of an NHL player I'll be truly happy.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dunny View Post
    When someone is able to give me the WAR of an NHL player I'll be truly happy.
    WAR. Another arbitrarily determined stat.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Herman_NYRBlog View Post
    You know, it's funny. If someone were to point out in a thread that "Patrick Kane has 27 goals this season" nobody would blink. But mention his corsi and you get a rant about "watching the game" and the limitations of stats, etc.
    This actually isn't the case. When someone calls Ryan Callahan a 30 goal scorer in comparison to Patrick Kane's 30 goals we all say watch both players. All 30 goal scorers aren't equal.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pete View Post
    WAR. Another arbitrarily determined stat.
    How so? It's the greatest stat ever. Not for prediction, but for past comparison, it simply can't be beat.

  13. #53
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    How is this stuff "arbitrary"? It's measuring/recording something. What's "arbitrary" is how people use it.

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    That's my question! It's the opposite of arbitrary, it's #'s plugged into a formula.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Morphinity View Post
    How is this stuff "arbitrary"? It's measuring/recording something. What's "arbitrary" is how people use it.
    Well look at hockey. Someone decided that being on the ice for more shots for than against is a key stat...while not even acknowledging the simplest variable - quality of shot for/against.

  16. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pete View Post
    Well look at hockey. Someone decided that being on the ice for more shots for than against is a key stat...while not even acknowledging the simplest variable - quality of shot for/against.
    It's just another tool to arm yourself with, Pete. Take Ryan Callahan for example. You watch the guy play and you see a guy with balls the size of the scoreboard, ability to get garbage goals, misses the net a lot, makes bad passes, is a great forechecker, and solid defensively. Your eyeballs can tell you that.

    Then you take the numbers at your disposal and you try to match those numbers up to what you see and try to find some red flags. So, for example, you look at his Fenwick and Corsi and his SOG totals. Well, would you look at that! He does miss the net a lot.

    Now, if someone comes up to you and says to you, "Ryan Callahan sucks because his PDO is too high!" then you can go ahead and kick him in the teeth because he doesn't understand how to use the information in front of him. Now, I'm using PDO because I believe that's the stat you're referring to when you say "being on the ice for more shots for than against". That's not exactly how PDO works. Here's an article from your favorite site explaining it a bit more:
    http://blogs.thescore.com/nhl/2013/01/21/pdo-explained/

    The point is that there's more to it than someone saying that it's important. Again, it tells a story, but not the whole story. It's sort of like counting cards in blackjack. You can count cards perfectly, but all that does is give you a better idea of when to bet big (and even then, it's not a 100% guarantee that you're going to come up on top, just more likely). You still need to have the expertise and experience of playing blackjack to truly know how to maximize what you're getting from counting cards.

    The Rangers have used advanced stats (Corsi) this season to try to help improve the shots they get through from the point. The latest "Inside the Blueshirts" thing with the wooden soldier the use at practice said that they started using it after they looked at the shots they were getting to the net vs. shot attempts. If you watch the games, all may look normal to you and me, but digging deeper in the stats sometimes uncovers some things to improve a team's or a player's game. So, you're right when you say that none of it matters if you aren't watching the games. But to completely shut out stats (advanced or not) is stubborn and means you're not using all of the tools at your disposal.

  17. #57
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    Assist and a huge +3 tonight.

  18. #58
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    3 assists tonight and 6 points through 3 games played.

  19. #59
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    As he should be really. He's 20 playing junior hockey

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    So no chubbies allowed here?

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