Morphinity 2.0

This one is sneaky good. The Predators are still feeling the effects of being denied U2. And I don't quite believe the Canucks. Going for the upset here.

The Leafs are still not sure who they are. They haven't had the same lineup for more than 3 games, it feels like. Their defense is shambolic - they have a bunch of vets who have totally lost their game. They have no idea what to expect in goal - Samsonov was almost out of the league at one point, then he was incredible, then he looked shaky at the end. Woll was great before he got hurt, and he hasn't been good since coming back. And then you have their forwards who are also all over the place. Matthews is the only constant on this team. Factor all that in with the fact the Bruins haunt the Leafs' dreams, you've got a recipe for a quick ousting. I'm hoping for fireworks in Toronto after this one.

Mazel tov!

(2M) Carolina Hurricanes vs. (3M) New York Islanders REGULAR SEASON STANDINGS: Hurricanes: 52-23-7, 111 points Islanders: 39-27-16, 94 points SEASON SERIES: CAR: 2-1-1, NYI: 2-1-1 GAME BREAKERS: Hurricanes: Jake Guentzel, the marquee acquisition prior the 2024 NHL Trade Deadline, was brought in to provide more offensive depth. The price was huge; the Hurricanes gave up forward Michael Bunting, forward prospects Vasily Ponomarev, Ville Koivunen, and Cruz Lucius, a conditional first-round pick in the 2024 NHL Draft, and a conditional fifth-round pick in the 2024 draft for Guentzel and defenseman Ty Smith. The payoff has been bigger. Guentzel has settled in on the top line and has 25 points (eight goals, 17 assists) in 17 games. Sebastian Aho, his center, has 21 points (11 goals, 10 assists) in the same span. Islanders: Mathew Barzal is the most skilled player on the team and, not surprisingly, he is their leading scorer. The forward has 80 points (23 goals, 57 assists) in 80 games this season, the only point-per-game player on the roster. But it's not just his points, it is the speed at which he plays the game that gives fits to opponents. He can put a defense on its back foot and change a game plan. The Hurricanes will have to account for him each time he is on the ice. GOALTENDING: Hurricanes: Carolina has not had a bona fide No. 1 goaltender in recent memory. Frederik Andersen played 52 games in 2021-22, the first Carolina goalie to play more than 50 games since Cam Ward played 61 in 2016-17. Since, they have been a platoon team, which has been a boon in the regular season and a struggle in the postseason. It's more of the same this season with no clear-cut favorite to start. Four goalies started games this season: Pyotr Kochetkov (40 games), Antti Raanta (20), Andersen (16) and Spencer Martin (six), but now it is a 1a-1b situation with Kochetkov and Anderson. Kochetkov went 23-13-4 with a 2.33 goals-against average, .911 save percentage and four shutouts. Anderson, out long-term with a blood-clotting issue, is 9-1-0 with a 1.30 GAA, .951 save percentage and three shutouts since returning on March 4. Islanders: A late-season charge by Semyon Varlamov has unseated Ilya Sorokin as the No. 1 goalie. In his past 10 starts, Varlamov is 8-1-1 with a 2.09 GAA and a .930 save percentage. It's likely that Roy will go with the hot hand in Varlamov over Sorokin, who played in the All-Star Game last season when he was also a finalist for the Vezina Trophy. Varlamov played in 33 postseason games for the Islanders from 2019-21, going 18-14 with a 2.31 GAA and .922 save percentage. Sorokin played every minute against the Hurricanes in the first round last season and went 2-4 with a 2.60 GAA and .920 save percentage. X FACTORS: Hurricanes: Andrei Svechnikov did not play in 2023 postseason after having surgery to repair a torn ACL in his right knee but the forward bounced back this regular season; he tied for the second-best points per game average of his NHL career (0.88; 52 points in 59 games) and is an important secondary scorer considering Carolina has been playing Guentzel on the top line with Aho. Svechnikov's goal-scoring upside (30 in 2021-22) makes him a potential difference maker. Islanders: Noah Dobson had a breakout season with an NHL career-high 70 points (10 goals, 60 assists) in 79 games, seventh in the League among defensemen, but has missed the past three games because of an upper-body injury. Dobson ranks sixth among defensemen in assists this season and second at the position in primary assists (35) behind Roman Josi (38) of the Nashville Predators. Given the Islanders issues on special teams, Dobson's health and level of play at each end of the ice is crucial to their chances of upsetting the Hurricanes. WILL WIN IF: Hurricanes: They stick to the game plan. They are superior to the Islanders in almost every facet and have dominated the League for long stretches this season. Their plus-63 goal differential is the second-best in the League behind the Florida Panthers and their 216 goals against is fourth-best. They are deep, they are talented and they are disciplined. They haven't beaten themselves much this regular season and don't want to start in the postseason. Islanders: They figure out how to generate more offense, especially on their power play. New York averages 2.99 goals per game, the second-lowest output of any of the teams that qualified for the postseason behind the Washington Capitals (2.63). The Islanders drew 231 power-play opportunities, the fifth-lowest in the League and scored on 47 (20.4 percent). Among playoff teams, only the Winnipeg Jets (19.1) and Vegas Golden Knights (20.1) had worst conversion rates. MORE:

(2A) Boston Bruins vs. (3A) Toronto Maple Leafs REGULAR SEASON STANDINGS: Bruins: 47-20-15, 109 points Maple Leafs: 46-26-10, 102 points SEASON SERIES: BOS 4-0-0; TOR 0-2-2 GAME BREAKERS: Bruins: David Pastrnak is the Bruins' most dynamic scorer, finishing fifth in the NHL with 110 points and leading Boston by 43 points over Marchand. It marked the second straight season he's gotten at least 110 points (113 last season). Pastrnak had 47 goals and 63 assists, including 35 points on the power play. He has scored more than a point per game in the playoffs, (35 goals, 44 assists in 77 games), including the 2019 Stanley Cup Final. Maple Leafs: It had been 31 seasons since Teemu Selanne and Alexander Mogilny each scored 76 goals in 1992-93. Though Matthews just missed 70 goals, his 69 were the most since Mario Lemieux scored 69 in 1995-96. Matthews is clearly the gamebreaker on a team full of offensive stars. He had 107 points in 81 games, a new NHL career high. He has 44 points (22 goals, 22 assists) in 50 playoff games, including 11 (five goals, six assists) last season when he reached the second round for the first time. GOALTENDING: Bruins: Goaltending is their biggest strength. They boast a 1A/1B tandem that no one can match, with Ullmark, the reigning Vezina Trophy winner, and Jeremy Swayman. Ullmark went 22-10-7 with a 2.57 goals-against average, .915 save percentage and two shutouts in 40 games (39 starts), including 6-3-0 with a 1.90 GAA and .935 save percentage in nine games since the 2024 NHL Trade Deadline on March 8. Swayman went 25-10-8 with a 2.53 GAA and .916 save percentage in 44 games (43 starts). It is unknown, so far, who will start Game 1 and, beyond that, how the Bruins will use their goalies. Maple Leafs: Ilya Samsonov is likely to start for the Maple Leafs. He was 23-7-8 with a 3.13 GAA, .890 save percentage and three shutouts in 40 games, a season so up-and-down he required a break and reportedly considered retirement. He was placed on waivers Dec. 31 and recalled from Toronto of the American Hockey League on Jan. 10. Samsonov has 17 games of postseason experience and is 5-10 with a 3.06 GAA and .902 save percentage, including 4-4 in nine games last season with a 3.13 GAA and .898 save percentage. Behind him is Joseph Woll, who went 12-11-1 with a 2.94 GAA and .907 save percentage in 25 games (23 starts). X FACTORS: Bruins: Thanks largely to Charlie Coyle's NHL career highs in goals (25) and points (60), the Bruins maintained their regular-season dominance after Bergeron and Krejci retired. The 32-year-old has performed well in the playoffs as a third-line center; he had 16 points (nine goals, seven assists) in 24 games during their Cup Final run in 2019 and six points (two goals, four assists) in seven games of the 2022 postseason. But Coyle and fellow center Pavel Zacha will have their most difficult assignment of their playoff careers against Maple Leafs centers Matthews and Tavares. Maple Leafs: Tyler Bertuzzi was elevated to Matthews' line down the stretch and bounced back from a slow start with 21 points (14 goals, seven assists) over his final 26 games. Toronto signed Bertuzzi to a one-year contract to bring a different element to its forward group come postseason time, and he faces his former team after he had 10 points (five goals, five assists) during Boston's seven-game loss to Florida in 2023. Bertuzzi also has a high goal-scoring ceiling considering he had 30 in 68 games for the Detroit Red Wings in 2021-22. WILL WIN IF: Bruins: Their goalie -- or goalies -- play at their best. Both can steal games and they'll need to do exactly that because the Bruins will struggle to match the Maple Leafs goal-for-goal in a high-scoring affair. Maple Leafs: Their offense takes over. Few teams can equal the Maple Leafs in terms of pure scoring potential with the combination of Matthews, William Nylander, Marner and Tavares. If that quartet is scoring in bunches, Toronto takes the series. MORE:

(1P) Vancouver Canucks vs. (1WC) Nashville Predators REGULAR SEASON STANDINGS: Canucks: 50-23-9, 109 points Predators: 47-30-5, 99 points SEASON SERIES: VAN: 3-0-0, NSH: 0-3-0 GAME BREAKERS: Canucks: Quinn Hughes arguably was the most dominant defenseman in the NHL this season, leading players at his position with 92 points (17 goals, 75 assists) in 82 games, and was plus-38 while averaging 24:41 of ice time per game. The 24-year-old did some of his best work at even strength, with his 54 points in such situations first among defensemen. He was on the ice for 108 goals at even strength, second among defensemen to Evan Bouchard of the Edmonton Oilers (112), and his plus-41 even-strength goal differential was fourth. And when Hughes was on the ice the Canucks averaged 56.4 percent of the shots at 5-on-5. Simply put, whenever Hughes was on the ice, the Canucks had the puck and likely were creating something offensively. Predators: Forward Filip Forsberg had the best offensive season of his 12 in the NHL, setting a Nashville record with 48 goals and finishing with 94 points (46 assists), a personal high. He also scored an NHL career-high 11 game-winning goals, tied with Florida Panthers forward Sam Bennett for second in the League, and his three overtime goals were tied for the lead. GOALTENDING: Canucks: Demko looked ready for the postseason after returning to the lineup with 39 saves in a 4-1 win against the Calgary Flames on Tuesday, his first game since March 9 because of a knee injury. After struggling last season with a groin injury that kept him out for more than two months, Demko has been mostly healthy this season and played like a top goalie in the NHL, going 35-14-2 with a 2.45 goals-against average, .918 save percentage and five shutouts. Backup Casey DeSmith was reliable at times, going 4-5-1 with a 2.94 GAA and .888 save percentage while starting 10 of 14 games Demko was out, but the Canucks' fortunes will ride with Demko's play. Predators: Juuse Saros had what could be considered an off season but only by his outstanding standards. Discounting his one game in 2015-16, Saros' 2.86 GAA was the highest of his nine-season NHL career, and his .906 save percentage was the lowest. He also allowed eight goals on 48 shots in losing both of his starts against the Canucks. But Saros has the ability to raise his game at big moments, with a .914 save percentage in the playoffs that's not far off his .917 regular-season percentage for his career. Kevin Lankinen was solid (11-6-0, 2.82, .908) in 24 games (17 starts) as the backup, but the wild card could be rookie Yaroslav Askarov, widely regarded as the NHL’s top goalie prospect. In his only start this season he made 26 saves in a 3-2 shootout win against the Washington Capitals that included saves on Evgeny Kuznetsov and Alex Ovechkin in the tiebreaker. If Saros struggles, could Brunette turn to the 21-year-old for an energy boost? X FACTORS: Canucks: Forward Elias Lindholm has 12 points (six goals, six assists) in 26 games with Vancouver after being acquired in a trade from the Calgary Flames on Jan. 31. Lindholm has bounce-back potential during the playoffs as he had 32 points (nine goals, 23 assists) in 49 games with Calgary prior to the trade. He at least finished on a bit of a roll with five points (two goals, three assists) in six games to close the regular season and is seeing top-six ice time and significant power-play usage. Predators: Gustav Nyquist was third on the Predators with an NHL career-high 75 points (23 goals, 52 assists) in 81 games. He has been a fixture on the top line with Forsberg and Ryan O'Reilly, who was second to Forsberg with 26 goals. With Predators having struggled against the Canucks during the regular season, Nyquist being effective on their top line and first power-play unit will be necessary for Nashville to offset Vancouver's elite offense. WILL WIN IF: Canucks: They don't get caught up in the moment. Most of the core was in place in 2020 when they made a surprise run, but there were no fans in the bubble. Now they'll be the favorite and under pressure from what certainly will be a sold-out Rogers Arena, packed with fans with huge expectations. It can be a bit much for a group that's never experienced it, but the focus will have to be on staying even-keeled through the highs and lows that come with postseason hockey. Predators: Saros can carry his strong play from late in the regular season into the playoffs. He was 15-3-3 with a 2.51 GAA and .916 save percentage in his final 21 games, allowing two goals or fewer in 13 of them. The Canucks can attack in waves, so the Predators will need their No. 1 goalie to play like a star if they are to have any hope of advancing. MORE:

Thanks fellas. Good season. As always, thank you to @Phil for commishing and for being a doormat for the final series of the season.

If you watch the video or read what people are saying here, no one is blaming Gallant for everything.

I don't want to call it "gifting" minutes, but 1st overall picks usually go to teams with more ice time to spread around. Connor Bedard wasn't going to be playing 3rd line minutes on the Blackhawks this year because they have a borderline NHL roster. These top level players just develop better with more ice time, more puck touches, and more freedom. Unfortunately the AHL wasn't available to him because that really should have been the move. We've discussed this ad nauseum though.

Yeah, a lot of it is pointing out how many more puck touches Lafreniere is getting vs. his previous years. And he credits that to a) playing with Panarin and b) getting more leash from his coaches. I don't completely blame Gallant. As they said in the beginning of the video, he's a kid coming onto a team trying to win right away with a logjam at LW ahead of him. So he's already behind the 8-ball in terms of optimal development for an elite talent. Some of it falls on Quinn's and Gallant's coaching style for sure, but I'm not sure how another coach would have squeezed even more out of him early in his career.

Dimitri Filipovic had Daryl Belfry on and they broke down Laf's improvement aided by a sizzle reel:

If this happens, I'll buy your plane ticket for the parade.

Retired: https://theprovince.com/sports/hockey/nhl/vancouver-canucks/former-coach-alain-vigneault-retired

And Clear Sight focuses mainly on scoring chances and actual quality of shots whereas something like Sportlogiq drills down on a lot of smaller stats like puck retrievals, zone entries, etc.. There's a lot of variety out there depending on philosophy of the company. Pretty much across the board I've heard that public models/data is garbage.

Rangers in 6 because nothing is ever easy for this team. I fucking hate the Capitals and their stupid goal siren, cheer horn, and mouthbreathing fans. At least Braden Holtby isn't around anymore.