2020 Draft in COVIDland: Lottery and Prospects

Many of the final prospect rankings are out. Looks like the Rangers will have picks in the mid-teens and mid-twenties. No 2nds, 2 3rds. That's if we don't lose to the Canes. If we do, it's lottery city. Either way, are we looking for that 2-3C or the finishing winger? What if the BPA is a D-man? Who's falling? Who's rising? HS dark horses? Who's right for Broadway and who is not? Is trading up still a thing? Tell it.

To go along with my feelings from the last 2 drafts, I'd like to see the Rangers target a legit, close-to-NHL-ready shoot-first sniper.

 

mid first, in order of favorites:

14-19.) Noel Gunler (W)

10-12.) Dawson Mercer (RW)

13 - 24.) Connor Zary ©

22-28.) Jacob Perreault ©

 

Quinn, Jarvis also projected to be scorers, but they'll probably be gone... but I'm not as high on them.

 

mid first, in order of favorites:

14-19.) Noel Gunler (W) - Good size, good shot, good passer - all around a solid player that could turn into an elite skill guy or scorer, or if things don't pan out, a solid middle 6er.

Mike G. Morreale - NHL.com - Feb. 5th: "A skater with good passing skills, shot selection, and who is unafraid to drive the net to create offense."

http://www.mynhldraft.com/2020-nhl-draft/player-profiles/Noel-Gunler

 

10-12.) Dawson Mercer (RW) - While I don't usually like guys coming from the Q, this guy scores at every level he's played. He's also one of those guys who does a little of everything - a Derek Stepan but with better skating and better goal scoring ability.

 

 

13 - 24.) Connor Zary © - Comes from the WHL, another questionable league in terms of producing productive NHL forwards, but another guy that can score. A smaller modern power-forward, at 6' 180, but he plays the role. Corners, in front of the net, dirty work, and plays in all 3 zones. Also, does not project to have a high ceiling as some other mid/late round picks, but should be a solid NHLer. Think Vesey with a nutsack.

 

22-28.) Jacob Perreault © - Son of Yanic Perreault, Ranked 6th in OHL among undrafted players - 4 being overages, plus Rossi & Quinn, and only a few goals behind Kaliyev from the 2020 draft. Dude can skate, dude can score. I dont see him developing a game as a shutdown forward. Probably one of the best shooters, and probably one of the best skaters in the draft.

To go along with my feelings from the last 2 drafts, I'd like to see the Rangers target a legit, close-to-NHL-ready shoot-first sniper.

 

mid first, in order of favorites:

14-19.) Noel Gunler (W)

10-12.) Dawson Mercer (RW)

13 - 24.) Connor Zary ©

22-28.) Jacob Perreault ©

 

Quinn, Jarvis also projected to be scorers, but they'll probably be gone... but I'm not as high on them.

 

mid first, in order of favorites:

14-19.) Noel Gunler (W) - Good size, good shot, good passer - all around a solid player that could turn into an elite skill guy or scorer, or if things don't pan out, a solid middle 6er.

http://www.mynhldraft.com/2020-nhl-draft/player-profiles/Noel-Gunler

 

10-12.) Dawson Mercer (RW) - While I don't usually like guys coming from the Q, this guy scores at every level he's played. He's also one of those guys who does a little of everything - a Derek Stepan but with better skating and better goal scoring ability.

 

 

13 - 24.) Connor Zary © - Comes from the WHL, another questionable league in terms of producing productive NHL forwards, but another guy that can score. A smaller modern power-forward, at 6' 180, but he plays the role. Corners, in front of the net, dirty work, and plays in all 3 zones. Also, does not project to have a high ceiling as some other mid/late round picks, but should be a solid NHLer. Think Vesey with a nutsack.

 

22-28.) Jacob Perreault © - Son of Yanic Perreault, Ranked 6th in OHL among undrafted players - 4 being overages, plus Rossi & Quinn, and only a few goals behind Kaliyev from the 2020 draft. Dude can skate, dude can score. I dont see him developing a game as a shutdown forward. Probably one of the best shooters, and probably one of the best skaters in the draft.

 

Always great to see your picks, Josh. Always very thoughtful with so much knowledge packed in them. As usual, I just watch the horse race among the raters and it's been weird with a short season. (But in COVIDland I've definitely watched more video than ever before.)

 

As Chytil has not yet sealed the deal for me as the 2C (he definitely could but needs to keep moving toward that upside) I've been figuring that going for an insurance policy in a center would pretty closely align with BPA in the mid-teens. Zary has got the goods - stood out in the mock drafts and rankings and his clips show great tools. (What is it with the WHL? It's like the PCL in baseball where everybody hits .330. Brett Howden had 38 goals for Moose Jaw.) But Zary has seemed to be creeping up closer to 10 and he may be gone. The rise of guys like Quinn and Jarvis plus Ds like Sanderson and maybe even Schneider are pushing down some of the guys who were in the top 10 at mid-season like Lundell and Holloway. Would you take either of those guys over Zary? Everyone is pissing on Lundell's skating and Holloway undershot scoring expectations as a freshman at UW. Holloway seems like he would be a (David) Quinn type, good motor and pretty physical. Might be a good get in the 20s, but probably won't last that long.

 

Watching Gunler's video was enlightening and impressive. Great shot, physical for a Swede, good D. Seems to be generally in the right place.

 

Perreault was the one with the packed highlight reel. He seems like he could go higher. Not sure what the knock on him is. Great skater, good hands, good eyes. Hadn't really looked at him hard, but I was knocked out. Would be great to get him in the 20s. Seems a cut above Colangelo or Reichel or some of the others in that range, but some have Perreault as high as 31 or 32.

 

Mercer seems the least dramatically talented of the 3, but seems to play practical and smart. A lot of his highlight reel goals seemed to be rebounds and garbage stuff rather than laser beams, but he's in the right place at the right time. And he is a C (who they say can also play wing) with good playmaking ability and sniffing distance of 2 ppg, even if it is the Q. What's not to like? May be the choice for versatility.

 

As for Quinn, it's hard to argue with 52 goals in a short season in the OHL, but there doesn't seem to be any outstanding tool. And Jarvis is fast and clearly a slick passer, but he's one of those guy that you wonder if it will translate at the next couple of levels. So, agree with you there.

 

What do you think of Amirov and Brisson?

 

We'll see how McKenzie and Button shape expectations going in. They'll surely wait as long as possible for maximum suspense.

As far as defense goes, I like what I?ve read on Barron and Schneider.

As far as forwards Perrault, Neighbors and Holloway.

 

 

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Always great to see your picks, Josh. Always very thoughtful with so much knowledge packed in them. As usual, I just watch the horse race among the raters and it's been weird with a short season. (But in COVIDland I've definitely watched more video than ever before.)

 

As Chytil has not yet sealed the deal for me as the 2C (he definitely could but needs to keep moving toward that upside) I've been figuring that going for an insurance policy in a center would pretty closely align with BPA in the mid-teens. Zary has got the goods - stood out in the mock drafts and rankings and his clips show great tools. (What is it with the WHL? It's like the PCL in baseball where everybody hits .330. Brett Howden had 38 goals for Moose Jaw.) But Zary has seemed to be creeping up closer to 10 and he may be gone. The rise of guys like Quinn and Jarvis plus Ds like Sanderson and maybe even Schneider are pushing down some of the guys who were in the top 10 at mid-season like Lundell and Holloway. Would you take either of those guys over Zary? Everyone is pissing on Lundell's skating and Holloway undershot scoring expectations as a freshman at UW. Holloway seems like he would be a (David) Quinn type, good motor and pretty physical. Might be a good get in the 20s, but probably won't last that long.

 

Watching Gunler's video was enlightening and impressive. Great shot, physical for a Swede, good D. Seems to be generally in the right place.

 

Perreault was the one with the packed highlight reel. He seems like he could go higher. Not sure what the knock on him is. Great skater, good hands, good eyes. Hadn't really looked at him hard, but I was knocked out. Would be great to get him in the 20s. Seems a cut above Colangelo or Reichel or some of the others in that range, but some have Perreault as high as 31 or 32.

 

Mercer seems the least dramatically talented of the 3, but seems to play practical and smart. A lot of his highlight reel goals seemed to be rebounds and garbage stuff rather than laser beams, but he's in the right place at the right time. And he is a C (who they say can also play wing) with good playmaking ability and sniffing distance of 2 ppg, even if it is the Q. What's not to like? May be the choice for versatility.

 

As for Quinn, it's hard to argue with 52 goals in a short season in the OHL, but there doesn't seem to be any outstanding tool. And Jarvis is fast and clearly a slick passer, but he's one of those guy that you wonder if it will translate at the next couple of levels. So, agree with you there.

 

What do you think of Amirov and Brisson?

 

We'll see how McKenzie and Button shape expectations going in. They'll surely wait as long as possible for maximum suspense.

 

Not sure why, but I've complete fell off the Lundell bandwagon. I was high on him... but I'm not sure his ceiling is there. When I'm looking at potential top picks, I want that hope that this guy could be a superstar. Lundell is a poor-man's M Koivu, at best. I think he'll be a solid middle 6 center, but I dont see the huge up-side, there. Perhaps the recent influx of Finnish flops is in my head.

 

Holloway I havent watching much. He didnt have a noteworthy season in the NCAA, and he's only had 1 season where he put up big numbers. Also, when watching highlights of that team, you dont see Holloway as much as you should. He's a complimentary player, and there were a lot of players to compliment on that Wisconsin team this season. And the fact that they were so horrible is another red flag.

 

Amirov is years away from being an NHL player. He has high upside, but I've been looking at guys that will hopefully be NHL players in 3-4 seasons, and being able to be contributors during the last few years of the decade. This kid has skill, but I'm not sure I see him getting to the point where he could offer more than the Rangers projected top 9 during that time. If he's there in the 2nd, grab him. But he's going to be 4, 5 seasons before he comes over and contributes... and that's if Quinn doesnt know he's a foreign born player. Love the skill though. Lack of size is scary, but then again we have Panarin.

 

I havent made up my mind on Brisson. I think he will be there with the Rangers 2nd 1st round pick, but I think there may be other players. While I like his skating and playmaking, I feel he's more of a boom or bust pick. He's going to be a Matt Barzal or a Corey Locke.

I really like Perrault. Seems to be a pretty decent chance he'll be in NYR's pick range, obviously depending on how they do in the playoffs.

For me, the first pick of this draft has to be about a goalscoring forward. I'm normally BPA all the way, but in this years draft it has to be a no brainer decision for me to pick a D with the first two picks (yes, I'm aware it won't actually be me making the pick). Something ridiculous like Drysdale falling to the Rangers.

This morning's post-lottery mock draft in the Athletic has the Rangers ending up with both Mercer (with Zary and Holloway still available) and Perreault. That would be a pretty fine outcome.

 

They've got Gunler dropping to the end of the round. The rise of D guys like Sanderson, Schneider, and even potentially Barron is pushing some pretty tasty options into both slots for the Rangers.

 

 

 

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