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View Full Version : Oilers On Pace for Highest Shot at First Overall Pick... Again



Phil in Absentia
02-25-2016, 11:48 AM
If the season ended today, I believe they'd have the highest percentage, again, at the first overall pick. A 20% shot. Last year was a 25% chance.

When will this end?

Blue Heaven
02-25-2016, 11:50 AM
when they get some defense.

Lt. Dan
02-25-2016, 11:51 AM
I forget to ask whenever this comes up, so I will now.

Are there no rule(s) that prevents a team from having multiple 1st overall picks in a row? I didn't see the lotto drawing last year; but I would lose my shit as a GM if I saw the same team continuing to get the 1st overall.

Morphinity
02-25-2016, 11:53 AM
Leah Hextall said on HC@Noon yesterday that teams should not be allowed to suck this much for this long. She's absolutely right, and the NHL should do something to prevent them being rewarded for constant suck.

Phil in Absentia
02-25-2016, 11:55 AM
when they get some defense.

Agreed. If they win this year's pick they should trade it for an established top D, or a handful of defenders.

Like to Nashville for Weber and whatever else.


I forget to ask whenever this comes up, so I will now.

Are there no rule(s) that prevents a team from having multiple 1st overall picks in a row? I didn't see the lotto drawing last year; but I would lose my shit as a GM if I saw the same team continuing to get the 1st overall.

None.

Dunny
02-25-2016, 11:56 AM
They talk about making changes every year and they never do. Don't change a thing.

Phil in Absentia
02-25-2016, 11:59 AM
They talk about making changes every year and they never do. Don't change a thing.

Yeah, big talk. Small bite.

I really, really want to see them do it this time. Actually cut from the core. Significantly. Not just moving out a couple UFA-to-be's and signing a UFA this summer.

Move RNH. Move Hall. Move Eberle. Move someone of signifcance for someone of significance.

Chris Pronger again.

Lt. Dan
02-25-2016, 12:27 PM
That is horseshit. If they landed the first overall again their should be mayhem. Anything to get rules implemented regarding this stuff.

I don't even care about who they would pick because they'll suck anyway. I just think it's unfair to the other teams involved.

Blue Heaven
02-25-2016, 12:32 PM
Leah Hextall said on HC@Noon yesterday that teams should not be allowed to suck this much for this long. She's absolutely right, and the NHL should do something to prevent them being rewarded for constant suck.

Obviously they arent being rewarded since they continue to suck.

Lt. Dan
02-25-2016, 12:35 PM
Obviously they arent being rewarded since they continue to suck.

Getting a generational talent after sucking all season is a damn good reward if you ask me.

The rest is just bad asset management.

Blue Heaven
02-25-2016, 12:52 PM
Getting a generational talent after sucking all season is a damn good reward if you ask me.

The rest is just bad asset management.


and none of their #1 picks have worked out as of now as a team.

Taylor Hall, 2010 #1 Pick
RNH, 2011 #1 Pick
Nail Yakupov, 2012 #1 Pick
Connor McDavid, 2015 #1 pick

Its all bad asset management for the edmonton oilers. With all these #1 picks they should just about be the Chicago Blackhawks, but they're not so in essence the draft lottery has not rewarded them b/c they just continue to suck.

NYRangers92
02-25-2016, 12:57 PM
At least the system changes this year and theyre no longer guaranteed at worst 2nd overall. Could fall to 4th

Phil in Absentia
02-25-2016, 12:58 PM
It's beyond just #1 overall picks, too.

They've had a top-10 pick for seven straight years.

2009 — Pääjärvi #10
2010 — Hall #1
2011 — RNH #1
2012 — Yakupov #1
2013 — Nurse #7
2014 — Draisaitl #3
2015 — McDavid #1

One went bust (Pääjärvi), but it's done nothing for their fortunes.

Vodka Drunkenski
02-25-2016, 01:13 PM
4 number 1 picks in 6 years and they still suck, maybe time for new scouts?

Morphinity
02-25-2016, 01:15 PM
Nah, their picks are pretty much fine, IMO. It's just the rest of the team is hot garbage, especially their defense and, up until lately, their goaltending.

And Talbot isn't that good, either. But he's much better than the Oilers have had in the last 4-5 years. Their defense is the worst aspect of that team though.

AmericanJesus
02-25-2016, 01:35 PM
McDavid and Draisaitl are your 1/2 centers
Hall and Pouliot are your top two left wings.
Eberle is fine for a top 2 RW

So your trade chips who can get you a decent return on defense are RNH and Yakupov. RNH should return a legit #2 defender who's a veteran but not too old. Yakupov should be able to get you a younger 3/4 defender.

You put those guys with Sekera, Klefbom, Nurse and Reinhart.

Now if you get the #1 overall pick, you look to either swap that for a young #1 defender or you trade down and take the best D in the draft.

Then you see where the chips fall out for your other forwards slots. Meantime, you keep looking for that goalie who can finally win in Edmonton. But helping the D in this way will go a long way there.

Phil in Absentia
02-25-2016, 01:53 PM
McDavid and Draisaitl are your 1/2 centers
Hall and Pouliot are your top two left wings.
Eberle is fine for a top 2 RW

So your trade chips who can get you a decent return on defense are RNH and Yakupov. RNH should return a legit #2 defender who's a veteran but not too old. Yakupov should be able to get you a younger 3/4 defender.

You put those guys with Sekera, Klefbom, Nurse and Reinhart.

Now if you get the #1 overall pick, you look to either swap that for a young #1 defender or you trade down and take the best D in the draft.

Then you see where the chips fall out for your other forwards slots. Meantime, you keep looking for that goalie who can finally win in Edmonton. But helping the D in this way will go a long way there.

RNH and Yakupov to Nashville for Shea Weber and Barrett Jackman.

Mistercosmic
02-25-2016, 02:20 PM
It's beyond just #1 overall picks, too.

They've had a top-10 pick for seven straight years.

2009 — Pääjärvi #10
2010 — Hall #1
2011 — RNH #1
2012 — Yakupov #1
2013 — Nurse #7
2014 — Draisaitl #3
2015 — McDavid #1

One went bust (Pääjärvi), but it's done nothing for their fortunes.


During the same period of time the Oilers had 49 further draft picks (1* first rounder, 7* second rounders, 9* third rounders, 12* fourth rounders, 7* fifth rounders, 6* sixth rounders, 7* seventh rounders).

Guess how many of these 49 drafted players have since then advanced to solid, recogniced NHL players? The answer is: 5 (Klefbom #19, Lander #40, Marincin #46, Rieder #114, Davidson #162)!

Guess how many of these five players are in the Oilers team roster nowadays? The answer is: 3 (Klefbom, Lander, Davidson)!

So yes, it's beyond just #1 overall picks. It's fairly easy to pick the most talented and prominent player of his generation at the draft. But the Oilers were not able to build up a good hockey team with depth, because they wasted so many lower round draft picks.

AmericanJesus
02-25-2016, 02:31 PM
RNH and Yakupov to Nashville for Shea Weber and Barrett Jackman.

Yeah, something like that. Of course, that leaves Nashville thin on D, but it helps their salary structure considerably. Weber has 2 more years at $12M in actual salary before it drops considerably.

Phil in Absentia
02-25-2016, 02:33 PM
During the same period of time the Oilers had 49 further draft picks (1* first rounder, 7* second rounders, 9* third rounders, 12* fourth rounders, 7* fifth rounders, 6* sixth rounders, 7* seventh rounders).

Guess how many of these 49 drafted players have since then advanced to solid, recogniced NHL players? The answer is: 5 (Klefbom #19, Lander #40, Marincin #46, Rieder #114, Davidson #162)!

Guess how many of these five players are in the Oilers team roster nowadays? The answer is: 3 (Klefbom, Lander, Davidson)!

So yes, it's beyond just #1 overall picks. It's fairly easy to pick the most talented and prominent player of his generation at the draft. But the Oilers were not able to build up a good hockey team with depth, because they wasted so many lower round draft picks.

Brutal.

And on top of it, they're pretty much dead last on the list for every free agent come July 1st, so they often can't even sign quality free agents to serve as stop gaps.

Mistercosmic
02-25-2016, 02:48 PM
Here some players the Oilers had the chance to draft between 2009 and 2012: Nick Leddy, Ryan Ellis, Calvin de Haan, Tomas Tatar, Cody Eakin, Chris Wideman, Justin Faulk, Alex Petrovic, Ryan Spooner, Radko Gudas, Boone Jenner, John Gibson AND Frederik Andersen (!), Victor Rask, Brandon Saad, Matt Nieto, Vincent Trochek, Shayne Gostisbehere, Colton Parayko.

The most bizarre example for bad decision making: in the 2nd round of the 2010 entry draft the Oilers picked Martin Marincin and Curtis Hamilton at 46th and 48th overall. Meanwhile, Marincin was traded by the Oilers to the Toronto Maple Leafs on 27 June 2015, while Hamilton played just one NHL game for the Oilers and is currently playing for Praha in the Czech Republik. The 47th overall pick was...Tyler Toffoli!

Respecttheblue
02-25-2016, 05:59 PM
As Blue Heaven points out below, they should be a lot better than they are by now.

It's seeing situations like this that bring me back down to earth when I start to get too high on the idea of what a high-ranking 1st round pick would do for us.



and none of their #1 picks have worked out as of now as a team.

Taylor Hall, 2010 #1 Pick
RNH, 2011 #1 Pick
Nail Yakupov, 2012 #1 Pick
Connor McDavid, 2015 #1 pick

Its all bad asset management for the edmonton oilers. With all these #1 picks they should just about be the Chicago Blackhawks, but they're not so in essence the draft lottery has not rewarded them b/c they just continue to suck.

ThirtyONE
02-26-2016, 08:31 PM
If you miss the playoffs you should have an equal shot at getting the #1 pick. These teams that continually finish last keep getting rewarded and it's bullshit. Every team name goes into the fish bowl and you pick one at a time. Whatever order you're picked is your draft order.

RichieNextel305
02-26-2016, 09:22 PM
Would anyone really blame Matthews if he turned around and refused to play there? I know no one wants to see these kids act entitled. But at what point, when is enough enough?

Blue Heaven
03-14-2016, 02:50 PM
http://www.sbnation.com/nhl/2016/3/14/11220816/nhl-general-manager-meetings-oilers-draft-lottery-mcdavid-blues-doug-armstrong


In the last six years, the Edmonton Oilers have held the first overall pick four times. St. Louis Blues general manager Doug Armstrong intends to fix the system that led to that outcome.

The NHL general managers are in Florida this week to discuss the state of the game and how to improve it. Armstrong reportedly intends to propose a change to the NHL draft lottery that removes luck from the equation.
Armstrong's system is simple: if a team jumps to the first overall pick in a year they didn't finish with the league's worst record, they are ineligible to do so again for five years.

Phil in Absentia
03-14-2016, 02:52 PM
Too many rules. Too many details.

Want the fairest possible outcome? Disincentivize the entire process of tanking by giving every team who makes the playoffs an equal opportunity at selecting first overall.

Much as I'd hate to see Edmonton win again, they aren't doing anything wrong here according to the letter of the law. This is the way the system is designed. You can argue they are exploiting it, but the number of personnel they've fired int he last few years says otherwise. They just suck.

Dunny
03-14-2016, 03:08 PM
Abolish the draft, and let the market develop organically like it does in European Football.

As far as hockey goes, Euro clubs should be getting paid for the players they are developing. So should NA junior clubs. As it is now, billionaire owners are the only benefactor of the system.

Phil in Absentia
03-14-2016, 03:14 PM
Pragmatic, I suppose, but utopian compared to what we are working in right now. If you initiate this process tomorrow, 1/3 of the league (who I'm sure some would argue deserve to) would go under in five to ten years.

Dunny
03-14-2016, 03:20 PM
I agree. It would be impossible to do under the current structure obviously but a relegation system would be ideal to me with a 20-25 team league.

NHLPA would probably hate it, but if you're actually paying Euro teams for the players you are stealing then the Euro leagues will be stronger and have more money for players. It, imo, would pave the way for a truly global game with multiple powerhouse teams outside the NHL.

It's not going to happen, but it's fun to think about.

Future
03-14-2016, 03:39 PM
The only difference between EDM and Chicago & Pitt is that the latter two actually won. They all did the same thing. Tanking has been a part of the game for what, 15 years now? It just seems wildly hypocritical to make EDM the scapegoat for trying to change the draft when they're just copying the model that was built by the team that the league markets harder than anyone else.

Chicago had top-3 picks in 3 out of 4 years, and picked 7th in that 4th year. I mean, imagine how good they could have been if they didn't totally fuck up by drafting Cam Barker 3rd or Jack Skille 7th - although that was a pretty terrible draft overall. If not for being so consistently terrible, the 2005 Chicago draft would have to go down as one of the worst of all time. In the first four rounds they picked

1 (7) - Jack Skille
2 (43) - Michael Blunden
2 (54) - Dan Bertram
3 (68) - Evan Brophey
4 (108) - Nicklas Hjalmarsson
4 (113) - Nathan Davis
4 (117) - Denis Istomin

They turned 7 picks in the first 4 rounds on a 4th liner and a 2nd-pair D man. Hjalmarsson is a nice pick, but thats woeful.

In 2004, they were similarly bad.

1 (3) - Cam Barker (right after AO and Malkin lol)
2 (32) - Dave Bolland
2 (41) - Brian Bickell
2 (45) - Ryan Garlock
2 (54) - Jakub Sindel

A couple of depth guys, and Troy Brouwer later was a decent pick, but you have to do better than that with 5 picks that early. The 2004 and 2005 drafts, if not for the continued terrible play the next two years, would have set Chicago back a decade had they not continued to tank. The Oilers have been about equally bad at drafting, but they haven't had the opportunity to draft those generational players - until McDavid.

Pete
03-14-2016, 03:42 PM
The only difference between EDM and Chicago & Pitt is that the latter two actually won. They all did the same thing. Tanking has been a part of the game for what, 15 years now? It just seems wildly hypocritical to make EDM the scapegoat for trying to change the draft when they're just copying the model that was built by the team that the league markets harder than anyone else.

Chicago had top-3 picks in 3 out of 4 years, and picked 7th in that 4th year. I mean, imagine how good they could have been if they didn't totally fuck up by drafting Cam Barker 3rd or Jack Skille 7th - although that was a pretty terrible draft overall. If not for being so consistently terrible, the 2005 Chicago draft would have to go down as one of the worst of all time. In the first four rounds they picked

1 (7) - Jack Skille
2 (43) - Michael Blunden
2 (54) - Dan Bertram
3 (68) - Evan Brophey
4 (108) - Nicklas Hjalmarsson
4 (113) - Nathan Davis
4 (117) - Denis Istomin

They turned 7 picks in the first 4 rounds on a 4th liner and a 2nd-pair D man. Hjalmarsson is a nice pick, but thats woeful.

In 2004, they were similarly bad.

1 (3) - Cam Barker (right after AO and Malkin lol)
2 (32) - Dave Bolland
2 (41) - Brian Bickell
2 (45) - Ryan Garlock
2 (54) - Jakub Sindel

A couple of depth guys, and Troy Brouwer later was a decent pick, but you have to do better than that with 5 picks that early. The 2004 and 2005 drafts, if not for the continued terrible play the next two years, would have set Chicago back a decade had they not continued to tank. The Oilers have been about equally bad at drafting, but they haven't had the opportunity to draft those generational players - until McDavid.
Those list all have key playoff performers though. Couldn't one argue they don't win without Bolland and Bickell?

Future
03-14-2016, 03:50 PM
Those list all have key playoff performers though. Couldn't one argue they don't win without Bolland and Bickell?
I wouldn't.

Both had a good run in separate years, but weren't catalysts for winning. Good supplemental players but, without those other top-end guys, they're nothing particularly special.

Morphinity
03-14-2016, 03:51 PM
Holy shit Cam Barker :disappointed:

Pete
03-14-2016, 03:52 PM
I wouldn't.

Both had a good run in separate years, but weren't catalysts for winning. Good supplemental players but, without those other top-end guys, they're nothing particularly special.
But that's my point. Both were top end depth scorers and their games were suited for playoffs. Bolland especially.

Pete
03-14-2016, 03:56 PM
Too many rules. Too many details.

Want the fairest possible outcome? Disincentivize the entire process of tanking by giving every team who makes the playoffs an equal opportunity at selecting first overall.

Much as I'd hate to see Edmonton win again, they aren't doing anything wrong here according to the letter of the law. This is the way the system is designed. You can argue they are exploiting it, but the number of personnel they've fired int he last few years says otherwise. They just suck.

Not only that, but so what if you don't get to draft first and you draft 2nd...Is there that big a difference? Most years there isn't.

Pete
03-14-2016, 03:58 PM
Holy shit Cam Barker :disappointed:

40 points in 55 KHL games this season!

Phil in Absentia
03-14-2016, 04:07 PM
Not only that, but so what if you don't get to draft first and you draft 2nd...Is there that big a difference? Most years there isn't.

Eh, I dunno. I think there's probably a decent measure between the two in most years. But the real drop-off starts at 5 onward, generally.

Future
03-14-2016, 04:19 PM
But that's my point. Both were top end depth scorers and their games were suited for playoffs. Bolland especially.
Both had one good year during a cup run, so yea they were good picks in that regard.

But, with those entire drafts, they didn't get a top 6 forward and got 1 top-4 defender. With that many picks in 2 years, you have to do better than that I think. So my point is that without those other two drafts, these ones are huge misses and really costly.

Dunny
03-14-2016, 04:21 PM
2 of Edmonton's 1st overall choices were bad though. One is a fringey 2C and the other will likely be in the KHL within 3 years. They got jobbed a bit in the sense that it was never a Malkin/Crosby or Kane/Toews that fell in their lap.

!br-avery!
03-14-2016, 04:27 PM
Id love Hall or Eberle on rangers

Phil in Absentia
03-14-2016, 04:33 PM
Hall was one of those, but I still maintain their issue wasn't their first-overall picks. It's the fact they play in a winter desert that no one who isn't effectively forced to play there because of drafting/RFA restrictions wants to play in. They have had a really hard time surrounding those kids with effective veteran players the way Chicago, for example, was able to get Brian Campbell and Marian Hossa.

Worse yet, when they did, those players always forced their way out, or just didn't pan out. Pronger, Souray and Ference.

ThirtyONE
03-14-2016, 04:59 PM
Hall was one of those, but I still maintain their issue wasn't their first-overall picks. It's the fact they play in a winter desert that no one who isn't effectively forced to play there because of drafting/RFA restrictions wants to play in. They have had a really hard time surrounding those kids with effective veteran players the way Chicago, for example, was able to get Brian Campbell and Marian Hossa.

Worse yet, when they did, those players always forced their way out, or just didn't pan out. Pronger, Souray and Ference.

"If you pay them, they will come."

Dunny
03-14-2016, 04:59 PM
"If you pay them, they will come."

You can't pay them, it's a hard cap league.

Phil in Absentia
03-14-2016, 05:06 PM
"If you pay them, they will come."

Not really. All that leads to is signing Andrej Sekera instead of someone actaully worth $5M+ a year.

If you pay mediocre players, they'll come. Superstars still spurn cities like Edmonton and Winnipeg by default, becasue they have no interest in living in winter deserts when far more attractive and lucrative cities like New York, Toronto, Philadelphia, etc. are calling.